Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modelling climate-induced instability of ice-rich permafrost slopes
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- Final revised paper (published on 18 Sep 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 15 Apr 2026)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-916', Ian Shirley, 23 May 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Juditha Aga, 17 Jun 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-916', Sebastian Uhlemann, 29 May 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Juditha Aga, 17 Jun 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (23 Jun 2026) by Guillaume Chambon
AR by Juditha Aga on behalf of the Authors (23 Jun 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Jul 2026) by Guillaume Chambon
RR by Sebastian Uhlemann (20 Jul 2026)
ED: Publish as is (27 Aug 2026) by Guillaume Chambon
AR by Juditha Aga on behalf of the Authors (06 Sep 2026)
This paper introduces a slope stability index within the recently developed geomechanical module of the CryoGrid community model to evaluate slope instability associated with thawing ice-rich permafrost terrain.
The geomechanical scheme is based on established geotechnical formulations and is appropriately implemented. Its coupling to CryoGrid, which mechanistically simulates permafrost thermal and hydrological dynamics, represents an important advance for physically based prediction of thaw-driven slope instability under climate change. The work is timely given the expected increase in permafrost slope failures and their implications for infrastructure, landscape evolution, and carbon-climate feedbacks.
A particular strength of the paper is the attempt to bridge process-based permafrost modeling with regional-scale observations of slope failure occurrence using the proposed Thawing Slope Stability Index (TSSI). At Banks Island, Canada, the modeled slope stability index compares favorably with long-term records of retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) initiation. I do think, however, that the paper would benefit from a more explicit and nuanced discussion of this comparison, given that the model represents active layer detachment failures (ALDF) rather than the observed RTS failures.
The paper is very well written and clearly organized, and will make an important contribution to the field. Please see some more detailed comments below.
1. Comparison between modeled ALDF and observed RTS initiation
The main conceptual issue I have with this manuscript concerns the comparison between the modeled instability and the observational dataset used for validation. The implemented mechanics represent ALDF-style instability, since thaw consolidation and elevated pore water pressures drive reduced shear strength at the permafrost table. The observational dataset, on the other hand, consists of RTS initiation, which involves additional thermo-erosional and geomorphic drivers. I therefore think the manuscript should state much more explicitly throughout (including in the abstract/discussion) that the model is simulating ALDF-style instability rather than RTS initiation itself.
I do think the comparison to RTS observations is meaningful, particularly given the strong association between widespread RTS initiation and simulated ALDF, but the manuscript should spend more time discussing why this association exists. For example, ALDF may directly contribute to RTS initiation through exposure of massive ice and subsequent thermoerosional degradation of the exposed headwall. This idea is somewhat implicit in the manuscript, but is never explicitly discussed. At the same time, the manuscript overstates the degree to which RTS initiation can be attributed specifically to ALDF, e.g. “with warm summers causing the majority of RTS in the fieldsite, their initiation is likely connected to the scar zones of ALDF, rather than slope-undercuttings or blockfalls ” (L185). I do not think this conclusion is yet fully justified mechanistically. Warm summers could plausibly enhance RTS initiation in different ways, including via thaw-driven ALDF, but also via warming accelerated fluvial or coastal thermoerosion. Indeed, the authors observe that RTS are strongly concentrated along rivers, lakes, and coastlines (~L340), which suggests that undercutting mechanisms may still play an important role. Some of the agreement between model and observations may therefore reflect the fact that the meteorological conditions that increase susceptibility to ALDF also increase susceptibility to RTS in these environments, even where the precise triggering mechanisms differ.
Overall, I think the manuscript would be strengthened by framing the model more explicitly as a simulation of ALDF-style slope instability that may contribute to the observed RTS initiation through exposure of massive ice, while also recognizing that ALDF and RTS initiation may simply be promoted by similar meteorological conditions. This would help avoid implying that RTS initiation itself is being directly simulated.
2. Aspect controls on TSSI
In section 3.3.2, you discuss the somewhat surprising result that variation in aspect has relatively little influence on simulated TSSI. This is an interesting and potentially important result, given the strong topographic control on incoming shortwave radiation that is often assumed to influence thaw-driven slope instability. However, I do not think the implications of this result are fully explored, and the discussion around ~L365-370 somewhat overstates the role of aspect relative to the presented results. I think this discussion should be revised to better reflect the weak modeled aspect sensitivity shown in Fig. 6.
Since this weak aspect dependence is somewhat unexpected, I also think it would be useful to include at least a simple comparison of observed RTS occurrence versus aspect class. If observed RTS occurrence likewise shows weak aspect dependence, this would substantially strengthen the interpretation that landscape-scale variability in thaw-driven slope instability at this site is controlled more strongly by factors such as slope angle and ground ice conditions than by aspect-driven differences in radiation loading. On the other hand, if the observations exhibit a stronger aspect dependence than the model, this could point to an important model limitation.
Minor comments