Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2022
| 20 Jul 2022
Predictability of Arctic sea ice drift in coupled climate models
Simon Felix Reifenberg
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
now at: MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Science & Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Helge Friedrich Goessling
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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Short summary
Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.
Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift...
