Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
Research article
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29 Jun 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 29 Jun 2026

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier

Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Byrne, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Mira Adhikari

Model code and software

alextbradley/PIG-attribution: zenodo push Alex Bradley https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20341644

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Editorial statement
This paper provides one of the first formal assessments of the link between anthropogenic climate change and the retreat of Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Using data assimilation methods, this study shows that the observed retreat over the industrial era is unlikely to have occurred without anthropogenic trends in forcing, and that anthropogenic forcing likely amplified 20th Century retreat of Pine Island Glacier by ~18%. The paper also highlights the uncertainties introduced by preconditioned ice mass loss in quantifying 20th Century forcing contributions and the possible role of longer-term changes in present-day retreat.
Short summary

At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.

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