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The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Research article
 | 
14 May 2025
Research article |  | 14 May 2025

Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models

Kai-Uwe Eiselt and Rune Grand Graversen

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Alexandersson, H., Tuomenvirta, H., Smith, T., and Iden, K.: Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set, Clim. Res., 14, 71–73, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr014071, 2000. a
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In this study we optimise and train a random forest model to predict avalanche danger in northern Norway based on meteorological reanalysis data. The model performance is at the low end compared to recent similar studies. A hindcast of the frequency of avalanche days (based on the avalanche-danger level) is performed from 1970 to 2024, and a correlation is found with the Arctic Oscillation. This has potential implications for longer-term avalanche predictability.
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