Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2026

The importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Elio Campitelli, Ariaan Purich, Julie Arblaster, Eun-Pa Lim, Matthew C. Wheeler, and Phillip Reid

Data sets

Data for "The Importance of Initial Conditions in Seasonal Predictions of Antarctic Sea Ice" Elio Campitelli https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18844394

Model code and software

eliocamp/access-s2_ice-eval: Accepted version (v1.2.0) Elio Campitelli https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19836407

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Short summary
By comparing sea-ice forecasts made by the same model but using different initial conditions, we show that better initial sea-ice initial conditions improve sea-ice forecasts a lot in Summer and Autumn, but not as much in winter. This means that forecasting groups should focus efforts in assimilating observations in Summer and that research on how easy it is to predict sea ice need to analyse all seasons.
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