Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-39-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jan 2020
Research article |
| 10 Jan 2020
| 10 Jan 2020
Micromechanical modeling of snow failure
Grégoire Bobillier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Bastian Bergfeld
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Achille Capelli
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Jürg Dual
Institute for Mechanical Systems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Johan Gaume
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
SLAB Snow and Avalanche Simulation Laboratory, EPFL Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland
Alec van Herwijnen
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Jürg Schweizer
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Related authors
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, 2024
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Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Gwendolyn Dasser, Valentin T. Bickel, Marius Rüetschi, Mylène Jacquemart, Mathias Bavay, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Alec van Herwijnen, and Andrea Manconi
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Avalanche seismic detection systems are key for forecasting, but distinguishing avalanches from other seismic sources remains challenging. We propose novel autoencoder models to automatically extract features and compare them with standard seismic attributes. These features are then used to classify avalanches and noise events. The autoencoder feature classifiers have the highest sensitivity to detect avalanches, while the standard seismic classifier performs better overall.
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Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current tree line. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
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Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground-snow interface and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction homogeneity while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
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We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
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We monitor the amount of snow on the ground using passive radiofrequency identification (RFID) tags. These small and inexpensive tags are wirelessly read by a stationary reader placed above the snowpack. Variations in the radiofrequency phase delay accurately reflect variations in snow amount, known as snow water equivalent. Additionally, each tag is equipped with a sensor that monitors the snow temperature.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
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The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
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Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
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Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, 2020
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Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Louis Quéno, Charles Fierz, Alec van Herwijnen, Dylan Longridge, and Nander Wever
The Cryosphere, 14, 3449–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, 2020
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Deep ice layers may form in the snowpack due to preferential water flow with impacts on the snowpack mechanical, hydrological and thermodynamical properties. We studied their formation and evolution at a high-altitude alpine site, combining a comprehensive observation dataset at a daily frequency (with traditional snowpack observations, penetration resistance and radar measurements) and detailed snowpack modeling, including a new parameterization of ice formation in the 1-D SNOWPACK model.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
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This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1941-2020, 2020
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Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
Neige Calonne, Bettina Richter, Henning Löwe, Cecilia Cetti, Judith ter Schure, Alec Van Herwijnen, Charles Fierz, Matthias Jaggi, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 14, 1829–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1829-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1829-2020, 2020
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During winter 2015–2016, the standard program to monitor the structure and stability of the snowpack at Weissflujoch, Swiss Alps, was complemented by additional measurements to compare between various traditional and newly developed techniques. Snow micro-penetrometer measurements allowed monitoring of the evolution of the snowpack's internal structure at a daily resolution throughout the winter. We show the potential of such high-resolution data for detailed evaluations of snowpack models.
Emanuele Marchetti, Alec van Herwijnen, Marc Christen, Maria Cristina Silengo, and Giulia Barfucci
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-399-2020, 2020
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We present infrasonic and seismic array data of a powder snow avalanche, that was released on 5 February 2016, in the Dischma valley nearby Davos, Switzerland. Combining information derived from both arrays, we show how infrasound and seismic energy are radiated from different sources acting along the path. Moreover, infrasound transmits to the ground and affects the recorded seismic signal. Results highlight the benefits of combined seismo-acoustic array analyses for monitoring and research.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
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Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
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Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Matthias Heck, Alec van Herwijnen, Conny Hammer, Manuel Hobiger, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 491–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-491-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-491-2019, 2019
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We used continuous seismic data from two small aperture geophone arrays deployed in the region above Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps to develop a machine learning workflow to automatically identify signals generated by snow avalanches. Our results suggest that the method presented could be used to identify major avalanche periods and highlight the importance of array processing techniques for the automatic classification of avalanches in seismic data.
Matthias Heck, Conny Hammer, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, 2018
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In this study we use hidden Markov models, a machine learning algorithm to automatically identify avalanche events in a continuous seismic data set recorded during the winter 2010. With additional post processing steps, we detected around 70 avalanche events. Although not every detection could be confirmed as an avalanche, we clearly identified the two main avalanche periods of the winter season 2010 in our classification results.
Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, Guillaume Chambon, Nander Wever, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 11, 217–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, 2017
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Based on DEM simulations we developed a new model for the onset of crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release. The model reconciles past approaches by considering the complex interplay between slab elasticity and the mechanical behavior of the weak layer including its structural collapse. The model agrees with extensive field data and can reproduce crack propagation on low-angle terrain and the decrease in critical crack length with increasing slope angle observed in numerical experiments.
Jürg Schweizer, Benjamin Reuter, Alec van Herwijnen, Bettina Richter, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 10, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, 2016
Fabiano Monti, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 775–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, 2016
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We propose a new approach based on a simplification of the multi-layered elasticity theory in order to easily compute the additional stress due to a skier at the depth of the weak layer, taking into account the layering of the snow slab and the substratum. The method was tested on simplified snow profiles, then on manually observed snow profiles including a stability test and, finally, on simulated snow profiles, thereby showing the promise of our approach.
