Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 07 Feb 2023
| 07 Feb 2023
Snow cover prediction in the Italian central Apennines using weather forecast and land surface numerical models
Edoardo Raparelli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dept. Information Engineering, Electronics and Telecommunications, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
Center of Excellence Telesensing of Environment and Model Prediction of Severe Events (CETEMPS), L'Aquila, Italy
Paolo Tuccella
Center of Excellence Telesensing of Environment and Model Prediction of Severe Events (CETEMPS), L'Aquila, Italy
Dept. Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Italian Glaciological Committee, Turin, Italy
Valentina Colaiuda
Center of Excellence Telesensing of Environment and Model Prediction of Severe Events (CETEMPS), L'Aquila, Italy
Dept. Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Frank S. Marzano
Dept. Information Engineering, Electronics and Telecommunications, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
Center of Excellence Telesensing of Environment and Model Prediction of Severe Events (CETEMPS), L'Aquila, Italy
deceased
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Paolo Tuccella, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Colaiuda, Edoardo Raparelli, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6875–6893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6875-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6875-2021, 2021
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We calculate the radiation-absorbing aerosol quantity in snow with a global chemical and transport atmospheric model, validated with global observations. The perturbation to snow albedo and related climatic impact are assessed. The resulting average radiative flux change in snow is 0.068 W m−2. Black carbon is a major contributor (+0.033 W m−2), followed by dust (+0.012 W m−2) and brown carbon (+0.0066 W m−2). The impact is also characterized by significant seasonal and geographical variability.
Adrien Deroubaix, Marco Vountas, Benjamin Gaubert, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, Stephan Borrmann, Guy Brasseur, Bruna Holanda, Yugo Kanaya, Katharina Kaiser, Flora Kluge, Ovid Oktavian Krüger, Inga Labuhn, Michael Lichtenstern, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Mira Pöhlker, Hans Schlager, Johannes Schneider, Guillaume Siour, Basudev Swain, Paolo Tuccella, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Benjamin Weyland, and John P. Burrows
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Adrien Deroubaix, Marco Vountas, Benjamin Gaubert, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, Stephan Borrmann, Guy Brasseur, Bruna Holanda, Yugo Kanaya, Katharina Kaiser, Flora Kluge, Ovid Oktavian Krüger, Inga Labuhn, Michael Lichtenstern, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Mira Pöhlker, Hans Schlager, Johannes Schneider, Guillaume Siour, Basudev Swain, Paolo Tuccella, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Benjamin Weyland, and John P. Burrows
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This study explores the proportional relationships between carbonaceous aerosols (black and organic carbon) and trace gases using airborne measurements from two campaigns in Europe and East Asia. Differences between regions were found, but air quality models struggled to reproduce them accurately. We show that these proportional relationships can help to constrain models and can be used to infer aerosol concentrations from satellite observations of trace gases, especially in urban areas.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
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Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
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During the summer monsoon in West Africa, pollutants emitted in urbanized areas modify cloud cover and precipitation patterns. We analyze these patterns with the WRF-CHIMERE model, integrating the effects of aerosols on meteorology, based on the numerous observations provided by the Dynamics-Aerosol-Climate-Interactions campaign. This study adds evidence to recent findings that increased pollution levels in West Africa delay the breakup time of low-level clouds and reduce precipitation.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Régis Briant, Arineh Cholakian, Florian Couvidat, Sylvain Mailler, Romain Pennel, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, Solène Turquety, and Myrto Valari
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6781–6811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6781-2021, 2021
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The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is presented in its new version, V2020r1. Many changes are proposed compared to the previous version. These include online modeling, new parameterizations for aerosols, new emissions schemes, a new parameter file format, the subgrid-scale variability of urban concentrations and new transport schemes.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
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Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
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Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2737-2021, 2021
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Laura Palacios-Peña, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Rocío Baró, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bianconi, Gabriele Curci, Tony Christian Landi, Guido Pirovano, Marje Prank, Angelo Riccio, Paolo Tuccella, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2965–2990, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2965-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2965-2019, 2019
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Gabriele Curci, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Rocio Barò, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Aidan Farrow, Xavier Francis, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Peng Liu, Astrid Manders, Laura Palacios-Peña, Marje Prank, Luca Pozzoli, Ranjeet Sokhi, Efisio Solazzo, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols are able to absorb solar radiation and they continue to contribute some of the largest uncertainties in projected climate change. One important detail is how the chemical species are arranged inside each particle, i.e. the knowledge of their mixing state. We use an ensemble of regional model simulations to test different mixing state assumptions and found that a combination of internal and external mixing may better reproduce sunphotometer observations.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15183–15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, 2018
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Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Paolo Tuccella, and Gabriele Curci
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2787–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2787-2018, 2018
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Sulfate geoengineering is a proposed technique that would mimic explosive volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere to counteract global warming produced by greenhouse gases by reflecting part of the incoming solar radiation. In this study we use two models to simulate how the injected aerosols would react to dynamical changes in the stratosphere (due to the quasi-biennial oscillation - QBO) and how this would affect the deposition of sulfate at the surface.
Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Christian Hogrefe, Gabriele Curci, Paolo Tuccella, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augistin Colette, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Astrid Manders, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alper Unal, Greg Yarwood, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3001–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, 2017
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As part of the third phase of AQMEII, this study uses timescale analysis to apportion error to the responsible processes, detect causes of model error, and identify the processes and scales that require dedicated investigations. The analysis tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of model biases for ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature over Europe and North America.
I. Maiello, R. Ferretti, S. Gentile, M. Montopoli, E. Picciotti, F. S. Marzano, and C. Faccani
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2919–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2919-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2919-2014, 2014
M. Montopoli, G. Vulpiani, D. Cimini, E. Picciotti, and F. S. Marzano
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 537–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-537-2014, 2014
E. Picciotti, F. S. Marzano, E. N. Anagnostou, J. Kalogiros, Y. Fessas, A. Volpi, V. Cazac, R. Pace, G. Cinque, L. Bernardini, K. De Sanctis, S. Di Fabio, M. Montopoli, M. N. Anagnostou, A. Telleschi, E. Dimitriou, and J. Stella
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1229–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1229-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1229-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamp-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, 2023
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations by disentangling error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation forcings and unresolved subgrid variability. We evaluated simulated snow cover against snow depths from Pléiades stereo-imagery and Snow Melt-Out Dates from Sentinel 2. The simulation of snow transport enhances the snow spatial variance at high elevations while precipitation biases are the prevailing error source in other areas.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2071, 2023
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Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed a remarkable improvement of the snow distribution in mountains of the Eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-30, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
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This paper presents the development of a numerical model to study the mechanical behaviour of snow at microscale. The numerical model has shown good capabilities to reproduce experimental Cone Penetration Test measurements. It is a promising tool for future investigation to better characterise the snow material. Applications of the numerical model are various such as snowpack characterisation, high resolution snow force profile interpretation or avalanches forecasting for instance.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 16, 3149–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, 2022
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We present an averaging algorithm for multidimensional snow stratigraphy profiles that elicits the predominant snow layering among large numbers of profiles and allows for compiling of informative summary statistics and distributions of snowpack layer properties. This creates new opportunities for presenting and analyzing operational snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting and may inspire new ways of processing profiles and time series in other geophysical contexts.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Konstantin Schürholt, Julia Kowalski, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 16, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-903-2022, 2022
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This companion paper deals with numerical particularities of partial differential equations underlying 1D snow models. In this first part we neglect mechanical settling and demonstrate that the nonlinear coupling between diffusive transport (heat and vapor), phase changes and ice mass conservation contains a wave instability that may be relevant for weak layer formation. Numerical requirements are discussed in view of the underlying homogenization scheme.
Anna Simson, Henning Löwe, and Julia Kowalski
The Cryosphere, 15, 5423–5445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5423-2021, 2021
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This companion paper deals with numerical particularities of partial differential equations underlying one-dimensional snow models. In this second part we include mechanical settling and develop a new hybrid (Eulerian–Lagrangian) method for solving the advection-dominated ice mass conservation on a moving mesh alongside Eulerian diffusion (heat and vapor) and phase changes. The scheme facilitates a modular and extendable solver strategy while retaining controls on numerical accuracy.
Thomas Brall, Vladimir Mares, Rolf Bütikofer, and Werner Rühm
The Cryosphere, 15, 4769–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4769-2021, 2021
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Neutrons from secondary cosmic rays, measured at 2660 m a.s.l. at Zugspitze, Germany, are highly affected by the environment, in particular by snow, soil moisture, and mountain shielding. To quantify these effects, computer simulations were carried out, including a sensitivity analysis on snow depth and soil moisture. This provides a possibility for snow depth estimation based on the measured number of secondary neutrons. This method was applied at Zugspitze in 2018.
