Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 22 Sep 2023
| 22 Sep 2023
Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
David B. Bonan
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Marius Årthun
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Lea Svendsen
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Robert C. J. Wills
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability C. Little et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw3661
- On spatial and temporal changes of Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2022 M. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-025-2505-1
- Arctic Amplification in the Past, Present, and Future: A Review for the Challenge to the Integrative Understanding of its Mechanism M. YOSHIMORI et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-027
- Interannual connection of winter Barents-Kara sea-ice variability to ENSO regulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation J. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae47af
- Drivers of winter Arctic sea ice variability P. Vaideanu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01438-0
- Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice D. Bonan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
- Automatic detection of Arctic polynyas using hybrid supervised-unsupervised deep learning C. Heuzé & C. Wong https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6043-2025
- Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02705-3
- High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming G. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z
- Significance of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies to Arctic sea ice variability revealed by deep learning Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2
- Recent Multi‐Decadal Southern Ocean Surface Cooling Unlikely Caused by Southern Annular Mode Trends Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106142
- Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest Y. Kuo et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105389
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Impact of modulating surface heat flux through sea ice leads on Arctic sea ice in EC-Earth3 in different climates T. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2751-2025
- Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method Y. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107631
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability C. Little et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw3661
- On spatial and temporal changes of Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2022 M. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-025-2505-1
- Arctic Amplification in the Past, Present, and Future: A Review for the Challenge to the Integrative Understanding of its Mechanism M. YOSHIMORI et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2025-027
- Interannual connection of winter Barents-Kara sea-ice variability to ENSO regulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation J. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae47af
- Drivers of winter Arctic sea ice variability P. Vaideanu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01438-0
- Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice D. Bonan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024
- Automatic detection of Arctic polynyas using hybrid supervised-unsupervised deep learning C. Heuzé & C. Wong https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6043-2025
- Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02705-3
- High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming G. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z
- Significance of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies to Arctic sea ice variability revealed by deep learning Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2
- Recent Multi‐Decadal Southern Ocean Surface Cooling Unlikely Caused by Southern Annular Mode Trends Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106142
- Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest Y. Kuo et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105389
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Impact of modulating surface heat flux through sea ice leads on Arctic sea ice in EC-Earth3 in different climates T. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2751-2025
- Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method Y. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107631
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Jun 2026
Short summary
The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.
The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by...
