Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2961-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2961-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 May 2026
Research article |
| 22 May 2026
| 22 May 2026
An ice-sheet modelling framework to determine vulnerable regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the past
Benjamin A. Keisling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, 10601 Exploration Way Building 196, Austin, TX 78758, USA
Joerg M. Schaefer
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 US-9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 116th and Broadway, New York, NY 10027, USA
Robert M. DeConto
Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts, 300 Massachusetts Ave, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
Jason P. Briner
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, 126 Cooke Hall, University at Buffalo, Buffalo NY 14260, USA
Nicolás E. Young
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 US-9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
Caleb K. Walcott-George
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, 126 Cooke Hall, University at Buffalo, Buffalo NY 14260, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kentucky, 101 Slone Building, Lexington, KY 40506, USA
Gisela Winckler
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 US-9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, Hogan Hall, 2910 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
Allie Balter-Kennedy
Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, Tufts University, 503 Boston Ave, Medford, MA 02155, USA
Sridhar Anandakrishnan
Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Old Main, University Park, PA 16802, USA
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Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
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As the Arctic warms, the Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass, with implications for global sea levels. We analyzed biomarkers from sediments beneath 1,387 m of ice at Camp Century, Greenland, deposited when the ice sheet was smaller. Reconstructed summer temperature and precipitation isotopes from ~400,000 years ago show summers ~4.7 °C warmer than today, with more local moisture from reduced ice. This result highlights that both how warm and how long warming lasts matter to reduce ice loss.
Jordan T. Abell, Frank J. Pavia, Jennifer L. Middleton, and Gisela Winckler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1583, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Marine sediments provide a unique window into Earth's past, preserving material derived from deserts, volcanoes, rivers, ocean life, and even space. Quantifying how quickly these materials accumulate over time can reveal changes in past environments. Traditional methods for calculating accumulation rates can be unreliable, but a newer approach that uses minute space dust particles offers a more accurate way to track long-term changes in the Earth system.
Kevin Hank, Robert J. Arthern, C. Rosie Williams, Alex M. Brisbourne, Andrew M. Smith, James A. Smith, Anna Wåhlin, and Sridhar Anandakrishnan
The Cryosphere, 20, 495–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026, 2026
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The slipperiness at the ice base is a key uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Alternative formulations of the sliding law exist, but limited access to the ice base makes it difficult to validate them. We introduce a new approach using observations and model output to infer a basal sliding law. For Pine Island Glacier, currently the largest single contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica, the results provide support for a Coulomb-type sliding law and widespread low effective pressures.
Jacob T. H. Anderson, Nicolás E. Young, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Karlee K. Prince, Caleb K. Walcott-George, Brandon L. Graham, Joanna Charton, Jason P. Briner, and Joerg M. Schaefer
Clim. Past, 21, 2263–2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2263-2025, 2025
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We investigated retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation by dating glacial deposits exposed as the ice margin retreated. Our results from eastern and northeastern Greenland reveal ice margin retreat rates of 43 m/yr and 28 m/yr at two marine-terminating outlet glaciers. These retreat rates are consistent with late glacial and Holocene estimates across East Greenland, and are comparable to modern retreat rates observed in northeastern and northwestern Greenland.
Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie A. Goliber, Renette Jones-Ivey, Justin Quinn, Abani Patra, Kristin Poinar, Sophie Nowicki, Beata M. Csatho, and Jason P. Briner
The Cryosphere, 19, 4327–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, 2025
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Ghub is an online platform that hosts tools, datasets, and educational resources related to ice sheet science. These resources are provided by ice sheet researchers and allow other researchers, students, educators, and interested members of the general public to analyze, visualize, and download datasets that researchers use to study past and present ice sheet behavior. We describe how users can interact with Ghub, showcase some available resources, and describe the future of the Ghub project.
Sudip Acharya, Allison A. Cluett, Amy L. Grogan, Jason P. Briner, Isla S. Castañeda, and Elizabeth K. Thomas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3113, 2025
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The study analyzed temperature-sensitive bacterial membrane lipids in Holocene Lake sediments from southwestern Greenland. Temperature maxima in five lakes occurred between 7000–5000 years ago, at a coastal site between 5000–3000 years ago, and at an inland site, far from the coast and the Greenland Ice Sheet, between 9000–7000 years ago. Local temperature variations, influenced by the ice sheet and ocean, likely caused discrepancies in the temperature time series.
Caleb K. Walcott-George, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Jason P. Briner, Joerg M. Schaefer, and Nicolás E. Young
The Cryosphere, 19, 2067–2086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2067-2025, 2025
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Understanding the history and drivers of Greenland Ice Sheet change is important for forecasting future ice sheet retreat. We combined geologic mapping and cosmogenic nuclide measurements to investigate how the Greenland Ice Sheet formed the landscape of Inglefield Land, northwestern Greenland. We found that Inglefield Land was covered by warm- and cold-based ice during multiple glacial cycles and that much of Inglefield Land is an ancient landscape.
