Extending the range and reach of physically-based Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections

Goelzer, Heiko; Berends, Constantijn J.; Boberg, Fredrik; Durand, Gael; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Glaude, Quentin; Huybrechts, Philippe; Le clec'h, Sébastien; Mottram, Ruth; Noël, Brice; Olesen, Martin; Rahlves, Charlotte; Rohmer, Jeremy; van den Broeke, Michiel; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

doi:10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 12

Research article

|

18 Dec 2025

Research article |

| 18 Dec 2025

Extending the range and reach of physically-based Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections

Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025-supplement

Data sets

Forcing for PROTECT Greenland ice sheet projections Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.prm9am5n

Ice sheet model output fields from PROTECT Greenland ice sheet projections Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.dlmefxt5

Greenland ice sheet projections for EU-project PROTECT Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.11582/2025.lf9m2wd0

Model code and software

hgoelzer/protect-gris-atmos-forcing: v1.0 Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882933

hgoelzer/protect-gris-generate-overshoot: v1.0 Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882454

hgoelzer/protect-gris-generate-repeat: v1.0 Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882611

hgoelzer/protect-gris-ocean-forcing: v1.0 Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882904

hgoelzer/protect-gris-ocean-processing: v1.0 Heiko Goelzer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17882890

Short summary

We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.