Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
29 Jun 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 29 Jun 2026
| 29 Jun 2026
Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier
Alexander T. Bradley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
David T. Bett
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
C. Rosie Williams
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Robert J. Arthern
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
James Byrne
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Tamsin L. Edwards
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
Mira Adhikari
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Related authors
Megan C. James, Tamsin L. Edwards, Tom Matthews, Alexander T. Bradley, James F. O'Neill, and Harry Zekollari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
As the climate warms, glaciers are shrinking, contributing to sea-level rise, natural hazards and water insecurity. We show for one case study – the very long-term response of Iceland’s glaciers to global warming – that large uncertainties arise from the poorly known parameters within models. This is usually overlooked, but we show neglecting it underestimates uncertainty in our glacier model by as much as 90 %, highlighting the importance of accounting for it in future glacier projections.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, Bertie W. J. Miles, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, and Robert J. Arthern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
An ice-ocean model is used to explore the 20th-century evolution of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica. Several processes are involved as the ice retreats to its present-day state, including ocean melting, the floatation of a historically-grounded ice island, ice crevassing and damage, and changing of ice-flow patterns. Multiple options for steady historical Thwaites Glacier configurations are found, with these options compared against 1940s aerial imagery and evidence from seabed sediments.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Anna Olivé Abelló, Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yavor Kostov, and Paul R. Holland
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic icebergs release large amounts of freshwater, but models often add it entirely at the ocean surface. Using simulations with drifting icebergs, we assessed whether releasing meltwater at depth alters the Southern Ocean's response. Most meltwater remained in the surface mixed layer, and deeper release caused only weak, local changes in the ocean, sea ice and ice shelf melting. Hence, surface release remains a reasonable approach for large-scale studies, though depth matters regionally.
Paul Holland, Adrian Jenkins, David Bett, and Suzanne Bevan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Ice loss from the Amundsen Sea sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. In this study we use ocean simulations to understand the ice melting in this sector. The strongest melting is focussed on deep ice where the glaciers flow into the ocean. Secondary areas of melting occur beneath meltwater currents. The simulations are used to test simple mathematical representations of melting that could be built into an ice sheet model.
Megan C. James, Tamsin L. Edwards, Tom Matthews, Alexander T. Bradley, James F. O'Neill, and Harry Zekollari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
As the climate warms, glaciers are shrinking, contributing to sea-level rise, natural hazards and water insecurity. We show for one case study – the very long-term response of Iceland’s glaciers to global warming – that large uncertainties arise from the poorly known parameters within models. This is usually overlooked, but we show neglecting it underestimates uncertainty in our glacier model by as much as 90 %, highlighting the importance of accounting for it in future glacier projections.
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, Bertie W. J. Miles, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, and Robert J. Arthern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
An ice-ocean model is used to explore the 20th-century evolution of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica. Several processes are involved as the ice retreats to its present-day state, including ocean melting, the floatation of a historically-grounded ice island, ice crevassing and damage, and changing of ice-flow patterns. Multiple options for steady historical Thwaites Glacier configurations are found, with these options compared against 1940s aerial imagery and evidence from seabed sediments.
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The South American Andes are the least well known in their futures. We can use numerical models to estimate the change of these glaciers to future climate change. However, options within the numerical model which effect the results are unknown. We vary these options of selected important options to understand their effect on the numerical model output across the South American Andes. We find that how the model approximates sediment friction, and sliding, to be important on model output.
