Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, 2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, 2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
28 Mar 2022
Research article  | Highlight paper | 28 Mar 2022

Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change

Stiig Wilkenskjeld et al.

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Cited articles

Angelopoulos, M., Westermann, S., Overduin, P., Faguet, A., Olenchenko, V., Grosse, G., and Grigoriev, M. N.: Heat and Salt Flow in Subsea Permafrost Modeled with CryoGRID2, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 920–937,, 2019. a, b, c, d
Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. B., 24, 43–69,, 1979. a
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Munhoven, G.: Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes, Clim. Past, 8, 251–264,, 2012. a
Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V. K., Boisier, J. P., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jones, C. D., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., and Weiss, M.: Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century, J. Climate, 26, 6859–6881,, 2013. a
Davies, J. H.: Global map of solid Earth surface heat flow, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 14, 4608–4622,, 2013. a
Short summary
Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.