Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023
Research article
 | 
22 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 22 Sep 2023

Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes

Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills

Data sets

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

OSI-450Global Sea Ice Concentration Climate Data Record v2.0 - Multimission OSI SAF https://doi.org/10.15770/EUM_SAF_OSI_0008

OR430BSICOGBGlobal Sea Ice Concentration Interim Climate Data Record, Release 2 - DMSP OSI SAF https://doi.org/10.15770/EUM_SAF_OSI_NRT_2008

Model code and software

Some scripts to reproduce results from Dörr et al. (2023) Jakob S. Dörr https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7915287

Low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) Robert Jnglin Wills and Zhaoyi Shen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7940013

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Short summary
The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.