Kevin Hank, Robert J. Arthern, C. Rosie Williams, Alex M. Brisbourne, Andrew M. Smith, James A. Smith, Anna Wåhlin, and Sridhar Anandakrishnan
The Cryosphere, 20, 495–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The slipperiness at the ice base is a key uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Alternative formulations of the sliding law exist, but limited access to the ice base makes it difficult to validate them. We introduce a new approach using observations and model output to infer a basal sliding law. For Pine Island Glacier, currently the largest single contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica, the results provide support for a Coulomb-type sliding law and widespread low effective pressures.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 6421–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Katie Lowery, Pierre Dutrieux, Paul R. Holland, Anna E. Hogg, Noel Gourmelen, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 19, 4893–4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using CryoSat-2, we observe monthly changes in the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf surface and derive oceanic melt at its base. Basal channels, kilometres wide, are reflected in the ice surface and captured in our observations. We demonstrate that melt is concentrated on the western walls of channels, that channels play a role in grounding pinning points, and that PIG's main channel geometry is inherited upstream of the grounding line. These results highlight the importance of channels to ice shelf stability.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Cited articles
Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, 2006. a
Arthern, R. J., Winebrenner, D. P., and Vaughan, D.: Antarctic Snow Accumulation Mapped Using Polarization of 4.3-cm Wavelength Microwave Emission, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005667, 2006. a
Aschwanden, A. and Brinkerhoff, D.: Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099058, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099058, 2022. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021. a
Bach, E. and Dunbar, O.: How do we estimate climate parameters? An introduction to ensemble Kalman inversion, https://clima.caltech.edu/2023/06/12/how-do-we-estimate-climate-parameters (last access: 13 May 2025), 2023. a
Bastos, L. S. and O’Hagan, A.: Diagnostics for Gaussian process emulators, Technometrics, 51, 425–438, 2009. a
Berdahl, M., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., and Urban, N. M.: Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties, The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021. a
Bett, D. T., Holland, P. R., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Kimura, S., and Fleming, A.: The impact of the Amundsen Sea freshwater balance on ocean melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016305, 2020. a
Bett, D. T., Bradley, A. T., Williams, C. R., Holland, P. R., Arthern, R. J., and Goldberg, D. N.: Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector, The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024. a
Bevan, S., Cornford, S., Gilbert, L., Otosaka, I., Martin, D., and Surawy-Stepney, T.: Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change, J. Glaciol., 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57, 2023. a
Bradley, A.: alextbradley/PIG-attribution: zenodo push, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20341644, 2025. a
Bradley, A. T. and Hewitt, I. J.: Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nat. Geosci., 17, 631–637, 2024. a
Bradley, A. T., Bett, D. T., Dutrieux, P., De Rydt, J., and Holland, P. R.: The influence of Pine Island Ice Shelf calving on basal melting, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2022JC018621, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018621, 2022. a, b, c
Bradley, A. T., De Rydt, J., Bett, D. T., Dutrieux, P., and Holland, P. R.: The ice dynamic and melting response of Pine Island Ice Shelf to calving, Ann. Glaciol., 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.24, 2023. a
Burger, M., Wentz, J., and Horton, R.: The law and science of climate change attribution, Colum. J. Envtl. L., 45, 57, 2020. a
Chartrand, A. M., Howat, I. M., Joughin, I. R., and Smith, B. E.: Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone, The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024. a
Choi, Y., Petty, A., Felikson, D., and Poterjoy, J.: Estimation of the state and parameters in ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter and Observing System Simulation Experiments, The Cryosphere, 19, 5423–5444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5423-2025, 2025. a
Christian, J. E., Robel, A. A., and Catania, G.: A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats, The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Christianson, K., Bushuk, M., Dutrieux, P., Parizek, B. R., Joughin, I. R., Alley, R. B., Shean, D. E., Abrahamsen, E. P., Anandakrishnan, S., Heywood, K. J., Kim, T.-W., Lee, S. H., Nicholls, K., Stanton, T., Truffer, M., Webber, B. G. M., Jenkins, A., Jacobs, S., Bindschadler, R., and Holland, D. M.: Sensitivity of Pine Island Glacier to observed ocean forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10–817, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070500, 2016. a
Clark, R. W., Wellner, J. S., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Totten, R. L., Smith, J. A., Miller, L. E., Larter, R. D., Hogan, K. A., Graham, A. G., Nitsche, F. O., Lehrmann, A. A., Lepp, A. P., Kirkham, J. D., Fitzgerald, V. T., Garcia-Barrera, G., Ehrmann, W., and Wacker, L.: Synchronous retreat of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in response to external forcings in the presatellite era, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 121, e2211711120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2211711120, 2024. a, b
Coulon, V., Klose, A. K., Kittel, C., Edwards, T., Turner, F., Winkelmann, R., and Pattyn, F.: Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model, The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
De Rydt, J. and Naughten, K.: Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024. a, b
De Rydt, J., Holland, P. R., Dutrieux, P., and Jenkins, A.: Geometric and oceanographic controls on melting beneath Pine Island Glacier, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 2420–2438, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009513, 2014. a, b, c
