Articles | Volume 15, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 09 Jul 2021
| 09 Jul 2021
The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood at Jinwuco, Tibet: causes, impacts, and implications for hazard and risk assessment
Guoxiong Zheng
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute
of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 830011 Ürümqi, China
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva,
Switzerland
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China
Martin Mergili
Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, 8010
Graz, Austria
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life
Sciences (BOKU), 1190 Vienna, Austria
Adam Emmer
Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, 8010
Graz, Austria
Simon Allen
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva,
Switzerland
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich,
Switzerland
Anming Bao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute
of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 830011 Ürümqi, China
China-Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences, CAS-HEC, 45320
Islamabad, Pakistan
School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, 276800
Rizhao, China
Markus Stoffel
Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva,
Switzerland
Dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205
Geneva, Switzerland
Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences,
University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Related authors
Wenfeng Chen, Tandong Yao, Guoqing Zhang, Fei Li, Guoxiong Zheng, Yushan Zhou, and Fenglin Xu
The Cryosphere, 16, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A digital elevation model (DEM) is a prerequisite for estimating regional glacier thickness. Our study first compared six widely used global DEMs over the glacierized Tibetan Plateau by using ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data. Our results show that NASADEM had the best accuracy. We conclude that NASADEM would be the best choice for ice-thickness estimation over the Tibetan Plateau through an intercomparison of four ice-thickness inversion models.
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analyze its preconditions, consequences, and the role of changing climate. Our study contibutes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
Jérôme Lopez-Saez, Christophe Corona, Lenka Slamova, Matthias Huss, Valérie Daux, Kurt Nicolussi, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 20, 1251–1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the European Alps have been retreating since the 1850s. Monitoring glacier mass balance is vital for understanding global changes, but only a few glaciers have long-term data. This study aims to reconstruct the mass balance of the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps using stable isotopes and tree ring proxies. Results indicate increased glacier mass until the 19th century, followed by a sharp decline after the Little Ice Age with accelerated losses due to anthropogenic warming.
Nicolas Steeb, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Christian Rickli, Andrea Mini, Markus Stoffel, and Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 487–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Various models have been used in science and practice to estimate how much large wood (LW) can be supplied to rivers. This contribution reviews the existing models proposed in the last 35 years and compares two of the most recent spatially explicit models by applying them to 40 catchments in Switzerland. Differences in modelling results are discussed, and results are compared to available observations coming from a unique database.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Heli Huhtamaa, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 2077–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tree-ring data and written sources from northern Fennoscandia reveal that large 17th century eruptions had considerable climatic, agricultural, and socioeconomic impacts far away from the eruption locations. Yet, micro-regional investigation shows that the human consequences were commonly indirect, as various factors, like agro-ecosystems, resource availability, institutions, and personal networks, dictated how the volcanic cold pulses and related crop failures materialized on a societal level.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past, 18, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political instability, and famine in Europe, China, and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate but also study their socio-political context. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest, and famine cannot only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Wenfeng Chen, Tandong Yao, Guoqing Zhang, Fei Li, Guoxiong Zheng, Yushan Zhou, and Fenglin Xu
The Cryosphere, 16, 197–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A digital elevation model (DEM) is a prerequisite for estimating regional glacier thickness. Our study first compared six widely used global DEMs over the glacierized Tibetan Plateau by using ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data. Our results show that NASADEM had the best accuracy. We conclude that NASADEM would be the best choice for ice-thickness estimation over the Tibetan Plateau through an intercomparison of four ice-thickness inversion models.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Peter M. Abbott, Gill Plunkett, Christophe Corona, Nathan J. Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, John R. Pilcher, Markus Stoffel, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 17, 565–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-565-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and greater understanding of their past influence will increase the accuracy of future projections. We use volcanic ash from a 1477 CE Icelandic eruption in a Greenlandic ice core as a temporal fix point to constrain the timing of two eruptions in the 1450s CE and their climatic impact. Despite being the most explosive Icelandic eruption in the last 1200 years, the 1477 CE event had a limited impact on Northern Hemisphere climate.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years.