J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, G. Chambon, K. W. Birkeland, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1915–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, 2015
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We proposed a new approach to characterize the dynamic phase of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers as well as fracture arrest propensity by means of numerical "propagation saw test" simulations based on the discrete element method. Crack propagation speed and distance before fracture arrest were derived from the simulations for different snowpack configurations and mechanical properties. Numerical and experimental results were compared and the mechanical processes at play were discussed.
B. Reuter, J. Schweizer, and A. van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 9, 837–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, 2015
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We present a novel approach to estimate point snow instability based on snow mechanical properties from snow micro-penetrometer measurements. This is the first approach that takes into account the essential processes involved in dry-snow slab avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. Comparison with field observations confirms that the two-step calculation of a stability criterion and a critical crack length is suited to describe point snow instability.
J. Gaume, G. Chambon, N. Eckert, M. Naaim, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, 2015
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Slab tensile failure propensity is examined using a mechanical--statistical model of the slab–-weak layer (WL) system based on the finite element method. This model accounts for WL heterogeneity, stress redistribution by elasticity of the slab and the slab possible tensile failure. For realistic values of the parameters, the tensile failure propensity is mainly driven by slab properties. Hard and thick snow slabs are more prone to wide–scale crack propagation and thus lead to larger avalanches.
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
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This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
N. Helbig, A. van Herwijnen, J. Magnusson, and T. Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1339–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, 2015
J. Schweizer and B. Reuter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 109–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-109-2015, 2015
E. H. Bair, R. Simenhois, A. van Herwijnen, and K. Birkeland
The Cryosphere, 8, 1407–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, 2014
I. Reiweger and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 7, 1447–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1447-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1447-2013, 2013
C. Mitterer and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 7, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-205-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-205-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Snow | Subject: Numerical Modelling
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Snow cover prediction in the Italian central Apennines using weather forecast and land surface numerical models
A data exploration tool for averaging and accessing large data sets of snow stratigraphy profiles useful for avalanche forecasting
Land–atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX flagship pilot study Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) models – Part 1: Evaluation of the snow-albedo effect
Elements of future snowpack modeling – Part 1: A physical instability arising from the nonlinear coupling of transport and phase changes
Elements of future snowpack modeling – Part 2: A modular and extendable Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical scheme for coupled transport, phase changes and settling processes
Assessment of neutrons from secondary cosmic rays at mountain altitudes – Geant4 simulations of environmental parameters including soil moisture and snow cover
A seasonal algorithm of the snow-covered area fraction for mountainous terrain
Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models
Deep ice layer formation in an alpine snowpack: monitoring and modeling
Multi-physics ensemble snow modelling in the western Himalaya
Changing characteristics of runoff and freshwater export from watersheds draining northern Alaska
Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation
A simulation of a large-scale drifting snowstorm in the turbulent boundary layer
Spatial variability in snow precipitation and accumulation in COSMO–WRF simulations and radar estimations over complex terrain
Using machine learning for real-time estimates of snow water equivalent in the watersheds of Afghanistan
Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar
The Cryosphere, 18, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, 2024
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Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamp-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, 2023
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations by disentangling error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation forcings and unresolved subgrid variability. We evaluated simulated snow cover against snow depths from Pléiades stereo-imagery and Snow Melt-Out Dates from Sentinel 2. The simulation of snow transport enhances the snow spatial variance at high elevations while precipitation biases are the prevailing error source in other areas.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2071, 2023
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Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed a remarkable improvement of the snow distribution in mountains of the Eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-30, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
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This paper presents the development of a numerical model to study the mechanical behaviour of snow at microscale. The numerical model has shown good capabilities to reproduce experimental Cone Penetration Test measurements. It is a promising tool for future investigation to better characterise the snow material. Applications of the numerical model are various such as snowpack characterisation, high resolution snow force profile interpretation or avalanches forecasting for instance.
Edoardo Raparelli, Paolo Tuccella, Valentina Colaiuda, and Frank S. Marzano
The Cryosphere, 17, 519–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-519-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the skills of a single-layer (Noah) and a multi-layer (Alpine3D) snow model, forced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to reproduce snowpack properties observed in the Italian central Apennines. We found that Alpine3D reproduces the observed snow height and snow water equivalent better than Noah, while no particular model differences emerge on snow cover extent. Finally, we observed that snow settlement is mainly due to densification in Alpine3D and to melting in Noah.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 16, 3149–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, 2022
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We present an averaging algorithm for multidimensional snow stratigraphy profiles that elicits the predominant snow layering among large numbers of profiles and allows for compiling of informative summary statistics and distributions of snowpack layer properties. This creates new opportunities for presenting and analyzing operational snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting and may inspire new ways of processing profiles and time series in other geophysical contexts.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Konstantin Schürholt, Julia Kowalski, and Henning Löwe
The Cryosphere, 16, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-903-2022, 2022
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This companion paper deals with numerical particularities of partial differential equations underlying 1D snow models. In this first part we neglect mechanical settling and demonstrate that the nonlinear coupling between diffusive transport (heat and vapor), phase changes and ice mass conservation contains a wave instability that may be relevant for weak layer formation. Numerical requirements are discussed in view of the underlying homogenization scheme.
