Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2025
| 22 Oct 2025
Spatio-temporal melt and basal channel evolution on Pine Island Glacier ice shelf from CryoSat-2
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Pierre Dutrieux
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Anna E. Hogg
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Noel Gourmelen
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Benjamin J. Wallis
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Yavor Kostov, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Paul R. Holland, Robin S. Smith, Jing Jin, and Antony J. Payne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6314, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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We use machine learning to identify subantarctic water masses in model simulations where increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations induce substantial global warming, and where present-day definitions of ocean layers no longer hold. We then explore how anomalies in the subantarctic water mass properties persist on centennial timescales even after CO2 concentrations are reduced.
Tom A. Jordan, Karen J. Heywood, Anna Wåhlin, Rob A. Hall, Atsuhiro Muto, Pierre Dutrieux, Kelly Hogan, James Girton, Karen E. Alley, and Erin Pettit
Solid Earth, 17, 1187–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-17-1187-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-17-1187-2026, 2026
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The shape of the water filled cavity hidden beneath ice shelves is extremely important, but hard to measure. Gravity data collected from aircraft can be used to predict the shape. However, in the Dotson Crosson ice shelves in West Antarctica, new direct observations from autonomous platforms sent beneath the ice, and seismic observations from the ice surface showed gravity models were systematically too shallow. We explain why and provide a solution applicable her and in other ice shelves.
Emma F. Cameron, Tom R. Cowton, Alexander T. Bradley, and Paul R. Holland
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5769, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Many of Greenland’s glaciers end in fjords, where they are melted by the ocean. Fjords are too small to resolve in ocean models, so melt rates are often estimated from offshore temperatures. We compared temperatures in 38 fjords from mouth to interior: change below 250 metres is small, but in the upper 250 metres, water near glaciers is warmer at mid-depth yet colder at the surface than offshore. These observations can inform use of offshore temperatures to predict near-glacier melt rates.
Mae E. Evans, Anna E. Hogg, Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Benjamin J. Wallis, Ross A. W. Slater, and Richard Rigby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5527, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We studied how 66 glaciers in central and southeast Greenland changed speed over the last decade using satellite observations. Most glaciers sped up between 2016 and 2020, with some more than doubling their speed, before slowing down after 2020. The timing coincided with unusually warm ocean water and reduced sea ice. We show that glacier speed changes in this region were larger and more widespread than previously reported, highlighting how sensitive this region is to environmental change.
Ronja Reese, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Clara Burgard, Erwin Lambert, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Paul R. Holland, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Dutrieux, Shenjie Zhou, Golsa Talebigheshlaghi, and Yanmei Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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An important factor in projections of the Antarctic contribution to future sea level rise is the Southern Ocean. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 aims to provide ice sheet projections, and here we introduce the protocol for handling the ocean in Antarctica. It describes how ocean changes from global atmosphere-ocean models can be used in Antarctic simulations and how ocean conditions can be translated into melt rates, taking into account oceanographic knowledge.
Isabelle F. M. White, Oana Dragomir, Alessandro Silvano, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Anna E. Hogg, Pierre Dutrieux, Laura Herraiz-Borreguero, and Jennifer Cocks
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4414, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
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We present a 22-year sea surface height product in the ice-covered Southern Ocean from Envisat and CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data. Our product is 1° longitude by 0.5° latitude from 50° S to the Antarctic coast. Validation with in-situ, independent satellite and reanalysis data shows it captures seasonal and interannual variability. This supports long-term study of large-scale sea level trends and processes in the Southern Ocean, a region that is observing rapid sea ice and ice sheet melting.
Benjamin J. Davison, Andrew J. Sole, Gregoire Guillet, Douglas I. Benn, Jonathan Kingslake, Jeremy C. Ely, Stephen J. Livingstone, Christopher D. Stringer, Jonathan L. Carrivick, and Anna E. Hogg
The Cryosphere, 20, 4293–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4293-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4293-2026, 2026
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Some glaciers flow slowly for many years before dramatically accelerating. This is usually a sign of a surge. Theory and observations suggest that surges occur in certain climates. The Antarctic Peninsula has such a climate yet only one surge has been observed there. We present detailed observations of three glaciers that surged recently. We explore how climate change over the past hundred years, and projected climate change up to 2150, has and will affect surging behaviour on the Peninsula.
Yikai Zhu, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Wallis, Ross A. W. Slater, and Oliver J. Marsh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3795, 2026
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Satellite measurements are widely used to monitor how fast Antarctic ice is flowing, but the rise and fall of ocean tides can make the ice appear to move faster or slower than it really does. We developed a new way to remove this effect using satellite observations alone and applied it across all Antarctic ice shelves. The corrected measurements provide a more reliable picture of ice movement, improving studies of ice-sheet change and future sea-level rise.