This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia.
We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming.
Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Michael Fehlmann, Mario Rohrer, Annakaisa von Lerber, and Markus Stoffel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4683–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4683-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Thies disdrometer is used to monitor precipitation intensity and its phase and thus may provide valuable information for the management of meteorological and hydrological risks. In this study, we characterize biases of this instrument using common reference instruments at a pre-alpine study site in Switzerland. We find a systematic underestimation of liquid precipitation amounts and suggest possible reasons for and corrections to this bias and relate these findings to other study sites.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-685-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Dieter Rickenmann, Martin Böckli, Salome Schläfli, Nicolas Steeb, Markus Stoffel, and Christian Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, 2018
Ekrem Canli, Martin Mergili, Benni Thiebes, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Regional-scale landslide forecasting traditionally strongly relies on empirical approaches and landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. Today, probabilistic methods utilizing ensemble predictions are frequently used for flood forecasting. In our study, we specify how such an approach could also be applied for landslide forecasts and for operational landslide forecasting and early warning systems. To this end, we implemented a physically based landslide model in a probabilistic framework.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Adam Emmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 813–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). It shows how research on GLOFs has become topical over the past few decades (analysed period: 1979–2016). Issues such as (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration are addressed.
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Christine Moos, Luuk Dorren, and Markus Stoffel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 291–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. This was done based on 3-D rockfall simulations for different forest and non-forest scenarios on a virtual slope. The rockfall frequency and intensity below forested slopes is significantly reduced. Statistical models provide information on how specific forest and terrain parameters influence this reduction and they allow prediction and quantification of the forest effect.
Martin Mergili, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Julia Krenn, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
r.avaflow represents a GIS-based, multi-functional open-source tool for the simulation of debris flows, rock avalanches, snow avalanches, or two-phase (solid and fluid) process chains. It further facilitates parameter studies and validation of the simulation results against observed patterns. r.avaflow shall inform strategies to reduce the risks related to the interaction of mass flow processes with society.
M. Mergili, J. Krenn, and H.-J. Chu
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4027–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
r.randomwalk is a flexible and multi-functional open-source GIS tool for simulating the propagation of mass movements. Mass points are routed from given release pixels through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. In contrast to existing tools, r.randomwalk includes functionalities to account for parameter uncertainties, and it offers built-in functions for validation and visualization. We show the key functionalities of r.randomwalk for three test areas.
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
M. Jochner, J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, M. Stoffel, and C. Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The export of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) from mountain catchments seems to be strongly linked to rising discharge, but the mechanism leading to this is unclear. We show that log jams in a steep headwater stream are an effective barrier for CPOM export. Exceptional discharge events play a dual role: First, they destroy existing jams, releasing stored material. Second, they intensify channel--hillslope coupling, thereby recruiting logs to the channel, around which new jams can form.
M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2969–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2969-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The article deals with strategies to (i) reduce computation time and to (ii) appropriately account for uncertain input parameters when applying an open source GIS sliding surface model to estimate landslide susceptibility for a 90km² study area in central Italy. For (i), the area is split into a large number of tiles, enabling the exploitation of multi-processor computing environments. For (ii), the model is run with various parameter combinations to compute the slope failure probability.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, 2014
F. E. Gruber and M. Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2779–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2779-2013, 2013
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1551–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Other | Subject: Natural Hazards
Brief communication: An ice-debris avalanche in the Nupchu Valley, Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, eastern Nepal
Convolutional neural network and long short-term memory models for ice-jam predictions
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Fatemehalsadat Madaeni, Karem Chokmani, Rachid Lhissou, Saeid Homayouni, Yves Gauthier, and Simon Tolszczuk-Leclerc
The Cryosphere, 16, 1447–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three deep learning models (CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks) to predict breakup ice-jam events to be used as an early warning system of possible flooding in rivers. In the models, we used hydro-meteorological data associated with breakup ice jams. The models show excellent performance, and the main finding is that the CN-LSTM model is superior to the CNN-only and LSTM-only networks in both training and generalization accuracy.
