Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2343-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2343-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 12 Jun 2023
| 12 Jun 2023
Strategies for regional modeling of surface mass balance at the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego
Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91058, Germany
David Farías-Barahona
Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción,
Concepción, 4030000, Chile
Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91058, Germany
Thorsten Seehaus
Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91058, Germany
Ricardo Jaña
Departamento Científico, Instituto Antártico Chileno, Punta
Arenas, 6200000, Chile
Jorge Arigony-Neto
Instituto de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio
Grande, 96203, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia da Criosfera, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Porto Alegre, 91501-970, Brazil
Inti Gonzalez
Centro de Estudios del Cuaternario de Fuego-Patagonia y
Antárctica, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile
Programa Doctorado Ciencias Antárticas y Subantárticas,
Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile
Anselm Arndt
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Tobias Sauter
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Christoph Schneider
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany
Johannes J. Fürst
Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91058, Germany
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Wilhelm Furian and Tobias Sauter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3779–3802, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025, 2025
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) continue to threaten high-mountain communities in Nepal. We simulate potential GLOF events from five glacial lakes in the Everest region during the 21st century using a 3D flood model and several breach and SSP scenarios. Large GLOFs could extend over 100 km and inundate 80 to 100 km of roads/trails, 735 to 1989 houses and 0.85 to 3.52 km2 of agricultural land. The results help to assess the changing GLOF impacts and support more accurate risk assessments.
Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167, 2025
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The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 25 % of its mass during this century. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is 36 % until 2200 and up to 68 % under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario.
Johannes J. Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3559–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3559-2025, 2025
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice–rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris flow, causing the loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event, combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In that year, important snow cover coincided with persistent warm periods in spring. We also put forward upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes involved in this debris flow. Finally, temporary river damming was key for the flow ferocity.
Vijaya Kumar Thota, Thorsten Seehaus, Friedrich Knuth, Amaury Dehecq, Christian Salewski, and Matthias Braun
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-490, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-490, 2025
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We studied past glacier changes in a rapidly warming Antarctic region with little historical data. Using approximately 2000 aerial photographs from the year 1989 over the western Antarctic Peninsula and nearby islands, we created detailed elevation models and orthoimages that have high accuracy compared to recent satellite data. This open dataset aids tracking historical ice loss and its role in sea level rise.
Theresa Dobler, Wilfried Hagg, Martin Rückamp, Thorsten Seehaus, and Christoph Mayer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2513, 2025
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We studied how a glacier in the Austrian Alps moves more slowly over time due to climate change. By combining long-term field data with recent aerial images, we show how thinning reduce glacier flow. Standard satellite methods failed to detect this slow movement, so we used manual tracking to create a reliable map. Our findings help understand changes in glacier behavior in a warming climate.
Hanwu Zheng, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Christian Birkel, Songjun Wu, Tobias Sauter, and Chris Soulsby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2166, 2025
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Ecohydrological processes in heavily managed catchments are often incorrectly represented in models. We applied a tracer-aided model STARR in an ET-dominated region (the Middle Spree, NE Germany) with major management impacts. Water isotopes were useful in identifying runoff contributions and partitioning ET even at sparse resolution. Trade-offs between discharge- and isotope-based calibrations could be partially mitigated by integrating more process-based conceptualizations into the model.
Kaian Shahateet, Johannes J. Fürst, Francisco Navarro, Thorsten Seehaus, Daniel Farinotti, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 1577–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, 2025
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In the present work, we provide a new ice thickness reconstruction of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S using inversion modeling. This model consists of two steps: the first uses basic assumptions of the rheology of the glacier, and the second uses mass conservation to improve the reconstruction where the assumptions made previously are expected to fail. Validation with independent data showed that our reconstruction improved compared to other reconstructions that are available.
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, 2025
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As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
Akash M. Patil, Christoph Mayer, Thorsten Seehaus, and Alexander R. Groos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-615, 2025
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We studied how snow and ice layers form and change in the Aletsch Glacier using radar and simple models. Our research mapped these layers' density and tracked their history over 12 years. This helps improve the glacier mass balance estimates. Using non-invasive radar techniques and models, we offer a new way to understand glaciers' evolution under regional climate conditions.
Marcel Dreier, Moritz Koch, Nora Gourmelon, Norbert Blindow, Daniel Steinhage, Fei Wu, Thorsten Seehaus, Matthias Braun, Andreas Maier, and Vincent Christlein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3597, 2025
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In this paper, we present a ready-to-use benchmark dataset to train machine-learning approaches for detecting ice thickness from radar data. It includes radargrams of glaciers and ice sheets alongside annotations for their air-ice and ice-bedrock boundary. Furthermore, we introduce a baseline model and evaluate the influence of several geographical and glaciological factors on the performance of our model.