Daniel N. Goldberg, Paul R. Holland, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3779, 2026
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Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise. Using multi-century, high-resolution coupled ice–ocean simulations of the region, we show that 21st century predictions depend strongly on how ice-sheet models are initialized, especially for Thwaites Glacier. By the 22nd century, however, ocean warming becomes the dominant driver, leading to much faster ice loss under high-emissions scenarios, highlighting the importance of improving coupled climate–ice models.
Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Byrne, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Mira Adhikari
The Cryosphere, 20, 3443–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026, 2026
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At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.
Anna Olivé Abelló, Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yavor Kostov, and Paul R. Holland
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3422, 2026
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Antarctic icebergs release large amounts of freshwater, but models often add it entirely at the ocean surface. Using simulations with drifting icebergs, we assessed whether releasing meltwater at depth alters the Southern Ocean's response. Most meltwater remained in the surface mixed layer, and deeper release caused only weak, local changes in the ocean, sea ice and ice shelf melting. Hence, surface release remains a reasonable approach for large-scale studies, though depth matters regionally.
Luisa E. Avilés-Podgurski, Patrick Martineau, Hua Lu, Ayako Yamamoto, Amanda C. Maycock, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Anna E. Hogg, Grzegorz Muszynski, and Andrew Fleming
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1051–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, 2026
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow filaments of intense poleward water vapour transport. On rare occasions, they reach the Arctic, driving strong warming and melt. In April 2020, two ARs intruded into the central Arctic within one week, raising near-surface temperatures by up to 30°C and leading to extreme precipitation. Their distinct paths and thermodynamic evolution reveal diverse AR impacts on Arctic sea ice and precipitation extremes.
Paul Holland, Adrian Jenkins, David Bett, and Suzanne Bevan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2835, 2026
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Ice loss from the Amundsen Sea sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. In this study we use ocean simulations to understand the ice melting in this sector. The strongest melting is focussed on deep ice where the glaciers flow into the ocean. Secondary areas of melting occur beneath meltwater currents. The simulations are used to test simple mathematical representations of melting that could be built into an ice sheet model.
Harry J. Davis, Robert G. Bingham, Carlos Martín, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Andrew S. Hein, and Anna E. Hogg
The Cryosphere, 20, 2735–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2735-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2735-2026, 2026
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Ice in the southern Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing major ice changes today and predicting the rate at which this may continue is important. One way to address this knowledge gap would be to retrieve a past climate record from an ice core. We identify a suitable site using a model constrained by radar and shallow ice core data. We find a climate record spanning the Holocene can certainly be extracted here, but a potential continuous climate record here could extend back ~ 30 000 years.
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026
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There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Karla Boxall, Malcolm McMillan, Alan Muir, Sarah Appleby, Sophie Dubber, Noel Gourmelen, Clare Willis, and Joe Phillips
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-556, 2026
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Satellite radar altimeters have measured ice sheet elevation since the 1990s, but associated uncertainty estimates are often absent or untested, despite being crucial for efforts to estimate past, present and future sea-level rise. Here, we present a new framework to generate and assess uncertainties associated with historical, current and future radar altimeters. Our results show uncertainty performance varies according to processing method, satellite and region.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, Bertie W. J. Miles, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, and Robert J. Arthern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, 2026
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An ice-ocean model is used to explore the 20th-century evolution of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica. Several processes are involved as the ice retreats to its present-day state, including ocean melting, the floatation of a historically-grounded ice island, ice crevassing and damage, and changing of ice-flow patterns. Multiple options for steady historical Thwaites Glacier configurations are found, with these options compared against 1940s aerial imagery and evidence from seabed sediments.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026
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Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Shuntaro Hyogo, Yichen Lin, Taewook Park, Jinho Lee, Juistine Caillet, Gobishankar Mohan, Mattia Poinelli, Pierre Dutrieux, Kazuki Nakata, Hong Zhang, Brice Loose, and Lauren Kowalski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5958, 2026
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We develop a regional ocean model of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in Antarctica. Differences in model setups and parameter choices often limit usability and broader scientific application, especially for non-ocean modellers. We carefully evaluate the model outputs and establish a common control experiment that can be shared and applied across studies with tracer and particle applications. This effort aims to support wide community use and improve understanding of ice–ocean interactions.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia Giulivi, Andrew Meijers, Won Sang Lee, Tae-Wan Kim, Tore Hattermann, and Markus Janout
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-727, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-727, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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A collection of temperature and salinity measurements made in the Southern Ocean and around Antarctic continental shelf seas is assembled and described in this paper. A gridded product developed out of these scattered data points is also described. The gridded product provide us a better view of contemporary mean status of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic shelf seas and help models to better reference the prediction of the future climate.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Sarah Leibrock, Ross A. W. Slater, Anna E. Hogg, and Celia A. Baumhoer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5492, 2025