Cited articles
Allen, S., Rastner, P., Arora, M., Huggel, C., and Stoffel, M.: Lake
outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013:
hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition, Landslides,
13, 1479–1491, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0584-3, 2016.
Allen, S., Zhang, G., Wang, W., Yao, T., and Bolch, T.: Potentially
dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a
large-scale automated assessment approach, Sci. Bull., 64, 435–445,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011, 2019.
Ballantyne, C. K.: Paraglacial geomorphology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21,
1935–2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00005-7, 2002.
Beven, K.: Equifinality and Uncertainty in Geomorphological Modelling, in:
The Scientific Nature of Geomorphology: Proceedings of the 27th Binghamton
Symposium in Geomorphology, 27–29 September 1996, John Wiley & Sons,
289–313, 1996.
Bindoff, N., Stott, P., AchutaRao, M., Allen, M., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D.,
Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, II., Overland, J.,
Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang, X.: Detection and attribution of
climate change: from global to regional, in: Climate Change 2013 – The
Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin,
D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia,
Y., Bex, V., and Midgle, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
867–952, 2013.
Blair Jr., R. W.: Moraine and valley wall collapse due to rapid deglaciation
in Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand, Mt. Res. Dev., 14, 347–358, 1994.
Bolch, T., Shea, J. M., Liu, S., Azam, F. M., Gao, Y., Gruber, S.,
Immerzeel, W. W., Kulkarni, A., Li, H., Tahir, A. A., Zhang, G., and Zhang,
Y.: Status and change of the cryosphere in the extended Hindu Kush Himalaya
region, in: The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment: mountains, climate change,
sustainability and people, edited by: Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A., and
Shrestha, A. B., Springer International Publishing, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7, 2019.
Bureau of Reclamation: Guidelines for defining inundated areas downstream
from Bureau of Reclamation dams, Reclamation Planning Instruction No. 82-11,
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, 25, 1982.
Bureau of Reclamation: Downstream hazard classification guidelines, ACER
Tech. Memoran-dum No. 11, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Reclamation, Denver, 57, 1988.
Byers, A. C., Rounce, D. R., Shugar, D. H., Lala, J. M., Byers, E. A., and
Regmi, D.: A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun
Valley, Nepal, Landslides, 16, 533–549, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-1079-9,
2018.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A global assessment of the societal
impacts of glacier outburst floods, Global Planet. Change, 144, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016.
Chiarle, M., Iannotti, S., Mortara, G., and Deline, P.: Recent debris flow
occurrences associated with glaciers in the Alps, Global Planet. Change, 56,
123–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.003, 2007.
Clague, J. J. and Evans, S. G.: A review of catastrophic drainage of
moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 1763–1783,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(00)00090-1, 2000.
Cook, K. L., Andermann, C., Gimbert, F., Adhikari, B. R., and Hovius, N.:
Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya,
Science, 362, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4981, 2018.
Cook, S. J. and Quincey, D. J.: Estimating the volume of Alpine glacial lakes, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-559-2015, 2015.
Costa, J. E.: Floods from dam failures, U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File
Rep. No. 85-560, Denver, 54, 1985.
Dubey, S. and Goyal, M. K.: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard,
downstream impact, and risk over the Indian Himalayas, Water Resour. Res.,
56, e2019WR026533, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr026533, 2020.
Emmer, A. and Cochachin, A.: The causes and mechanisms of moraine-dammed
lake failures in the Cordillera Blanca, North American Cordillera, and
Himalayas, AUC Geographica, 48, 5–15, 2013.
Emmer, A. and Vilímek, V.: New method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, 2014.
Emmer, A., Harrison, S., Mergili, M., Allen, S., Frey, H., and Huggel, C.:
70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the
Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future, Geomorphology,
365, 107178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178, 2020a.