Felix Pfluger, Samuel Weber, Joseph Steinhauser, Christian Zangerl, Christine Fey, Johannes Fürst, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 41–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-41-2025, 2025
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Our study explores permafrost–glacier interactions with a focus on their implications for preparing or triggering high-volume rock slope failures. Using the Bliggspitze rock slide as a case study, we demonstrate a new type of rock slope failure mechanism triggered by the uplift of the cold–warm dividing line in polythermal alpine glaciers, a widespread and currently under-explored phenomenon in alpine environments worldwide.
Katrina Lutz, Lily Bever, Christian Sommer, Thorsten Seehaus, Angelika Humbert, Mirko Scheinert, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 18, 5431–5449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5431-2024, 2024
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The estimation of the amount of water found within supraglacial lakes is important for understanding how much water is lost from glaciers each year. Here, we develop two new methods for estimating supraglacial lake volume that can be easily applied on a large scale. Furthermore, we compare these methods to two previously developed methods in order to determine when it is best to use each method. Finally, three of these methods are applied to peak melt dates over an area in Northeast Greenland.
Livia Piermattei, Michael Zemp, Christian Sommer, Fanny Brun, Matthias H. Braun, Liss M. Andreassen, Joaquín M. C. Belart, Etienne Berthier, Atanu Bhattacharya, Laura Boehm Vock, Tobias Bolch, Amaury Dehecq, Inés Dussaillant, Daniel Falaschi, Caitlyn Florentine, Dana Floricioiu, Christian Ginzler, Gregoire Guillet, Romain Hugonnet, Matthias Huss, Andreas Kääb, Owen King, Christoph Klug, Friedrich Knuth, Lukas Krieger, Jeff La Frenierre, Robert McNabb, Christopher McNeil, Rainer Prinz, Louis Sass, Thorsten Seehaus, David Shean, Désirée Treichler, Anja Wendt, and Ruitang Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 3195–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3195-2024, 2024
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Satellites have made it possible to observe glacier elevation changes from all around the world. In the present study, we compared the results produced from two different types of satellite data between different research groups and against validation measurements from aeroplanes. We found a large spread between individual results but showed that the group ensemble can be used to reliably estimate glacier elevation changes and related errors from satellite data.
Bastian Morales, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Mario Lillo, Iñigo Irarrazaval, David Farias, Elizabet Lizama, Diego Rivera, and Alfonso Fernández
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, 2024
Preprint archived
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Through a physical model, we explored how lacier geometry and topography configuration constrains glacier thinning in the Patagonian Icefields, the world's main glacial freshwater reservoir after Antarctica and Greenland. Our results indicate that about 53 % of the Patagonian Icefield ice flow is susceptible to thinning. Our findings allow for identifying priority glaciers for future research considering climate change projections.
Annelies Voordendag, Brigitta Goger, Rainer Prinz, Tobias Sauter, Thomas Mölg, Manuel Saigger, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 18, 849–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-849-2024, 2024
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Wind-driven snow redistribution affects glacier mass balance. A case study of Hintereisferner glacier in Austria used high-resolution observations and simulations to model snow redistribution. Simulations matched observations, showing the potential of the model for studying snow redistribution on other mountain glaciers.
Oskar Herrmann, Nora Gourmelon, Thorsten Seehaus, Andreas Maier, Johannes J. Fürst, Matthias H. Braun, and Vincent Christlein
The Cryosphere, 17, 4957–4977, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4957-2023, 2023
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Delineating calving fronts of marine-terminating glaciers in satellite images is a labour-intensive task. We propose a method based on deep learning that automates this task. We choose a deep learning framework that adapts to any given dataset without needing deep learning expertise. The method is evaluated on a benchmark dataset for calving-front detection and glacier zone segmentation. The framework can beat the benchmark baseline without major modifications.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
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Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Alexandra M. Zuhr, Erik Loebel, Marek Muchow, Donovan Dennis, Luisa von Albedyll, Frigga Kruse, Heidemarie Kassens, Johanna Grabow, Dieter Piepenburg, Sören Brandt, Rainer Lehmann, Marlene Jessen, Friederike Krüger, Monika Kallfelz, Andreas Preußer, Matthias Braun, Thorsten Seehaus, Frank Lisker, Daniela Röhnert, and Mirko Scheinert
Polarforschung, 91, 73–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-91-73-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-91-73-2023, 2023
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Polar research is an interdisciplinary and multi-faceted field of research. Its diversity ranges from history to geology and geophysics to social sciences and education. This article provides insights into the different areas of German polar research. This was made possible by a seminar series, POLARSTUNDE, established in the summer of 2020 and organized by the German Society of Polar Research and the German National Committee of the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS Germany).
Christian Sommer, Johannes J. Fürst, Matthias Huss, and Matthias H. Braun
The Cryosphere, 17, 2285–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2285-2023, 2023
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Knowledge on the volume of glaciers is important to project future runoff. Here, we present a novel approach to reconstruct the regional ice thickness distribution from easily available remote-sensing data. We show that past ice thickness, derived from spaceborne glacier area and elevation datasets, can constrain the estimated ice thickness. Based on the unique glaciological database of the European Alps, the approach will be most beneficial in regions without direct thickness measurements.