Gordon R. M. Bromley, Greg Balco, Margaret S. Jackson, Allie Balter-Kennedy, and Holly Thomas
Clim. Past, 21, 145–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-145-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-145-2025, 2025
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We constructed a geologic record of East Antarctic Ice Sheet thickness from deposits at Otway Massif to directly assess how Earth's largest ice sheet responds to warmer-than-present climate. Our record confirms the long-term dominance of a cold polar climate but lacks a clear ice sheet response to the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, a common analogue for the future. Instead, an absence of moraines from the late Miocene–early Pliocene suggests the ice sheet was less extensive than present at that time.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Joerg M. Schaefer, Greg Balco, Meredith A. Kelly, Michael R. Kaplan, Roseanne Schwartz, Bryan Oakley, Nicolás E. Young, Jean Hanley, and Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke
Clim. Past, 20, 2167–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2167-2024, 2024
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We date sedimentary deposits showing that the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet was at or near its southernmost extent from ~ 26 000 to 21 000 years ago, when sea levels were at their lowest, with climate records indicating glacial conditions. Slow deglaciation began ~ 22 000 years ago, shown by a rise in modeled local summer temperatures, but significant deglaciation in the region did not begin until ~ 18 000 years ago, when atmospheric CO2 began to rise, marking the end of the last ice age.
Karlee K. Prince, Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Brooke M. Chase, Andrew L. Kozlowski, Tammy M. Rittenour, and Erica P. Yang
Geochronology, 6, 409–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-409-2024, 2024
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We fill a spatial data gap in the ice sheet retreat history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet after the Last Glacial Maximum and investigate a hypothesis that the ice sheet re-advanced into western New York, USA, at ~13 ka. With radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, we find that ice began retreating from its maximum extent after 20 ka, but glacial ice persisted in glacial landforms until ~15–14 ka when they finally stabilized. We find no evidence of a re-advance at ~13 ka.
Jennifer L. Middleton, Julia Gottschalk, Gisela Winckler, Jean Hanley, Carol Knudson, Jesse R. Farmer, Frank Lamy, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Expedition 383 Scientists
Geochronology, 6, 125–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-125-2024, 2024
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We present oxygen isotope data for a new sediment core from the South Pacific and assign ages to our record by aligning distinct patterns in observed oxygen isotope changes to independently dated target records with the same patterns. We examine the age uncertainties associated with this approach caused by human vs. automated alignment and the sensitivity of outcomes to the choice of alignment target. These efforts help us understand the timing of past climate changes.
Joseph P. Tulenko, Jason P. Briner, Nicolás E. Young, and Joerg M. Schaefer
Clim. Past, 20, 625–636, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-625-2024, 2024
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We take advantage of a site in Alaska – where climate records are limited and a former alpine glacier deposited a dense sequence of moraines spanning the full deglaciation – to construct a proxy summer temperature record. Building on age constraints for moraines in the valley, we reconstruct paleo-glacier surfaces and estimate the summer temperatures (relative to the Little Ice Age) for each moraine. The record suggests that the influence of North Atlantic climate forcing extended to Alaska.
Caleb K. Walcott, Jason P. Briner, Joseph P. Tulenko, and Stuart M. Evans
Clim. Past, 20, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-91-2024, 2024
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Available data suggest that Alaska was not as cold as many of the high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the Last Ice Age. These results come from isolated climate records, climate models, and data synthesis projects. We used the extents of mountain glaciers during the Last Ice Age and Little Ice Age to show precipitation gradients across Alaska and provide temperature data from across the whole state. Our findings support a relatively warm Alaska during the Last Ice Age.
Gifford H. Miller, Simon L. Pendleton, Alexandra Jahn, Yafang Zhong, John T. Andrews, Scott J. Lehman, Jason P. Briner, Jonathan H. Raberg, Helga Bueltmann, Martha Raynolds, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, and John R. Southon
Clim. Past, 19, 2341–2360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2341-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2341-2023, 2023
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Receding Arctic ice caps reveal moss killed by earlier ice expansions; 186 moss kill dates from 71 ice caps cluster at 250–450, 850–1000 and 1240–1500 CE and continued expanding 1500–1880 CE, as recorded by regions of sparse vegetation cover, when ice caps covered > 11 000 km2 but < 100 km2 at present. The 1880 CE state approached conditions expected during the start of an ice age; climate models suggest this was only reversed by anthropogenic alterations to the planetary energy balance.
Brandon L. Graham, Jason P. Briner, Nicolás E. Young, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Michele Koppes, Joerg M. Schaefer, Kristin Poinar, and Elizabeth K. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 17, 4535–4547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, 2023
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Glacial erosion is a fundamental process operating on Earth's surface. Two processes of glacial erosion, abrasion and plucking, are poorly understood. We reconstructed rates of abrasion and quarrying in Greenland. We derive a total glacial erosion rate of 0.26 ± 0.16 mm per year. We also learned that erosion via these two processes is about equal. Because the site is similar to many other areas covered by continental ice sheets, these results may be applied to many places on Earth.