Emmer, A., Klimeš, J., Hölbling, D., Abad Crespo, L. C., Draebing,
D., Skalák, P., Štěpánek, P., and Zahradníček, P.:
Distinct types of landslides in moraines associated with the post-LIA
glacier thinning: observations from the Kinzl Glacier, Huascarán, Peru,
Sci. Total Environ., 739, 139997, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139997,
2020b.
Evans, S. G.: The maximum discharge of outburst floods caused by the
breaching of man-made and natural dams, Can. Geotech. J., 23, 385–387,
https://doi.org/10.1139/t86-053, 1986.
Evans, S. G. and Clague, J. J.: Recent climatic change and catastrophic
geomorphic processes in mountain environments, in: Geomorphology and Natural
Hazards, edited by: Morisawa, M., Elsevier, Amsterdam,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-82012-9.50012-8, 1994.
Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A., Huggel, C., and Paul, F.: A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 339–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010, 2010.
Froehlich, D. C.: Peak outflow from breached embankment dam, J. Water
Resour. Plan. Manage. Div., 121, 90–97,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1995)121:1(90), 1995.
Fujita, K., Sakai, A., Takenaka, S., Nuimura, T., Surazakov, A. B., Sawagaki, T., and Yamanokuchi, T.: Potential flood volume of Himalayan glacial lakes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013, 2013.
GAPHAZ: Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions –
Technical Guidance Document, Zurich/Lima, https://doi.org/10.13140/rg.2.2.26332.90245,
2017.
Gardelle, J., Arnaud, Y., and Berthier, E.: Contrasted evolution of glacial
lakes along the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range between 1990 and 2009,
Global Planet. Change, 75, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.003, 2011.
Gurung, D. R., Khanal, N. R., Bajracharya, S. R., Tsering, K., Joshi, S.,
Tshering, P., Chhetri, L. K., Lotay, Y., and Penjor, T.: Lemthang Tsho
glacial Lake outburst flood (GLOF) in Bhutan: cause and impact,
Geoenvironmental Disasters, 4, 17, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-017-0080-2, 2017.
Hagen, V. K.: Re-evaluation of design floods and dam safety, Proceedings of
the 14th Con-gress of Int. Commission on Large Dams, International
Commission on Large Dams, Paris, 1982.
Hanshaw, M. N. and Bookhagen, B.: Glacial areas, lake areas, and snow lines from 1975 to 2012: status of the Cordillera Vilcanota, including the Quelccaya Ice Cap, northern central Andes, Peru, The Cryosphere, 8, 359–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-359-2014, 2014.
Haritashya, U., Kargel, J., Shugar, D., Leonard, G., Strattman, K., Watson,
C., Shean, D., Harrison, S., Mandli, K., and Regmi, D.: Evolution and
controls of large glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya, Remote Sens., 10,
798, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10050798, 2018.
Harrison, S., Kargel, J. S., Huggel, C., Reynolds, J., Shugar, D. H., Betts, R. A., Emmer, A., Glasser, N., Haritashya, U. K., Klimeš, J., Reinhardt, L., Schaub, Y., Wiltshire, A., Regmi, D., and Vilímek, V.: Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods, The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S.,
Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S.,
Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High
Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a
Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner,
H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegriìa, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A.,
Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., 2019.
Huggel, C., Kaab, A., Haeberli, W., Teysseire, P., and Paul, F.: Remote
sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case
study in the Swiss Alps, Can. Geotech. J., 39, 316–330,
https://doi.org/10.1139/T01-099, 2002.
Huggel, C., Carey, M., Emmer, A., Frey, H., Walker-Crawford, N., and Wallimann-Helmer, I.: Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020.
Iverson, R. M. and Chaojun, O.: Entrainment of bed material by Earth-surface
mass flows: review and reformulation of depth-integrated theory, Rev.
Geophys., 53, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000447, 2015.
