Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2026

The importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Elio Campitelli, Ariaan Purich, Julie Arblaster, Eun-Pa Lim, Matthew C. Wheeler, and Phillip Reid

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6049', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Dec 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Elio Campitelli, 04 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6049', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Elio Campitelli, 04 Mar 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6049', Anonymous Referee #3, 27 Jan 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Elio Campitelli, 04 Mar 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (06 Mar 2026) by Bin Cheng
AR by Elio Campitelli on behalf of the Authors (09 Mar 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Mar 2026) by Bin Cheng
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (15 Mar 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Mar 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (30 Mar 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (30 Mar 2026) by Bin Cheng
AR by Elio Campitelli on behalf of the Authors (20 Apr 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (21 Apr 2026) by Bin Cheng
AR by Elio Campitelli on behalf of the Authors (21 Apr 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
By comparing sea-ice forecasts made by the same model but using different initial conditions, we show that better initial sea-ice initial conditions improve sea-ice forecasts a lot in Summer and Autumn, but not as much in winter. This means that forecasting groups should focus efforts in assimilating observations in Summer and that research on how easy it is to predict sea ice need to analyse all seasons.
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