The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
Research article
 | 
20 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 20 Jul 2022

Predictability of Arctic sea ice drift in coupled climate models

Simon Felix Reifenberg and Helge Friedrich Goessling

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Short summary
Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.
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