Ives, J. D., Shrestha, R. B., and Mool, P. K.: Formation of Glacial Lakes in
the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF Risk Assessment, International Centre for
Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Katmandu, 2010.
Kala, C. P.: Deluge, disaster and development in Uttarakhand Himalayan
region of India: Challenges and lessons for disaster management, Int. J.
Disaster Risk Reduct., 8, 143–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.03.002, 2014.
Kapitsa, V., Shahgedanova, M., Machguth, H., Severskiy, I., and Medeu, A.: Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1837–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1837-2017, 2017.
Khanal, N. R., Mool, P. K., Shrestha, A. B., Rasul, G., Ghimire, P. K.,
Shrestha, R. B., and Joshi, S. P.: A comprehensive approach and methods for
glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment, with examples from Nepal and
the transboundary area, Int. J. Water Resour. Dev., 31, 219–237,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.994116, 2015.
Kirkpatrick, G. W.: Evaluation guidelines for spillway adequacy. The
evaluation of dam safety, Engineering Foundation Conf., ASCE, New York,
395–414, 1977.
Kitoh, A.: The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A
Review, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 95, 7–33, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2017-002, 2017.
Klimeš, J., Novotný, J., Novotná, I., de Urries, B. J.,
Vilímek, V., Emmer, A., Strozzi, T., Kusák, M., Rapre, A. C.,
Hartvich, F., and Frey, H.: Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial
lake outburst floods: example from Palcacocha Lake (Cordillera Blanca,
Peru), Landslides, 13, 1461–1477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0724-4, 2016.
Knight, J. and Harrison, S.: Mountain glacial and paraglacial environments
under global climate change: Lessons from the past, future directions and
policy implications, Geogr. Ann. Ser. A, 96, 245–264,
https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12051, 2014.
Liu, X.: Thoughts on the moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst flood in
Zhongyu township, Tibet, China Agriculture Information, p. 178,
2014 (in Chinese).
Lliboutry, L.: Glaciological problems set by the control of dangerous lakes
in Cordillera Blanca, Peru. II. Movement of a covered glacier embedded
within a rock glacier, J. Glaciol., 18, 255–274,
https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000021341, 1977.
Loriaux, T. and Casassa, G.: Evolution of glacial lakes from the Northern
Patagonia Icefield and terrestrial water storage in a sea-level rise
context, Global Planet. Change, 102, 33–40,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.12.012, 2013.
MacDonald, T. C. and Langridge-Monopolis, J.: Breaching Charateristics
of Dam Failures, J. Hydraul. Eng., 110, 567–586,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1984)110:5(567), 1984.
Majeed, U., Rashid, I., Sattar, A., Allen, S., Stoffel, M., Nüsser, M.,
and Schmidt, S.: Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst
flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India, Sci. Total Environ.,
756, 144008, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144008, 2020.
Mathison, C., Wiltshire, A., Dimri, A. P., Falloon, P., Jacob, D., Kumar,
P., Moors, E., Ridley, J., Siderius, C., Stoffel, M., and Yasunari, T.:
Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies, Sci.
Total Environ., 468–469, S4–S17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.066,
2013.
McColl, S. T.: Paraglacial rock-slope stability, Geomorphology, 153-154,
1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.02.015, 2012.
Mergili, M.: r.avaflow simulation package for the 2020 Jinwuco GLOF (Version 1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4751110, 2021.
Mergili, M., Fischer, J.-T., Krenn, J., and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow v1, an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and interaction of two-phase mass flows, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017.
Mergili, M. and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow – The open source mass flow
simulation model, available at: https://www.avaflow.org/, last access: 30 October 2020.
Mergili, M., Pudasaini, S. P., Emmer, A., Fischer, J.-T., Cochachin, A., and Frey, H.: Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020.
Muñoz, R., Huggel, C., Frey, H., Cochachin, A., and Haeberli, W.:
Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric
dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 45,
1510–1527, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4826, 2020.