Preprint archived
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Using satellite data from 2013 to 2024, we studied 42 Antarctic Peninsula glaciers and observed widespread but spatially heterogeneous retreat and ice flow acceleration, with some glaciers more than doubling in speed. In addition to these long-term trends, glacier dynamics exhibited significant seasonal variability, underscoring the highly dynamic nature of glaciers in this region driven by a combination of glacier-specific and environmental factors.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Stephen L. Cornford, and Anna E. Hogg
The Cryosphere, 19, 5531–5545, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5531-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5531-2025, 2025
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The speed at which Antarctic ice flows is dependent on its viscosity and the slipperiness of the ice/bedrock interface. Often, these unknown variables are inferred from observations of ice speed. This article presents an attempt to make this difficult procedure easier by making use of additional information in the form of observations of crevasses, which make ice appear less viscous to numerical models. We find in some circumstances that this leads to more appealing solutions to this problem.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
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We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Yikai Zhu, Anna E. Hogg, Andrew Hooper, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 19, 3971–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3971-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3971-2025, 2025
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This study investigates the long- and short-term changes in the grounding line of the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using satellite observations and a method called Differential Range Offset Tracking (DROT). Our findings show how the grounding line behaves in response to tides and other environmental factors, with implications for understanding ice shelf stability.
Jennifer Cocks, Alessandro Silvano, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Oana Dragomir, Noémie Schifano, Anna E. Hogg, and Alice Marzocchi
Ocean Sci., 21, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1609-2025, 2025
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Heat and freshwater fluxes in the Southern Ocean mediate global ocean circulation and abyssal ventilation. These fluxes manifest as changes in steric height: sea level anomalies from changes in ocean density. We compute the steric height anomaly of the Southern Ocean using satellite data and validate it against in situ observations. We analyse trends and variability in steric height, drawing links to climate variability, and discuss the effectiveness of the method, highlighting issues with its application.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Thomas Slater, Richard Rigby, and Nicolaj Hansen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3259–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, 2025
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Grounding line discharge is a measure of the amount of ice entering the ocean from an ice mass. This paper describes a dataset of grounding line discharge for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and each of its glaciers. The dataset shows that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge has increased since 1996.
Heather L. Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
The Cryosphere, 19, 1725–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, 2025
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We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed-up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10 %, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of “ice piracy” has not previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
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Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Benjamin J. Wallis, Anna E. Hogg, Yikai Zhu, and Andrew Hooper
The Cryosphere, 18, 4723–4742, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4723-2024, 2024
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The grounding line, where ice begins to float, is an essential variable to understand ice dynamics, but in some locations it can be challenging to measure with established techniques. Using satellite data and a new method, Wallis et al. measure the grounding line position of glaciers and ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula and find retreats of up to 16.3 km have occurred since the last time measurements were made in the 1990s.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
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Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
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A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Ian Joughin, Daniel Shapero, and Pierre Dutrieux
The Cryosphere, 18, 2583–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024, 2024
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The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are losing ice to the ocean rapidly as warmer water melts their floating ice shelves. Models help determine how much such glaciers will contribute to sea level. We find that ice loss varies in response to how much melting the ice shelves are subjected to. Our estimated losses are also sensitive to how much the friction beneath the glaciers is reduced as it goes afloat. Melt-forced sea level rise from these glaciers is likely to be less than 10 cm by 2300.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
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Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Rasmus Bahbah, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Natalia Havelund Andersen, Jade Bowling, Noel Gourmelen, Alex Horton, Nanna B. Karlsson, Amber Leeson, Jennifer Maddalena, Malcolm McMillan, Anne Solgaard, and Birgit Wessel
The Cryosphere, 18, 505–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, 2024
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Under the right topographic and hydrological conditions, lakes may form beneath the large ice sheets. Some of these subglacial lakes are active, meaning that they periodically drain and refill. When a subglacial lake drains rapidly, it may cause the ice surface above to collapse, and here we investigate how to improve the monitoring of active subglacial lakes in Greenland by monitoring how their associated collapse basins change over time.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, and David C. Hogg
