Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026
Research article
 | 
18 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 18 Sep 2026

Modelling climate-induced instability of ice-rich permafrost slopes

Juditha Aga, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, and Sebastian Westermann

Data sets

ArcticDEM - Mosaics, Version 4.1 C. Porter et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/3VDC4W

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

CryoGrid source code for "Modelling climate-induced instability of ice-rich permafrost slopes" J. Aga https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18492186

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Short summary
In this study, we explore the influence of a warming climate on landslides in ice-rich permafrost slopes. Using climate, terrain and soil data, we built a model that simulates permafrost thaw and its impact on slope stability over time. We tested the model on Banks Island, Canada, and it reproduced years with many new landslide observations and identified the most susceptible slopes. The model can also be applied to other permafrost regions, and to both past and future climate conditions.
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