Narama, C., Duishonakunov, M., Kääb, A., Daiyrov, M., and Abdrakhmatov, K.: The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 647–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-647-2010, 2010.
Nie, Y., Liu, Q., Wang, J., Zhang, Y., Sheng, Y., and Liu, S.: An inventory
of historical glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas based on remote
sensing observations and geomorphological analysis, Geomorphology, 308,
91–106, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.02.002, 2018.
Nie, Y., Liu, W., Liu, Q., Hu, X., and Westoby, M. J.: Reconstructing the
Chongbaxia Tsho glacial lake outburst flood in the Eastern Himalaya:
Evolution, process and impacts, Geomorphology, 370, 107393,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107393, 2020.
O'Connor, J. E., Hardison, J. H., and Costa, J. E.: Debris Flows from Failures
of Neoglacial – Age Moraine Dams in the Three Sisters and Mount Jefferson
Wilderness Areas, Oregon, Professional Pa-per1606, U.S. Geological Survey,
Reston, 93, 2001.
Panday, P. K., Thibeault, J., and Frey, K. E.: Changing temperature and
precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of
CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Int. J. Climatol., 35,
3058–3077, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4192, 2015.
Popov, N.: Assessment of glacial debris flow hazard in the north Tien-Shan,
in: Proceedings of the Soviet-China-Japan Symposium and field workshop on
natural disasters, 384–391, 2–17 September 1991.
Price, J. T., Lowe, G. W., and Garrison, J. M.: Unsteady flow modeling of
dam-break waves, Proceedings: U.S. Water Resources Council, Hydrology
Committee, Springfield, Virginia, 275–437, 1977.
Pudasaini, S. P. and Mergili, M.: A Multi-Phase Mass Flow Model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth, 124, 2920–2942, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jf005204, 2019.
RGI Consortium: Randolph Glacier Inventory – A dataset of global glacier
outlines: version 6.0: Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from
Space (GLIMS), Colorado, Digital Media, https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60, 2017.
Richardson, S. D. and Reynolds, J. M.: An overview of glacial hazards in the
Himalayas, Quatern. Int., 65-6, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(99)00035-X,
2000.
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., and Marzeion, B.: On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change, The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021.
Rounce, D. R., Watson, C. S., and McKinney, D. C.: Identification of hazard
and risk for glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya using satellite imagery
from 2000–2015, Remote Sens., 9, 654, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9070654, 2017.
Sanjay, J., Krishnan, R., Shrestha, A. B., Rajbhandari, R., and Ren, G.-Y.:
Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region
using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models, Adv. Clim. Change
Res., 8, 185–198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.003, 2017.
Schaub, Y., Huggel, C., and Cochachin, A.: Ice-avalanche scenario
elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of
rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513,
Peru, Landslides, 13, 1445–1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0658-2, 2016.
Schneider, D., Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Guillén, S., and García, J.: Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru, Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014.
Schwanghart, W., Worni, R., Huggel, C., Stoffel, M., and Korup, O.:
Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy–water nexus: estimating regional
exposure to glacial lake outburst floods, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 074005,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074005, 2016.
Shugar, D., Burr, A., Haritashya, U. K., Kargel, J. S., Watson, C. S., Kennedy,
M. C., Bevington, A. R., Betts, R. A., Harrison, S., and Strattman, K.: Rapid
worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990, Nat. Clim. Change, 10,
939–945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4, 2020.
Singh, K. P. and Snorrason, A.: Sensitivity of outflow peaks and flood
stages to the selection of dam breach parameters and simulation models, J.
Hydrol., 68, 295–310, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(84)90217-8, 1984.
Soil Conservation Service: Simplified dam-breach routing procedure, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., Tech.
Release No. 66, 39, 1981.
Stuart-Smith, R. F., Roe, G. H., Li, S., and Allen, M. R.: Increased
outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier
retreat, Nat. Geosci., 14, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4, 2021.
