The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
28 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Nov 2024

The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction

Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot

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Editorial statement
This work examines what determines the future of a glacier system in Greenland and represents an important advance in data-constrained forecasting for glacier systems. The manuscript investigates how sea-level rise predictions may be improved by leveraging a range of glaciological, climate, and modelling disciplines. Bringing together models and data, the authors demonstrate that human behaviour is the main determining factor of the glacier's future development.
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Short summary
Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
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