The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2026

The importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Elio Campitelli, Ariaan Purich, Julie Arblaster, Eun-Pa Lim, Matthew C. Wheeler, and Phillip Reid

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Latest update: 20 Jul 2026
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Short summary
By comparing sea-ice forecasts made by the same model but using different initial conditions, we show that better initial sea-ice initial conditions improve sea-ice forecasts a lot in Summer and Autumn, but not as much in winter. This means that forecasting groups should focus efforts in assimilating observations in Summer and that research on how easy it is to predict sea ice need to analyse all seasons.
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