Nora Helbig, Michael Schirmer, Jan Magnusson, Flavia Mäder, Alec van Herwijnen, Louis Quéno, Yves Bühler, Jeff S. Deems, and Simon Gascoin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4607–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, 2021
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The snow cover spatial variability in mountains changes considerably over the course of a snow season. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions the fractional snow-covered area is therefore an essential parameter characterizing how much of the ground surface in a grid cell is currently covered by snow. We present a seasonal algorithm and a spatiotemporal evaluation suggesting that the algorithm can be applied in other geographic regions by any snow model application.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Louis Quéno, Charles Fierz, Alec van Herwijnen, Dylan Longridge, and Nander Wever
The Cryosphere, 14, 3449–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, 2020
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Deep ice layers may form in the snowpack due to preferential water flow with impacts on the snowpack mechanical, hydrological and thermodynamical properties. We studied their formation and evolution at a high-altitude alpine site, combining a comprehensive observation dataset at a daily frequency (with traditional snowpack observations, penetration resistance and radar measurements) and detailed snowpack modeling, including a new parameterization of ice formation in the 1-D SNOWPACK model.
David M. W. Pritchard, Nathan Forsythe, Greg O'Donnell, Hayley J. Fowler, and Nick Rutter
The Cryosphere, 14, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1225-2020, 2020
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This study compares different snowpack model configurations applied in the western Himalaya. The results show how even sparse local observations can help to delineate climate input errors from model structure errors, which provides insights into model performance variation. The results also show how interactions between processes affect sensitivities to climate variability in different model configurations, with implications for model selection in climate change projections.
Grégoire Bobillier, Bastian Bergfeld, Achille Capelli, Jürg Dual, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 39–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020, 2020
Michael A. Rawlins, Lei Cai, Svetlana L. Stuefer, and Dmitry Nicolsky
The Cryosphere, 13, 3337–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019, 2019
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We investigate the changing character of runoff, river discharge and other hydrological elements across watershed draining the North Slope of Alaska over the period 1981–2010. Our synthesis of observations and modeling reveals significant increases in the proportion of subsurface runoff and cold season discharge. These and other changes we describe are consistent with warming and thawing permafrost, and have implications for water, carbon and nutrient cycling in coastal environments.
Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 13, 1325–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in the Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) and the French Alps under past and future conditions (1950–2100) using state-of-the-art climate projections and snowpack modelling accounting for snow management, i.e. grooming and snowmaking. The snow reliability of ski resorts shows strong elevation and regional differences, and our study quantifies changes in snow reliability induced by snowmaking under various climate scenarios.
Zhengshi Wang and Shuming Jia
The Cryosphere, 12, 3841–3851, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3841-2018, 2018
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Drifting snowstorms that are hundreds of meters in depth are reproduced using a large-eddy simulation model combined with a Lagrangian particle tracking method, which also exhibits obvious spatial structures following large-scale turbulent vortexes. The horizontal snow transport flux at high altitude, previously not observed, actually occupies a significant proportion of the total flux. Thus, previous models may largely underestimate the total mass flux and consequently snow sublimation.
Franziska Gerber, Nikola Besic, Varun Sharma, Rebecca Mott, Megan Daniels, Marco Gabella, Alexis Berne, Urs Germann, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 12, 3137–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3137-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3137-2018, 2018
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A comparison of winter precipitation variability in operational radar measurements and high-resolution simulations reveals that large-scale variability is well captured by the model, depending on the event. Precipitation variability is driven by topography and wind. A good portion of small-scale variability is captured at the highest resolution. This is essential to address small-scale precipitation processes forming the alpine snow seasonal snow cover – an important source of water.
Edward H. Bair, Andre Abreu Calfa, Karl Rittger, and Jeff Dozier
The Cryosphere, 12, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1579-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1579-2018, 2018
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In Afghanistan, almost no snow measurements exist. Operational estimates use measurements from satellites, but all have limitations. We have developed a satellite-based technique called reconstruction that accurately estimates the snowpack retrospectively. To solve the problem of estimating today's snowpack, we used machine learning, trained on our reconstructed snow estimates, using predictors that are available today. Our results show low errors, demonstrating the utility of this approach.
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Short summary
We evaluate the skills of a single-layer (Noah) and a multi-layer (Alpine3D) snow model, forced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to reproduce snowpack properties observed in the Italian central Apennines. We found that Alpine3D reproduces the observed snow height and snow water equivalent better than Noah, while no particular model differences emerge on snow cover extent. Finally, we observed that snow settlement is mainly due to densification in Alpine3D and to melting in Noah.
We evaluate the skills of a single-layer (Noah) and a multi-layer (Alpine3D) snow model, forced...
