Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
Research article
 | 
22 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 22 Sep 2023

Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes

Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills

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Cited articles

Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., Smedsrud, L. H., Skagseth, Ø., and Ingvaldsen, R. B.: Quantifying the Influence of Atlantic Heat on Barents Sea Ice Variability and Retreat, J. Climate, 25, 4736–4743, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00466.1, 2012. a
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., and Smedsrud, L. H.: The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss, J. Climate, 32, 3327–3341, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0750.1, 2019. a, b
Årthun, M., Onarheim, I. H., Dörr, J., and Eldevik, T.: The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825, 2021a. a, b
Årthun, M., Wills, R. C. J., Johnson, H. L., Chafik, L., and Langehaug, H. R.: Mechanisms of Decadal North Atlantic Climate Variability and Implications for the Recent Cold Anomaly, J. Climate, 34, 3421–3439, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0464.1, 2021b. a
Baxter, I., Ding, Q., Schweiger, A., L'Heureux, M., Baxter, S., Wang, T., Zhang, Q., Harnos, K., Markle, B., Topal, D., and Lu, J.: How Tropical Pacific Surface Cooling Contributed to Accelerated Sea Ice Melt from 2007 to 2012 as Ice Is Thinned by Anthropogenic Forcing, J. Climate, 32, 8583–8602, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0783.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.