Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
Research article
 | 
10 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 10 Oct 2025

Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years

Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann

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Cited articles

Applegate, P. J., Parizek, B. R., Nicholas, R. E., Alley, R. B., and Keller, K.: Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2001–2011, 2015. a
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Beckmann, J. and Winkelmann, R.: Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023. a
Beckmann, J., Perrette, M., Beyer, S., Calov, R., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model, The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019. a, b
Bevis, M., Harig, C., Khan, S. A., Brown, A., Simons, F. J., Willis, M., and Nylen, T.: Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1934–1939, 2019. a
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Short summary
This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
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