Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
Research article
20 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2022

Predictability of Arctic sea ice drift in coupled climate models

Simon Felix Reifenberg and Helge Friedrich Goessling

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Cited articles

Andersson, T. R., Hosking, J. S., Pérez-Ortiz, M., Paige, B., Elliott, A., Russell, C., Law, S., Jones, D. C., Wilkinson, J., Phillips, T., Byrne, J., Tietsche, S., Sarojini, B. B., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Aksenov, Y., Downie, R., and Shuckburgh, E.: Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning, Nat. Commun., 12, 5124,, 2021. a
Barber, D. G., Babb, D. G., Ehn, J. K., Chan, W., Matthes, L., Dalman, L. A., Campbell, Y., Harasyn, M. L., Firoozy, N., Theriault, N., Lukovich, J. V., Zagon, T., Papakyriakou, T., Capelle, D. W., Forest, A., and Gariepy, A.: Increasing Mobility of High Arctic Sea Ice Increases Marine Hazards Off the East Coast of Newfoundland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2370–2379,, 2018. a
Collins, M.: Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem, Clim. Dynam., 19, 671–692,, 2002. a, b, c
Cruz-García, R., Guemas, V., Chevallier, M., and Massonnet, F.: Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning, Clim. Dynam., 53, 427–440,, 2019. a
Dawson, J., Pizzolato, L., Howell, S. E., Copland, L., and Johnston, M. E.: Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Ship Traffic in the Canadian Arctic from 1990 to 2015, Arctic, 71, 15–26, 2018. a
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Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.