Dunbar, O. R., Garbuno-Inigo, A., Schneider, T., and Stuart, A. M.: Calibration and uncertainty quantification of convective parameters in an idealized GCM, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002454, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002454, 2021. a
Dutrieux, P., De Rydt, J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Abrahamsen, E. P., and Schröder, M.: Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability, Science, 343, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244341, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f
Edwards, T. L., Brandon, M. A., Durand, G., Edwards, N. R., Golledge, N. R., Holden, P. B., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Ritz, C., and Wernecke, A.: Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability, Nature, 566, 58–64, 2019. a
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., 1211–1362, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021. a
Garbuno-Inigo, A., Hoffmann, F., Li, W., and Stuart, A. M.: Interacting Langevin diffusions: Gradient structure and ensemble Kalman sampler, SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst., 19, 412–441, 2020. a
Gawlikowski, J., Tassi, C. R. N., Ali, M., Lee, J., Humt, M., Feng, J., Kruspe, A., Triebel, R., Jung, P., Roscher, R., Shahzad, M., Yang, W., Bamler, R., and Zhu, X. X.: A survey of uncertainty in deep neural networks, Artif. Intell. Rev., 56, 1513–1589, 2023. a
Gillet-Chaulet, F.: Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter, The Cryosphere, 14, 811–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020, 2020. a
Goldberg, D. N.: A variationally derived, depth-integrated approximation to a higher-order glaciological flow model, J. Glaciol., 57, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311795306763, 2011. a
Goldberg, D. N., Heimbach, P., Joughin, I., and Smith, B.: Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration, The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015, 2015. a
Gu, M., Palomo, J., and Berger, J. O.: RobustGaSP: Robust Gaussian stochastic process emulation in R, The R Journal, 11, 2019. a
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., and Steig, E. J.: West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718–724, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9, 2019. a, b, c
Holland, P. R., O'Connor, G. K., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Naughten, K. A., Steig, E. J., Schneider, D. P., Jenkins, A., and Smith, J. A.: Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries, The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d
Holland, P. R., Bevan, S. L., and Luckman, A. J.: Strong ocean melting feedback during the recent retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103088, 2023. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844, 2022. a
Jantre, S., Hoffman, M. J., Urban, N. M., Hillebrand, T., Perego, M., Price, S., and Jakeman, J. D.: Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt, The Cryosphere, 18, 5207–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, 2024. a
Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S. S., McPhail, S. D., Perrett, J. R., Webb, A. T., and White, D.: Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat, Nat. Geosci., 3, 468–472, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo890, 2010. a
Joughin, I., Shapero, D., Smith, B., Dutrieux, P., and Barham, M.: Ice-shelf retreat drives recent Pine Island Glacier speedup, Sci. Adv., 7, eabg3080, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg3080, 2021. a
King, R. C., Mansfield, L. A., and Sheshadri, A.: Bayesian History Matching applied to the calibration of a gravity wave parameterization, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 16, e2023MS004163, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004163, 2024. a
Kovachki, N. B. and Stuart, A. M.: Ensemble Kalman inversion: a derivative-free technique for machine learning tasks, Inverse Probl., 35, 095005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6420/ab1c3a, 2019. a
Larter, R. D., Anderson, J. B., Graham, A. G., Gohl, K., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Jakobsson, M., Johnson, J. S., Kuhn, G., Nitsche, F. O., Smith, J. A., Witus, A. E., Bentley, M. J., Dowdeswell, J. A., Ehrmann, W., Klages, J. P., Lindow, J., Ó Cofaigh, C., and Spiegel, C.: Reconstruction of changes in the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the last glacial maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 100, 55–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.016, 2014. a, b, c
Lhermitte, S., Sun, S., Shuman, C., Wouters, B., Pattyn, F., Wuite, J., Berthier, E., and Nagler, T.: Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, 24735–24741, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117, 2020. a, b
Mansfield, L. and Sheshadri, A.: Calibration and uncertainty quantification of a gravity wave parameterization: A case study of the quasi-biennial oscillation in an intermediate complexity climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2022MS003245, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003245, 2022. a, b
Marjanac, S. and Patton, L.: Extreme weather event attribution science and climate change litigation: an essential step in the causal chain?, J. Energy Nat. Resources L., 36, 265–298, 2018. a
Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K., and Parkes, D.: Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes, Science, 345, 919–921, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254702, 2014. a, b
McNeall, D. J., Challenor, P. G., Gattiker, J. R., and Stone, E. J.: The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1715–1728, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1715-2013, 2013. a
Meredith, M. M., Sommerkorn, S., Cassotta, C., Derksen, A., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, G., Kofinas, Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E. A. G.: Polar Regions, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964, 2019. a
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., van den Broeke, M. R., van Ommen, T. D., van Wessem, M., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., and Scheuchl, B.: Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1576–1584, 2014. a
Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., and Rignot, E.: MEaSUREs Annual Antarctic Ice Velocity Maps, Version 1, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/9T4EPQXTJYW9, 2017. a
Naughten, K. A., Holland, P. R., Dutrieux, P., Kimura, S., Bett, D. T., and Jenkins, A.: Simulated Twentieth-Century Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL094566, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094566, 2022. a, b, c