Nora Gourmelon, Thorsten Seehaus, Matthias Braun, Andreas Maier, and Vincent Christlein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4287–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4287-2022, 2022
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Ice loss of glaciers shows in retreating calving fronts (i.e., the position where icebergs break off the glacier and drift into the ocean). This paper presents a benchmark dataset for calving front delineation in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The dataset can be used to train and test deep learning techniques, which automate the monitoring of the calving front. Provided example models achieve front delineations with an average distance of 887 m to the correct calving front.
Mohamed H. Salim, Sebastian Schubert, Jaroslav Resler, Pavel Krč, Björn Maronga, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Matthias Sühring, and Christoph Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 145–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-145-2022, 2022
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Radiative transfer processes are the main energy transport mechanism in urban areas which influence the surface energy budget and drive local convection. We show here the importance of each process to help modellers decide on how much detail they should include in their models to parameterize radiative transfer in urban areas. We showed how the flow field may change in response to these processes and the essential processes needed to assure acceptable quality of the numerical simulations.
Christian Sommer, Thorsten Seehaus, Andrey Glazovsky, and Matthias H. Braun
The Cryosphere, 16, 35–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-35-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-35-2022, 2022
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Arctic glaciers have been subject to extensive warming due to global climate change, yet their contribution to sea level rise has been relatively small in the past. In this study we provide mass changes of most glaciers of the Russian High Arctic (Franz Josef Land, Severnaya Zemlya, Novaya Zemlya). We use TanDEM-X satellite measurements to derive glacier surface elevation changes. Our results show an increase in glacier mass loss and a sea level rise contribution of 0.06 mm/a (2010–2017).
Peter Friedl, Thorsten Seehaus, and Matthias Braun
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4653–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4653-2021, 2021
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Consistent and continuous data on glacier surface velocity are important inputs to time series analyses, numerical ice dynamic modeling and glacier mass flux computations. We present a new data set of glacier surface velocities derived from Sentinel-1 radar satellite data that covers 12 major glaciated regions outside the polar ice sheets. The data comprise continuously updated scene-pair velocity fields, as well as monthly and annually averaged velocity mosaics at 200 m spatial resolution.
Guisella Gacitúa, Christoph Schneider, Jorge Arigony, Inti González, Ricardo Jaña, and Gino Casassa
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 231–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-231-2021, 2021
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We performed the first successful ice thickness measurements using terrestrial ground-penetrating radar in the ablation area of Schiaparelli Glacier (Cordillera Darwin, Tierra del Fuego, Chile). Data are fundamental to understand glaciers dynamics, constrain ice dynamical modelling, and predict glacier evolution. Results show a valley-shaped bedrock below current sea level; thus further retreat of Schiaparelli Glacier will probably lead to an enlarged and strongly over-deepened proglacial lake.
Ethan Welty, Michael Zemp, Francisco Navarro, Matthias Huss, Johannes J. Fürst, Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, Johannes Landmann, Horst Machguth, Kathrin Naegeli, Liss M. Andreassen, Daniel Farinotti, Huilin Li, and GlaThiDa Contributors
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3039–3055, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3039-2020, 2020
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Knowing the thickness of glacier ice is critical for predicting the rate of glacier loss and the myriad downstream impacts. To facilitate forecasts of future change, we have added 3 million measurements to our worldwide database of glacier thickness: 14 % of global glacier area is now within 1 km of a thickness measurement (up from 6 %). To make it easier to update and monitor the quality of our database, we have used automated tools to check and track changes to the data over time.
Tobias Sauter, Anselm Arndt, and Christoph Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5645–5662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5645-2020, 2020
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Glacial changes play a key role from a socioeconomic, political, and scientific point of view. Here, we present the open-source coupled snowpack and ice surface energy and mass balance model, which provides a lean, flexible, and user-friendly framework for modeling distributed snow and glacier mass changes. The model provides a suitable platform for sensitivity, detection, and attribution analyses for glacier changes and a tool for quantifying inherent uncertainties.
Catrin Stadelmann, Johannes Jakob Fürst, Thomas Mölg, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 14, 3399–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3399-2020, 2020
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The glaciers on Kilimanjaro are unique indicators for climatic changes in the tropical midtroposphere of Africa. A history of severe glacier area loss raises concerns about an imminent future disappearance. Yet the remaining ice volume is not well known. Here, we reconstruct ice thickness maps for the two largest remaining ice bodies to assess the current glacier state. We believe that our approach could provide a means for a glacier-specific calibration of reconstructions on different scales.
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Short summary
Calibration of surface mass balance (SMB) models on regional scales is challenging. We investigate different calibration strategies with the goal of achieving realistic simulations of the SMB in the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego. Our results show that the use of regional observations from satellite data can improve the model performance. Furthermore, we compare four melt models of different complexity to understand the benefit of increasing the processes considered in the model.
Calibration of surface mass balance (SMB) models on regional scales is challenging. We...
