Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 03 Sep 2025
| 03 Sep 2025
Modelling the evolution of permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness in King George Island, Antarctica, since 1950
Joana Pedro Baptista
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre of Geographical Studies, Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, 1600-276, Portugal
Gonçalo Brito Guapo Teles Vieira
Centre of Geographical Studies, Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, 1600-276, Portugal
António Manuel de Carvalho Soares Correia
Division of Life Science, Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), Incheon, 21990, South Korea
Hyoungseok Lee
Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Évora, Évora, 7000-671, Portugal
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
No articles found.
Clarissa Willmes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3142, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
In permafrost areas, the spatial variability of the snow cover significantly affects the ground thermal regime. This study presents an algorithm that integrates satellite data into a permafrost model to enhance the spatial detail of ground temperature simulations. At a site on Svalbard, the algorithm improves simulations of ground temperatures especially for wind-blown ridges with little snow, as well as snow-drift sites.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
The Cryosphere, 19, 3831–3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3831-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we showcase the use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2, which is able to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the importance of these water resources. We can update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of the approach to improve snow simulations, in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Jacqueline K. Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
Biogeosciences, 22, 3899–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly owing to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2, driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
Anfisa Pismeniuk, Peter Dörsch, Mats Ippach, Clarissa Willmes, Sunniva Sheffield, Norbert Pirk, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Thermokarst ponds in high latitudes are important methane (CH4) sources in summer. Meanwhile, these lakes are ice-covered for around 60 % of the year and can accumulate CH4 in the ice and within the underlying water column, which potentially results in high emissions during the ice-off. Here, we present data on wintertime CH4 storage of ponds located within two peat plateaus in Northern Norway. Our results show that the wintertime CH4 storage can contribute up to 40 % to the annual CH4 budget.
Robin B. Zweigel, Dashtseren Avirmed, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Two years of data along a forest disturbance gradient in Mongolia show a larger annual ground surface temperature range in dead and logged forests than intact forest, while the range is dampened in stands of young regrowth. Compared to intact forest, mean annual ground surface temperatures are 0.5 °C colder in dead and logged forest and dense stands of young regrowth. This is linked to differences in vegetation and surface cover due to the disturbance and patterns in livestock activity.
Lotte Wendt, Line Rouyet, Hanne H. Christiansen, Tom Rune Lauknes, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2972, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In permafrost environments, the ground surface moves due to the formation and melt of ice in the ground. This study compares ground surface displacements measured from satellite images against field data of ground ice contents. We find good agreement between the detected seasonal subsidence and observed ground ice melt. Our results show the potential of satellite remote sensing for mapping ground ice variability, but also indicate that ice in excess of the pore space must be considered.
Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Mohammad Farzamian, Teddi Herring, Gonçalo Vieira, Miguel Angel de Pablo, Borhan Yaghoobi Tabar, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4197–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An automated electrical resistivity tomography (A-ERT) system was developed and deployed in Antarctica to monitor permafrost and active-layer dynamics. The A-ERT, coupled with an efficient processing workflow, demonstrated its capability to monitor real-time thaw depth progression, detect seasonal and surficial freezing–thawing events, and assess permafrost stability. Our study showcased the potential of A-ERT to contribute to global permafrost monitoring networks.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
C. Soncco, G. Vieira, G. Goyanes, and E. Castro
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2022, 553–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-553-2022, 2022
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Gonçalo Vieira, Carla Mora, Pedro Pina, Ricardo Ramalho, and Rui Fernandes
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3179–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fogo in Cabo Verde is one of the most active ocean island volcanoes on Earth, posing important hazards to local populations and at a regional level. The last eruption occurred from November 2014 to February 2015. A survey of the Chã das Caldeiras area was conducted using a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle. A point cloud, digital surface model and orthomosaic with 10 and 25 cm resolutions are provided, together with the full aerial survey projects and datasets.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Cited articles
Baptista, J.: Parameters files, forcing data and observatory data used in “Modelling the evolution of permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness in King George Island, Antarctica, since 1950”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16949851, 2025.
Baptista, J., Vieira, G., and Lee, H.: Ground surface temperature regimes are controlled by the topography and snow cover in the ice-free areas of Maritime Antarctica, Catena (Amst), 240, 107947, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2024.107947, 2024.
Bevan, S., Luckman, A., Hendon, H., and Wang, G.: The 2020 Larsen C Ice Shelf surface melt is a 40-year record high, The Cryosphere, 14, 3551–3564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3551-2020, 2020.
Birkenmajer, K.: A guide to Tertiary geochronology of King George Island, West Antarctica, Pol. Polar Res., 10, 555–579, 1989.
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J. P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 264, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019.