Sun, M., Liu, S., Yao, X., and Li, L.: The cause and potential hazard of
glacial lake outburst flood occurred on July 5, 2013 in Jiali County, Tibet, Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 36, 158–165, 2014 (in Chinese).
Sun, W. H., Chen, B., and Messinger, D. W.: Nearest-neighbor diffusion-based
pan-sharpening algorithm for spectral images, Opt. Eng., 53, 013107,
https://doi.org/10.1117/1.Oe.53.1.013107, 2014.
Veh, G., Korup, O., von Specht, S., Roessner, S., and Walz, A.: Unchanged
frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya,
Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 379–383, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5, 2019.
Veh, G., Korup, O., and Walz, A.: Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake
outburst floods, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 907–912,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1914898117, 2020.
Von Thun, J. L. and Gillette, D. R.: Guidance on breach parameters. Internal
Memorandum, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, p. 17,
1990.
Wahl, T. L.: Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters,
J. Hydraul. Eng., 130, 389–397,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2004)130:5(389), 2004.
Wang, S., Qin, D., and Xiao, C.: Moraine-dammed lake distribution and
outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya, J. Glaciol., 61, 115–126,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J097, 2015.
Wang, X., Liu, S., Ding, Y., Guo, W., Jiang, Z., Lin, J., and Han, Y.: An approach for estimating the breach probabilities of moraine-dammed lakes in the Chinese Himalayas using remote-sensing data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3109–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3109-2012, 2012.
Wang, X., Guo, X., Yang, C., Liu, Q., Wei, J., Zhang, Y., Liu, S., Zhang, Y., Jiang, Z., and Tang, Z.: Glacial lake inventory of high-mountain Asia in 1990 and 2018 derived from Landsat images, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2169–2182, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2169-2020, 2020.
Westoby, M. J., Glasser, N. F., Hambrey, M. J., Brasington, J., Reynolds, J.
M., and Hassan, M. A.: Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events
in the Himalaya, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 39, 1675–1692,
https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3617, 2014.
Westoby, M. J., Brasington, J., Glasser, N. F., Hambrey, M. J., Reynolds, J. M., Hassan, M. A. A. M., and Lowe, A.: Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 171–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-171-2015, 2015.
Wilson, R., Harrison, S., Reynolds, J., Hubbard, A., Glasser, N. F.,
Wündrich, O., Iribarren Anacona, P., Mao, L., and Shannon, S.: The 2015
Chileno Valley glacial lake outburst flood, Patagonia, Geomorphology, 332,
51–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.01.015, 2019.
Worni, R., Stoffel, M., Huggel, C., Volz, C., Casteller, A., and Luckman,
B.: Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake
outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina), J.
Hydrol., 444-445, 134–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.013, 2012.
Yao, X., Liu, S., Sun, M., Wei, J., and Guo, W.: Volume calculation and
analysis of the changes in moraine-dammed lakes in the north Himalaya: a
case study of Longbasaba lake, J. Glaciol., 58, 753–760, 2012.
You, Q., Min, J., and Kang, S.: Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from
observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades, Int. J. Climatol., 36,
2660–2670, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4520, 2016.
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J.,
Barandun, M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gartner-Roer, I., Thomson,
L., Paul, F., Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global glacier
mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016,
Nature, 568, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0, 2019.
Zhang, G., Yao, T., Xie, H., Wang, W., and Yang, W.: An inventory of glacial
lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global
warming, Global Planet. Change, 131, 148–157,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.05.013, 2015.
Zheng, G., Bao, A., Li, J., Zhang, G., Xie, H., Guo, H., Jiang, L., Chen,
T., Chang, C., and Chen, W.: Sustained growth of high mountain lakes in the
headwaters of the Syr Darya River, Central Asia, Global Planet. Change, 176,
84–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.03.004, 2019.
Zheng, G., Bao, A., Allen, S., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J., Yuan, Y.,
Jiapaer, G., and Stoffel, M.: Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst
floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and
geomorphological evidence, Sci. Bull., 66, 1270–1273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014, 2021.
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June...