Adam C. Hawkins, Brian Menounos, Brent M. Goehring, Gerald Osborn, Ben M. Pelto, Christopher M. Darvill, and Joerg M. Schaefer
The Cryosphere, 17, 4381–4397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4381-2023, 2023
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Our study developed a record of glacier and climate change in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada over the past several hundred years. We estimate temperature change in this region using several methods and incorporate our glacier record with models of climate change to estimate how glacier volume in our study area has changed over time. Models of future glacier change show that our study area will become largely ice-free by the end of the 21st century.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Joerg M. Schaefer, Roseanne Schwartz, Jennifer L. Lamp, Laura Penrose, Jennifer Middleton, Jean Hanley, Bouchaïb Tibari, Pierre-Henri Blard, Gisela Winckler, Alan J. Hidy, and Greg Balco
Geochronology, 5, 301–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-301-2023, 2023
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Cosmogenic nuclides like 10Be are rare isotopes created in rocks exposed at the Earth’s surface and can be used to understand glacier histories and landscape evolution. 10Be is usually measured in the mineral quartz. Here, we show that 10Be can be reliably measured in the mineral pyroxene. We use the measurements to determine exposure ages and understand landscape processes in rocks from Antarctica that do not have quartz, expanding the use of this method to new rock types.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Caleb K. Walcott, Jason P. Briner, James F. Baichtal, Alia J. Lesnek, and Joseph M. Licciardi
Geochronology, 4, 191–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-191-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-191-2022, 2022
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We present a record of ice retreat from the northern Alexander Archipelago, Alaska. During the last ice age (~ 26 000–19 000 years ago), these islands were covered by the Cordilleran Ice Sheet. We tested whether islands were ice-free during the last ice age for human migrants moving from Asia to the Americas. We found that these islands became ice-free between ~ 15 100 years ago and ~ 16 000 years ago, and thus these islands were not suitable for human habitation during the last ice age.
María H. Toyos, Gisela Winckler, Helge W. Arz, Lester Lembke-Jene, Carina B. Lange, Gerhard Kuhn, and Frank Lamy
Clim. Past, 18, 147–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-147-2022, 2022
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Past export production in the southeast Pacific and its link to Patagonian ice dynamics is unknown. We reconstruct biological productivity changes at the Pacific entrance to the Drake Passage, covering the past 400 000 years. We show that glacial–interglacial variability in export production responds to glaciogenic Fe supply from Patagonia and silica availability due to shifts in oceanic fronts, whereas dust, as a source of lithogenic material, plays a minor role.
Irene Schimmelpfennig, Joerg M. Schaefer, Jennifer Lamp, Vincent Godard, Roseanne Schwartz, Edouard Bard, Thibaut Tuna, Naki Akçar, Christian Schlüchter, Susan Zimmerman, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 18, 23–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-23-2022, 2022
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Small mountain glaciers advance and recede as a response to summer temperature changes. Dating of glacial landforms with cosmogenic nuclides allowed us to reconstruct the advance and retreat history of an Alpine glacier throughout the past ~ 11 000 years, the Holocene. The results contribute knowledge to the debate of Holocene climate evolution, indicating that during most of this warm period, summer temperatures were similar to or warmer than in modern times.
Sandra M. Braumann, Joerg M. Schaefer, Stephanie M. Neuhuber, Christopher Lüthgens, Alan J. Hidy, and Markus Fiebig
Clim. Past, 17, 2451–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2451-2021, 2021
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Glacier reconstructions provide insights into past climatic conditions and elucidate processes and feedbacks that modulate the climate system both in the past and present. We investigate the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial and generate beryllium-10 moraine chronologies in glaciated catchments of the eastern European Alps. We find that rapid warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cold phases that appear to have influenced large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
Andrew J. Christ, Paul R. Bierman, Jennifer L. Lamp, Joerg M. Schaefer, and Gisela Winckler
Geochronology, 3, 505–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-505-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-505-2021, 2021
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Cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating is commonly used to constrain the timing of past glacier extents. However, Antarctic exposure age datasets are often scattered and difficult to interpret. We compile new and existing exposure ages of a glacial deposit with independently known age constraints and identify surface processes that increase or reduce the likelihood of exposure age scatter. Then we present new data for a previously unmapped and undated older deposit from the same region.
Douglas P. Steen, Joseph S. Stoner, Jason P. Briner, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, 2021
Publication in GChron not foreseen
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Paleomagnetic data from Cascade Lake (Brooks Range, Alaska) extend the radiometric-based age model of the sedimentary sequence extending back 21 kyr. Correlated ages based on prominent features in paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) diverge from the radiometric ages in the upper 1.6 m, by up to about 2000 years at around 4 ka. Four late Holocene cryptotephra in this section support the PSV chronology and suggest the influence of hard water or aged organic material.
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Short summary
Understanding how much the Greenland ice sheet melted in response to past warmth helps better predicting future sea-level change. Here we present a framework called sea-level potential for using numerical ice-sheet model simulations to provide constraints on how much mass the ice sheet loses before different areas become ice-free. As observations from subglacial archives become more abundant, this framework can guide future subglacial sampling efforts.
Understanding how much the Greenland ice sheet melted in response to past warmth helps better...
