Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2020
| 22 Oct 2020
On the importance of snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size in assessing the avalanche danger level
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Karsten Müller
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate NVE, Oslo, Norway
Jürg Schweizer
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
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Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Achille Capelli, Franziska Koch, Patrick Henkel, Markus Lamm, Florian Appel, Christoph Marty, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 505–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-505-2022, 2022
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Snow occurrence, snow amount, snow density and liquid water content (LWC) can vary considerably with climatic conditions and elevation. We show that low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sensors as GPS can be used for reliably measuring the amount of water stored in the snowpack or snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth and the LWC under a broad range of climatic conditions met at different elevations in the Swiss Alps.
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
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How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
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Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Silvan Leinss, and Yves Bühler
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Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
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We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
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Short summary
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Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
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Grégoire Bobillier, Bastian Bergfeld, Achille Capelli, Jürg Dual, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
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The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Matthias Heck, Alec van Herwijnen, Conny Hammer, Manuel Hobiger, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
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Short summary
Short summary
We used continuous seismic data from two small aperture geophone arrays deployed in the region above Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps to develop a machine learning workflow to automatically identify signals generated by snow avalanches. Our results suggest that the method presented could be used to identify major avalanche periods and highlight the importance of array processing techniques for the automatic classification of avalanches in seismic data.
Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer, Elisabetta Ceaglio, Cécile Coléou, Samuel Morin, Francesca Rastelli, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2697–2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, 2018
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In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.
Matthias Heck, Conny Hammer, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Donat Fäh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-383-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use hidden Markov models, a machine learning algorithm to automatically identify avalanche events in a continuous seismic data set recorded during the winter 2010. With additional post processing steps, we detected around 70 avalanche events. Although not every detection could be confirmed as an avalanche, we clearly identified the two main avalanche periods of the winter season 2010 in our classification results.
Christopher J. L. D'Amboise, Karsten Müller, Laurent Oxarango, Samuel Morin, and Thomas V. Schuler
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3547–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3547-2017, 2017
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We present a new water percolation routine added to the Crocus model. The new routine is physically based, describing motion of water through a layered snowpack considering capillary-driven and gravity flow. We tested the routine on two data sets. Wet-snow layers were able to reach higher saturations than the empirical routine. Meaningful applicability is limited until new and better parameterizations of water retention are developed, and feedbacks are adjusted to handle higher saturations.
Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, Guillaume Chambon, Nander Wever, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 11, 217–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-217-2017, 2017
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Based on DEM simulations we developed a new model for the onset of crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release. The model reconciles past approaches by considering the complex interplay between slab elasticity and the mechanical behavior of the weak layer including its structural collapse. The model agrees with extensive field data and can reproduce crack propagation on low-angle terrain and the decrease in critical crack length with increasing slope angle observed in numerical experiments.
Alexandre Badoux, Norina Andres, Frank Techel, and Christoph Hegg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2747–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2747-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A database of fatalities caused by natural hazards in Switzerland was compiled for the period from 1946 to 2015: in 70 years, 635 events occurred causing 1023 fatalities. The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfalls (8 %) and landslides (7 %). The annual number of victims showed a distinct decrease over time. In comparison to other countries, the natural hazard mortality rate in Switzerland is quite low.
Jürg Schweizer, Benjamin Reuter, Alec van Herwijnen, Bettina Richter, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 10, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2637-2016, 2016
Frank Techel, Frédéric Jarry, Georg Kronthaler, Susanna Mitterer, Patrick Nairz, Miha Pavšek, Mauro Valt, and Gian Darms
Geogr. Helv., 71, 147–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-71-147-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-71-147-2016, 2016
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During the last 45 years, about 100 people lost their lives in avalanches in the European Alps each year. Avalanche fatalities in settlements and on transportation corridors have considerably decreased since the 1970s. In contrast, the number of avalanche fatalities during recreational activities away from avalanche-secured terrain doubled between the 1960s and 1980s and has remained relatively stable since, despite a continuing strong increase in winter backcountry recreational activities.
Fabiano Monti, Johan Gaume, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 775–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-775-2016, 2016
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We propose a new approach based on a simplification of the multi-layered elasticity theory in order to easily compute the additional stress due to a skier at the depth of the weak layer, taking into account the layering of the snow slab and the substratum. The method was tested on simplified snow profiles, then on manually observed snow profiles including a stability test and, finally, on simulated snow profiles, thereby showing the promise of our approach.
J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, G. Chambon, K. W. Birkeland, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1915–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, 2015
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We proposed a new approach to characterize the dynamic phase of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers as well as fracture arrest propensity by means of numerical "propagation saw test" simulations based on the discrete element method. Crack propagation speed and distance before fracture arrest were derived from the simulations for different snowpack configurations and mechanical properties. Numerical and experimental results were compared and the mechanical processes at play were discussed.
F. Techel, B. Zweifel, and K. Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1985–1997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1985-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1985-2015, 2015
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We present a spatiotemporal picture of winter backcountry usage in the Swiss Alps and compare this with the distribution of avalanche accidents.
Critical avalanche danger conditions and an unfavorable snowpack (old snow problem) strongly increase the risk of winter backcountry recreationists to be involved in a severe avalanche accident. This explains why there are comparably more accidents in the inneralpine regions with less activity.