Bockheim, J., Vieira, G., Ramos, M., López-Martínez, J., Serrano, E., Guglielmin, M., Wilhelm, K., and Nieuwendam, A.: Climate warming and permafrost dynamics in the Antarctic Peninsula region, Global Planet. Change, 100, 215–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.018, 2013.
Bozkurt, D., Bromwich, D. H., Carrasco, J., and Rondanelli, R.: Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3853–3874, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2, 2021.
Bozkurt, D., Marín, J. C., and Barrett, B. S.: Temperature and moisture transport during atmospheric blocking patterns around the Antarctic Peninsula, Weather Clim. Extrem., 38, 100506, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100506, 2022.
Colwell, S.: Surface meteorology at British Antarctic Survey Stations, 1947–2013, Version 1.0, [Met READER], https://legacy.bas.ac.uk/met/READER/surface/stationpt.html (last access: 29 November 2023), 2013.
de Pablo, M. A., Ramos, M., Molina, A., Vieira, G., Hidalgo, M. A., Prieto, M., Jiménez, J. J., Fernández, S., Recondo, C., Calleja, J. F., Peón, J. J., and Mora, C.: Frozen ground and snow cover monitoring in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica: Instrumentation, effects on ground thermal behaviour and future research, Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 42, 475, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.2917, 2016.
de Pablo, M. A., Jiménez, J. J., Ramos, M., Prieto, M., Molina, A., Vieira, G., Hidalgo, M. A., Fernández, S., Recondo, C., Calleja, J. F., Peón, J. J., Corbea-Pérez, A., Maior, C. N., Morales, M., and Mora, C.: Frozen ground and snow cover monitoring in Livingston and Deception islands, Antarctica: preliminary results of the 2015-2019 PERMASNOW project, Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 46, 187–222, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4381, 2020.
de Pablo, M. A., Ramos, M., Vieira, G., Molina, A., Ramos, R., Maior, C. N., Prieto, M., and Ruiz-Fernández, J.: Interannual variability of ground surface thermal regimes in Livingston and Deception islands, Antarctica (2007–2021), Land Degrad. Dev., 35, 378–393, https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4922, 2024.
Ferreira, A., Vieira, G., Ramos, M., and Nieuwendam, A.: Ground temperature and permafrost distribution in Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island, Maritime Antarctic): An assessment using freezing indexes and TTOP modelling, Catena, 149, 560–571, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.08.027, 2017.
Gisnås, K., Etzelmüller, B., Farbrot, H., Schuler, T. V., and Westermann, S.: CryoGRID 1.0: Permafrost Distribution in Norway estimated by a Spatial Numerical Model, Permafrost Periglac., 24, 2–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1765, 2013.
González-Herrero, S., Barriopedro, D., Trigo, R. M., López-Bustins, J. A., and Oliva, M.: Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 122, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00450-5, 2022.
Gorodetskaya, I. V, Durán-Alarcón, C., González-Herrero, S., Clem, K. R., Zou, X., Rowe, P., Imazio, P. R., Campos, D., Santos, C. L.-D., Dutrievoz, N., Wille, J. D., Chyhareva, A., Favier, V., Blanchet, J., Pohl, B., Cordero, R. R., Park, S.-J., Colwell, S., Lazzara, M. A., Carrasco, J., Gulisano, A. M., Krakovska, S., Ralph, F. M., Dethinne, T., and Picard, G.: Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 202, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6, 2023.
Guglielmin, M. and Cannone, N.: A permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica?, Climatic Change, 111, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0137-2, 2012.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hrbáček, F., Vieira, G., Oliva, M., Balks, M., Guglielmin, M., de Pablo, M. Á., Molina, A., Ramos, M., Goyanes, G., Meiklejohn, I., Abramov, A., Demidov, N., Fedorov-Davydov, D., Lupachev, A., Rivkina, E., Láska, K., Knǎžková, M., Nývlt, D., Raffi, R., Strelin, J., Sone, T., Fukui, K., Dolgikh, A., Zazovskaya, E., Mergelov, N., Osokin, N., and Miamin, V.: Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015, Polar Geography, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2017.1420105, 2018.
Hrbáček, F., Oliva, M., Fernández, J. R., Kňažková, M., and de Pablo, M. A.: Modelling ground thermal regime in bordering (dis)continuous permafrost environments, Environ. Res., 181, 108901, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.108901, 2020.
Hrbáček, F., Vieira, G., Oliva, M., Balks, M., Guglielmin, M., de Pablo, M. Á., Molina, A., Ramos, M., Goyanes, G., Meiklejohn, I., Abramov, A., Demidov, N., Fedorov-Davydov, D., Lupachev, A., Rivkina, E., Láska, K., Kňažková, M., Nývlt, D., Raffi, R., Strelin, J., Sone, T., Fukui, K., Dolgikh, A., Zazovskaya, E., Mergelov, N., Osokin, N., and Miamin, V.: Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015, Polar Geography, 44, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2017.1420105, 2021.