The Cryosphere, 17, 4421–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4421-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4421-2023, 2023
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The presence of crevasses in Antarctica influences how the ice sheet behaves. It is important, therefore, to collect data on the spatial distribution of crevasses and how they are changing. We present a method of mapping crevasses from satellite radar imagery and apply it to 7.5 years of images, covering Antarctica's floating and grounded ice. We develop a method of measuring change in the density of crevasses and quantify increased fracturing in important parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
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Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
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We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Julia R. Andreasen, Anna E. Hogg, and Heather L. Selley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2059–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2059-2023, 2023
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There are few long-term, high spatial resolution observations of ice shelf change in Antarctica over the past 3 decades. In this study, we use high spatial resolution observations to map the annual calving front location on 34 ice shelves around Antarctica from 2009 to 2019 using satellite data. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of ice front migration across Antarctica over the last decade.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Cited articles
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Davison, B. J., Hogg, A. E., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Wuite, J., Nagler, T., Greene, C. A., Andreasen, J., and Engdahl, M. E.: Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021, Sci. Adv., 9, eadi0186, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186, 2023. a, b, c
De Rydt, J. and Naughten, K.: Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024. a
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Drews, R.: Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 9, 1169–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Drews, R., Brown, J., Matsuoka, K., Witrant, E., Philippe, M., Hubbard, B., and Pattyn, F.: Constraining variable density of ice shelves using wide-angle radar measurements, The Cryosphere, 10, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, 2016. a
Drews, R., Pattyn, F., Hewitt, I. J., Ng, F. S. L., Berger, S., Matsuoka, K., Helm, V., Bergeot, N., Favier, L., and Neckel, N.: Actively evolving subglacial conduits and eskers initiate ice shelf channels at an Antarctic grounding line., Nat. Commun., 8, 15228, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15228, 2017. a, b
Drews, R., Schannwell, C., Ehlers, T. A., Gladstone, R., Pattyn, F., and Matsuoka, K.: Atmospheric and Oceanographic Signatures in the Ice Shelf Channel Morphology of Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, Inferred From Radar Data, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 125, e2020JF005587, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005587, 2020. a
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Dutrieux, P., Rydt, J. D., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Abrahamsen, E. P., and Schröder, M.: Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability, Science, 343, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244341, 2014a. a, b
Dutrieux, P., Stewart, C., Jenkins, A., Nicholls, K. W., Corr, H. F. J., Rignot, E., and Steffen, K.: Basal terraces on melting ice shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5506–5513, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060618, 2014b. a, b, c, d
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014. a
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Friedl, P., Weiser, F., Fluhrer, A., and Braun, M. H.: Remote sensing of glacier and ice sheet grounding lines: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 201, 102948, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102948, 2020. a
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Gourmelen, N., Escorihuela, M., Shepherd, A., Foresta, L., Muir, A., Garcia-Mondéjar, A., Roca, M., Baker, S., and Drinkwater, M.: CryoSat-2 swath interferometric altimetry for mapping ice elevation and elevation change, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1226–1242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.11.014, 2018. a
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Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a
Joughin, I., Shapero, D., Smith, B., Dutrieux, P., and Barham, M.: Ice-shelf retreat drives recent Pine Island Glacier speedup, Sci. Adv., 7, eabg3080, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg3080, 2021. a, b
Le Brocq, A. M., Ross, N., Griggs, J. A., Bingham, R. G., Corr, H. F. J., Ferraccioli, F., Jenkins, A., Jordan, T. A., Payne, A. J., Rippin, D. M., and Siegert, M. J. : Evidence from ice shelves for channelized meltwater flow beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet., Nat. Geosci, 6, 945–948, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1977, 2013. a, b
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Lowery, K., Dutrieux, P., Holland, P., Hogg, A., Gourmelen, N., and Wallis, B.: Digital Elevation Models and Basal Melt Maps of Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf using CryoSat-2 Surface Elevation data, 2011-2023 (Version 1.0), NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre [data set], https://doi.org/10.5285/d093b7b9-f590-48dd-8206-74d239cdbf30, 2025. a
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Medley, B., Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Das, S. B., Steig, E. J., Conway, H., Gogineni, S., Lewis, C., Criscitiello, A. S., McConnell, J. R., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., and Leuschen, C.: Constraining the recent mass balance of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica, with airborne observations of snow accumulation, The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014. a
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Paolo, F. S., Gardner, A. S., Greene, C. A., Nilsson, J., Schodlok, M. P., Schlegel, N.-J., and Fricker, H. A.: Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023. a, b, c
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Short summary
Using CryoSat-2, we observe monthly changes in the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf surface and derive oceanic melt at its base. Basal channels, kilometres wide, are reflected in the ice surface and captured in our observations. We demonstrate that melt is concentrated on the western walls of channels, that channels play a role in grounding pinning points, and that PIG's main channel geometry is inherited upstream of the grounding line. These results highlight the importance of channels to ice shelf stability.
Using CryoSat-2, we observe monthly changes in the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf surface...
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