B. Reuter, J. Schweizer, and A. van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 9, 837–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-837-2015, 2015
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We present a novel approach to estimate point snow instability based on snow mechanical properties from snow micro-penetrometer measurements. This is the first approach that takes into account the essential processes involved in dry-snow slab avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. Comparison with field observations confirms that the two-step calculation of a stability criterion and a critical crack length is suited to describe point snow instability.
J. Gaume, G. Chambon, N. Eckert, M. Naaim, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, 2015
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Slab tensile failure propensity is examined using a mechanical--statistical model of the slab–-weak layer (WL) system based on the finite element method. This model accounts for WL heterogeneity, stress redistribution by elasticity of the slab and the slab possible tensile failure. For realistic values of the parameters, the tensile failure propensity is mainly driven by slab properties. Hard and thick snow slabs are more prone to wide–scale crack propagation and thus lead to larger avalanches.
J. Schweizer and B. Reuter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 109–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-109-2015, 2015
F. Techel and C. Pielmeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 779–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-779-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-779-2014, 2014
I. Reiweger and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 7, 1447–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1447-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1447-2013, 2013
C. Mitterer and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 7, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-205-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-205-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Snow | Subject: Natural Hazards
Snow mechanical property variability at the slope scale – implication for snow mechanical modelling
Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity
Can Saharan dust deposition impact snowpack stability in the French Alps?
A closed-form model for layered snow slabs
A random forest model to assess snow instability from simulated snow stratigraphy
Using snow depth observations to provide insight into the quality of snowpack simulations for regional-scale avalanche forecasting
Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE): 32 years of monitoring remote avalanche depositional zones in high mountains of Afghanistan
Brief communication: Weak control of snow avalanche deposit volumes by avalanche path morphology
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019
Dynamic crack propagation in weak snowpack layers: insights from high-resolution, high-speed photography
Avalanche danger level characteristics from field observations of snow instability
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
The mechanical origin of snow avalanche dynamics and flow regime transitions
On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level
Validating modeled critical crack length for crack propagation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK
Where are the avalanches? Rapid SPOT6 satellite data acquisition to map an extreme avalanche period over the Swiss Alps
Cold-to-warm flow regime transition in snow avalanches
Francis Meloche, Francis Gauthier, and Alexandre Langlois
The Cryosphere, 18, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024, 2024
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Snow avalanches are a dangerous natural hazard. Backcountry recreationists and avalanche practitioners try to predict avalanche hazard based on the stability of snow cover. However, snow cover is variable in space, and snow stability observations can vary within several meters. We measure the snow stability several times on a small slope to create high-resolution maps of snow cover stability. These results help us to understand the snow variation for scientists and practitioners.
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
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Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Oscar Dick, Léo Viallon-Galinier, François Tuzet, Pascal Hagenmuller, Mathieu Fructus, Benjamin Reuter, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust deposition can drastically change the snow color, turning mountain landscapes into sepia scenes. Dust increases the absorption of solar energy by the snow cover and thus modifies the snow evolution and potentially the avalanche risk. Here we show that dust can lead to increased or decreased snowpack stability depending on the snow and meteorological conditions after the deposition event. We also show that wet-snow avalanches happen earlier in the season due to the presence of dust.
Philipp Weißgraeber and Philipp L. Rosendahl
The Cryosphere, 17, 1475–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, 2023
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The work presents a mathematical model that calculates the behavior of layered snow covers in response to loadings. The information is necessary to predict the formation of snow slab avalanches. While sophisticated computer simulations may achieve the same goal, they can require weeks to run. By using mathematical simplifications commonly used by structural engineers, the present model can provide hazard assessments in milliseconds, even for snowpacks with many layers of different types of snow.
Stephanie Mayer, Alec van Herwijnen, Frank Techel, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
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Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
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Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Arnaud Caiserman, Roy C. Sidle, and Deo Raj Gurung
The Cryosphere, 16, 3295–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, 2022
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Snow avalanches cause considerable material and human damage in all mountain regions of the world. We present the first model to automatically inventory avalanche deposits at the scale of a catchment area – here the Amu Panj in Afghanistan – every year since 1990. This model called Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) is available online on the Google Engine. SAFE has been designed to be simple and universal to use. Nearly 810 000 avalanches were detected over the 32 years studied.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in snow-covered mountain regions. To mitigate the effects of avalanches, warnings are issued by public forecasting services. Presently, the five danger levels are described in qualitative terms. We aim to characterize the avalanche danger levels based on expert field observations of snow instability. Our findings contribute to an evidence-based description of danger levels and to improve consistency and accuracy of avalanche forecasts.
Pascal Haegeli, Bret Shandro, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 15, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, 2021
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Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
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This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
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Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
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Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Yves Bühler, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Benjamin Zweifel, Mathias Zesiger, and Holger Heisig
The Cryosphere, 13, 3225–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, 2019
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We manually map 18 737 avalanche outlines based on SPOT6 optical satellite imagery acquired in January 2018. This is the most complete and accurate avalanche documentation of a large avalanche period covering a big part of the Swiss Alps. This unique dataset can be applied for the validation of other remote-sensing-based avalanche-mapping procedures and for updating avalanche databases to improve hazard maps.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
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Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
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Short summary
Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively...