Hrbáček, F., Oliva, M., Hansen, C., Balks, M., O'Neill, T. A., de Pablo, M. A., Ponti, S., Ramos, M., Vieira, G., Abramov, A., Kaplan Pastíriková, L., Guglielmin, M., Goyanes, G., Francelino, M. R., Schaefer, C., and Lacelle, D.: Active layer and permafrost thermal regimes in the ice-free areas of Antarctica, Earth Sci. Rev., 242, 104458, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104458, 2023.
Hwang, J., Zheng, X., Ripley, E. M., Lee, J.-I., and Shin, D.: Isotope geochemistry of volcanic rocks from the Barton Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica, Journal of Earth Science, 22, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-011-0156-y, 2011.
Jones, P. D. and Lister, D. H.: Antarctic near-surface air temperatures compared with ERA-Interim values since 1979, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 1354–1366, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4061, 2015.
Jones, M. E., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., Carrasco, J., Plavcová, E., Zou, X., and Wang, S.-H.: Sixty Years of Widespread Warming in the Southern Middle and High Latitudes (1957–2016), J Clim, 32, 6875–6898, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0565.1, 2019.
Karunaratne, K. C. and Burn, C. R.: Relations between air and surface temperature in discontinuous permafrost terrain near Mayo, Yukon Territory, Can. J. Earth Sci., 41, 1437–1451, https://doi.org/10.1139/E04-082, 2004.
Kim, H., Cho, M., and Lee, J.-I.: Thermal metamorphism of volcanic rocks on Barton Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica, Geosci. J., 6, 303–317, 2002.
Kim, J., Cho, H. K., Jung, Y. J., Lee, Y. G., and Lee, B. Y.: Surface Energy Balance at Sejong Station, King George Island, Antarctica, Atmosphere (Basel), 16, 111–124, 2006.
Klene, A. E., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., and Hinkel, K. M.: The N-factor in Natural Landscapes: Variability of Air and Soil-Surface Temperatures, Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, U.S.A., Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 33, 140–148, https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2001.12003416, 2001.
Lim, H. S., Kim, H. C., Kim, O. S., Jung, H., Lee, J., and Hong, S. G.: Statistical understanding for snow cover effects on near-surface ground temperature at the margin of maritime Antarctica, King George Island, Geoderma, 410, 115661, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2021.115661, 2022.
Lunardini, V. J.: Theory of N-factors, in: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Permafrost, 40–46, 1978.
Martin, L. C. P., Nitzbon, J., Aas, K. S., Etzelmüller, B., Kristiansen, H., and Westermann, S.: Stability Conditions of Peat Plateaus and Palsas in Northern Norway, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 705–719, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004945, 2019.
Obu, J., Westermann, S., Vieira, G., Abramov, A., Balks, M. R., Bartsch, A., Hrbáček, F., Kääb, A., and Ramos, M.: Pan-Antarctic map of near-surface permafrost temperatures at 1 km2 scale, The Cryosphere, 14, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, 2020.
Oliva, M., Antoniades, D., Serrano, E., Giralt, S., Liu, E. J., Granados, I., Pla-Rabes, S., Toro, M., Hong, S. G., and Vieira, G.: The deglaciation of Barton Peninsula (King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica) based on geomorphological evidence and lacustrine records, Polar Rec., 55, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0032247419000469, 2019.
Østby, T. I., Schuler, T. V., and Westermann, S.: Severe cloud contamination of MODIS Land Surface Temperatures over an Arctic ice cap, Svalbard, Remote Sens. Environ., 142, 95–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.11.005, 2014.
Ramos, M., Vieira, G., de Pablo, M. A., Molina, A., Abramov, A., and Goyanes, G.: Recent shallowing of the thaw depth at Crater Lake, Deception Island, Antarctica (2006–2014), Catena, 149, 519–528, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.019, 2017.
Renette, C., Aalstad, K., Aga, J., Zweigel, R. B., Etzelmüller, B., Lilleøren, K. S., Isaksen, K., and Westermann, S.: Simulating the effect of subsurface drainage on the thermal regime and ground ice in blocky terrain in Norway, Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023.
Romanovsky, V. E., Smith, S. L., and Christiansen, H. H.: Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007–2009: a synthesis, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 106–116, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.689, 2010.
Schmidt, J. U., Etzelmüller, B., Schuler, T. V., Magnin, F., Boike, J., Langer, M., and Westermann, S.: Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard, The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021.