Anna Simson, Henning Löwe, and Julia Kowalski
The Cryosphere, 15, 5423–5445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5423-2021, 2021
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This companion paper deals with numerical particularities of partial differential equations underlying one-dimensional snow models. In this second part we include mechanical settling and develop a new hybrid (Eulerian–Lagrangian) method for solving the advection-dominated ice mass conservation on a moving mesh alongside Eulerian diffusion (heat and vapor) and phase changes. The scheme facilitates a modular and extendable solver strategy while retaining controls on numerical accuracy.
Thomas Brall, Vladimir Mares, Rolf Bütikofer, and Werner Rühm
The Cryosphere, 15, 4769–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4769-2021, 2021
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Neutrons from secondary cosmic rays, measured at 2660 m a.s.l. at Zugspitze, Germany, are highly affected by the environment, in particular by snow, soil moisture, and mountain shielding. To quantify these effects, computer simulations were carried out, including a sensitivity analysis on snow depth and soil moisture. This provides a possibility for snow depth estimation based on the measured number of secondary neutrons. This method was applied at Zugspitze in 2018.
Nora Helbig, Michael Schirmer, Jan Magnusson, Flavia Mäder, Alec van Herwijnen, Louis Quéno, Yves Bühler, Jeff S. Deems, and Simon Gascoin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4607–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, 2021
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The snow cover spatial variability in mountains changes considerably over the course of a snow season. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions the fractional snow-covered area is therefore an essential parameter characterizing how much of the ground surface in a grid cell is currently covered by snow. We present a seasonal algorithm and a spatiotemporal evaluation suggesting that the algorithm can be applied in other geographic regions by any snow model application.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Louis Quéno, Charles Fierz, Alec van Herwijnen, Dylan Longridge, and Nander Wever
The Cryosphere, 14, 3449–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, 2020
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Deep ice layers may form in the snowpack due to preferential water flow with impacts on the snowpack mechanical, hydrological and thermodynamical properties. We studied their formation and evolution at a high-altitude alpine site, combining a comprehensive observation dataset at a daily frequency (with traditional snowpack observations, penetration resistance and radar measurements) and detailed snowpack modeling, including a new parameterization of ice formation in the 1-D SNOWPACK model.
David M. W. Pritchard, Nathan Forsythe, Greg O'Donnell, Hayley J. Fowler, and Nick Rutter
The Cryosphere, 14, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1225-2020, 2020
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This study compares different snowpack model configurations applied in the western Himalaya. The results show how even sparse local observations can help to delineate climate input errors from model structure errors, which provides insights into model performance variation. The results also show how interactions between processes affect sensitivities to climate variability in different model configurations, with implications for model selection in climate change projections.
Michael A. Rawlins, Lei Cai, Svetlana L. Stuefer, and Dmitry Nicolsky
The Cryosphere, 13, 3337–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019, 2019
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We investigate the changing character of runoff, river discharge and other hydrological elements across watershed draining the North Slope of Alaska over the period 1981–2010. Our synthesis of observations and modeling reveals significant increases in the proportion of subsurface runoff and cold season discharge. These and other changes we describe are consistent with warming and thawing permafrost, and have implications for water, carbon and nutrient cycling in coastal environments.
Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 13, 1325–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in the Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) and the French Alps under past and future conditions (1950–2100) using state-of-the-art climate projections and snowpack modelling accounting for snow management, i.e. grooming and snowmaking. The snow reliability of ski resorts shows strong elevation and regional differences, and our study quantifies changes in snow reliability induced by snowmaking under various climate scenarios.
Zhengshi Wang and Shuming Jia
The Cryosphere, 12, 3841–3851, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3841-2018, 2018
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Drifting snowstorms that are hundreds of meters in depth are reproduced using a large-eddy simulation model combined with a Lagrangian particle tracking method, which also exhibits obvious spatial structures following large-scale turbulent vortexes. The horizontal snow transport flux at high altitude, previously not observed, actually occupies a significant proportion of the total flux. Thus, previous models may largely underestimate the total mass flux and consequently snow sublimation.
Franziska Gerber, Nikola Besic, Varun Sharma, Rebecca Mott, Megan Daniels, Marco Gabella, Alexis Berne, Urs Germann, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 12, 3137–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3137-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3137-2018, 2018
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A comparison of winter precipitation variability in operational radar measurements and high-resolution simulations reveals that large-scale variability is well captured by the model, depending on the event. Precipitation variability is driven by topography and wind. A good portion of small-scale variability is captured at the highest resolution. This is essential to address small-scale precipitation processes forming the alpine snow seasonal snow cover – an important source of water.
Edward H. Bair, Andre Abreu Calfa, Karl Rittger, and Jeff Dozier
The Cryosphere, 12, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1579-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1579-2018, 2018
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In Afghanistan, almost no snow measurements exist. Operational estimates use measurements from satellites, but all have limitations. We have developed a satellite-based technique called reconstruction that accurately estimates the snowpack retrospectively. To solve the problem of estimating today's snowpack, we used machine learning, trained on our reconstructed snow estimates, using predictors that are available today. Our results show low errors, demonstrating the utility of this approach.
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