Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
Research article
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28 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Nov 2024

The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction

Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-862', Douglas Brinkerhoff, 22 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Eliot Jager, 11 Jul 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-862', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Jun 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Eliot Jager, 11 Jul 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (23 Jul 2024) by Benjamin Smith
AR by Eliot Jager on behalf of the Authors (24 Jul 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (05 Sep 2024) by Benjamin Smith
AR by Eliot Jager on behalf of the Authors (19 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (02 Oct 2024) by Benjamin Smith
AR by Eliot Jager on behalf of the Authors (07 Oct 2024)
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Co-editor-in-chief
This work examines what determines the future of a glacier system in Greenland and represents an important advance in data-constrained forecasting for glacier systems. The manuscript investigates how sea-level rise predictions may be improved by leveraging a range of glaciological, climate, and modelling disciplines. Bringing together models and data, the authors demonstrate that human behaviour is the main determining factor of the glacier's future development.
Short summary
Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.