Smith, M. W. and Riseborough, D. W.: Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change, Permafrost Periglac., 7, 301–309, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199610)7:4<301::AID-PPP231>3.0.CO;2-R, 1996.
Smith, S. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Burn, C. R., Allard, M., Clow, G. D., Yoshikawa, K., and Throop, J.: Thermal state of permafrost in North America: a contribution to the international polar year, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 117–135, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.690, 2010.
Stuenzi, S. M., Boike, J., Cable, W., Herzschuh, U., Kruse, S., Pestryakova, L. A., Schneider von Deimling, T., Westermann, S., Zakharov, E. S., and Langer, M.: Variability of the surface energy balance in permafrost-underlain boreal forest, Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021.
Tetzner, D., Thomas, E., and Allen, C.: A Validation of ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula–Ellsworth Land Region, and Its Implications for Ice Core Studies, Geosciences (Basel), 9, 289, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9070289, 2019.
Turner, J., Lu, H., White, I., King, J. C., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J., Mulvaney, R., and Deb, P.: Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability, Nature, 535, 411–415, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645, 2016.
Turner, J., Marshall, G. J., Clem, K., Colwell, S., Phillips, T., and Lu, H.: Antarctic temperature variability and change from station data, International J. Climatol., 40, 2986–3007, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6378, 2020.
Vaughan, D. G., Marshall, G. J., Connolley, W. M., Parkinson, C., Mulvaney, R., Hodgson, D. A., King, J. C., Pudsey, C. J., and Turner, J.: Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, Climatic Change, 60, 243–274, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026021217991, 2003.
Vieira, G., Bockheim, J., Guglielmin, M., Balks, M., Abramov, A. A., Boelhouwers, J., Cannone, N., Ganzert, L., Gilichinsky, D. A., Goryachkin, S., López-Martínez, J., Meiklejohn, I., Raffi, R., Ramos, M., Schaefer, C., Serrano, E., Simas, F., Sletten, R., and Wagner, D.: Thermal state of permafrost and active-layer monitoring in the antarctic: Advances during the international polar year 2007–2009, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.685, 2010.
Vionnet, V., Brun, E., Morin, S., Boone, A., Faroux, S., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., and Willemet, J.-M.: The detailed snowpack scheme Crocus and its implementation in SURFEX v7.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 773–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-773-2012, 2012.
Westermann, S.: Parameter files and code for simulations in “The CryoGrid community model – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere”, GMD-2022-127, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6522424, 2022.
Westermann, S., Østby, T. I., Gisnås, K., Schuler, T. V., and Etzelmüller, B.: A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data, The Cryosphere, 9, 1303–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, 2015.
Westermann, S., Langer, M., Boike, J., Heikenfeld, M., Peter, M., Etzelmüller, B., and Krinner, G.: Simulating the thermal regime and thaw processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model CryoGrid 3, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016.
Westermann, S., Peter, M., Langer, M., Schwamborn, G., Schirrmeister, L., Etzelmüller, B., and Boike, J.: Transient modeling of the ground thermal conditions using satellite data in the Lena River delta, Siberia, The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017.
Westermann, S., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Scheer, J., Aalstad, K., Aga, J., Chaudhary, N., Etzelmüller, B., Filhol, S., Kääb, A., Renette, C., Schmidt, L. S., Schuler, T. V., Zweigel, R. B., Martin, L., Morard, S., Ben-Asher, M., Angelopoulos, M., Boike, J., Groenke, B., Miesner, F., Nitzbon, J., Overduin, P., Stuenzi, S. M., and Langer, M.: The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere, Geosci Model Dev, 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023.
Xie, A., Zhu, J., Qin, X., and Wang, S.: The Antarctic Amplification Based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature and ERA5, Remote Sens. (Basel), 15, 3540, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15143540, 2023.
Zhu, J., Xie, A., Qin, X., Wang, Y., Xu, B., and Wang, Y.: An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature, Atmosphere (Basel), 12, 217, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020217, 2021.
Zou, X., Rowe, P. M., Gorodetskaya, I., Bromwich, D. H., Lazzara, M. A., Cordero, R. R., Zhang, Z., Kawzenuk, B., Cordeira, J. M., Wille, J. D., Ralph, F. M., and Bai, L. S.: Strong Warming Over the Antarctic Peninsula During Combined Atmospheric River and Foehn Events: Contribution of Shortwave Radiation and Turbulence, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD038138, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038138, 2023.
Zweigel, R. B., Westermann, S., Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Boike, J., Etzelmüller, B., and Schuler, T. V.: Simulating Snow Redistribution and its Effect on Ground Surface Temperature at a High-Arctic Site on Svalbard, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2020JF005673, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005673, 2021.
Short summary
Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is...