Nias, I. J., Cornford, S. L., Edwards, T. L., Gourmelen, N., and Payne, A. J.: Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11253–11260, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084941, 2019. a
Nias, I. J., Nowicki, S., Felikson, D., and Loomis, B.: Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 128, e2022JF006914, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jf006914, 2023. a
O'Connor, G. K., Holland, P. R., Steig, E. J., Dutrieux, P., and Hakim, G. J.: Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023. a, b, c
O’Hagan, A.: Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: A tutorial, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 91, 1290–1300, 2006. a
Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sørensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallée, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023. a, b
Otto, F. E.: Attribution of weather and climate events, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 42, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847, 2017. a
Pritchard, H., Ligtenberg, S. R., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012. a, b
Reed, B., Green, J. A. M., Jenkins, A., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier, The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024b. a
Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., and Winkelmann, R.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Van Wessem, M. J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 116, 1095–1103, 2019. a
Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., and Hindmarsh, R. C.: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations, Nature, 528, 115–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147, 2015. a
Robel, A. A., Seroussi, H., and Roe, G. H.: Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 116, 14887–14892, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904822116, 2019. a, b
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., and Marzeion, B.: On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change, The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021. a, b
Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Winkelmann, R.: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021. a
Rosier, S. H. R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Jenkins, A., and Naughten, K. A.: Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios, The Cryosphere, 19, 2527–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025, 2025. a
Seroussi, H. and Morlighem, M.: Representation of basal melting at the grounding line in ice flow models, The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018. a
Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., and Rignot, E.: Warm ocean is eroding West Antarctic ice sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021284, 2004. a, b
Slangen, A. B., Church, J. A., Zhang, X., and Monselesan, D.: Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5951–5959, 2014. a
Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo, F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., Harbeck, K., Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., and Zwally, H. J.: Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes, Science, 368, 1239–1242, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5845, 2020. a, b
Smith, J. A., Andersen, T., Shortt, M., Gaffney, A., Truffer, M., Stanton, T. P., Bindschadler, R., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Ehrmann, W., Corr, H. F. J., Farley, N., Crowhurst, S., and Vaughan, D. G.: Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier, Nature, 541, 77–80, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20136, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D., and Jenkins, A.: Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 19–28, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A110, 2012. a
Stuart-Smith, R. F., Roe, G. H., Li, S., and Allen, M. R.: Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat, Nat. Geosci., 14, 85–90, 2021. a
Thomas, E. R., van Wessem, J. M., Roberts, J., Isaksson, E., Schlosser, E., Fudge, T. J., Vallelonga, P., Medley, B., Lenaerts, J., Bertler, N., van den Broeke, M. R., Dixon, D. A., Frezzotti, M., Stenni, B., Curran, M., and Ekaykin, A. A.: Regional Antarctic snow accumulation over the past 1000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017. a
Vargo, L. J., Anderson, B. M., Dadić, R., Horgan, H. J., Mackintosh, A. N., King, A. D., and Lorrey, A. M.: Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 856–861, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0849-2, 2020. a
Webber, B. G., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., Dutrieux, P., Abrahamsen, E. P., Jenkins, A., Jacobs, S. S., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., and Kim, T. W.: Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier, Nat. Commun., 8, 14507, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14507, 2017. a
Wernecke, A., Edwards, T. L., Nias, I. J., Holden, P. B., and Edwards, N. R.: Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data, The Cryosphere, 14, 1459–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020, 2020. a
Williams, C. R., Thodoroff, P., Arthern, R. J., Byrne, J., Hosking, J. S., Kaiser, M., Lawrence, N. D., and Kazlauskaite, I.: Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 60, 2025. a
Yoon, S.-T., Lee, W. S., Nam, S., Lee, C.-K., Yun, S., Heywood, K., Boehme, L., Zheng, Y., Lee, I., Choi, Y., Jenkins, A., Jin, E. K., Larter, R., Wellner, J., Dutrieux, P., and Bradley, A. T.: Ice front retreat reconfigures meltwater-driven gyres modulating ocean heat delivery to an Antarctic ice shelf, Nat. Commun., 13, 306, 2022. a
Editorial statement
This paper provides one of the first formal assessments of the link between anthropogenic climate change and the retreat of Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Using data assimilation methods, this study shows that the observed retreat over the industrial era is unlikely to have occurred without anthropogenic trends in forcing, and that anthropogenic forcing likely amplified 20th Century retreat of Pine Island Glacier by ~18%. The paper also highlights the uncertainties introduced by preconditioned ice mass loss in quantifying 20th Century forcing contributions and the possible role of longer-term changes in present-day retreat.
This paper provides one of the first formal assessments of the link between anthropogenic...
Short summary
At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.
At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice,...
