Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 05 Jun 2023
| 05 Jun 2023
Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity
Léo Viallon-Galinier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM,Centre d’Études de la Neige, Grenoble, France
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
École des Ponts, Champs-sur-Marne, France
Pascal Hagenmuller
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM,Centre d’Études de la Neige, Grenoble, France
Nicolas Eckert
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
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The paper focuses on the characterization of snow microstructure with X-ray microtomography, a technique that is progressively becoming the standard for snow characterization. In particular, it rigorously investigates how the image processing algorithms affect the subsequent microstructure characterization in terms of density and specific surface area. From this analysis, practical recommendations concerning the processing X-ray tomographic images of snow are provided.
P. Hagenmuller, G. Chambon, and M. Naaim
The Cryosphere, 9, 1969–1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1969-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1969-2015, 2015
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This paper deals with a mechanical model that exploits a granular description of the snow microstructure. Its originality is that the geometry of the snow grains and of the inter-granular bonding system are explicitly defined from microtomographic data. It enables to model large deformations controlled by grain-rearrangements, which is of particular interest to study the collapse of weak layers or the characterization of the snowpack with an indenter.
Related subject area
Discipline: Snow | Subject: Natural Hazards
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the soil–snow interface due to a loss of friction, which is suspected to be linked to interfacial water. The importance of the interfacial water was investigated with a spatio-temporal monitoring setup for soil and local snow on an avalanche-prone slope. Seven glide-snow avalanches were released on the monitoring grid (winter seasons 2021/22 to 2023/24) and provided insights into the source, quantity, and spatial distribution of interfacial water before avalanche release.
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Snow avalanches are a dangerous natural hazard. Backcountry recreationists and avalanche practitioners try to predict avalanche hazard based on the stability of snow cover. However, snow cover is variable in space, and snow stability observations can vary within several meters. We measure the snow stability several times on a small slope to create high-resolution maps of snow cover stability. These results help us to understand the snow variation for scientists and practitioners.
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The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust deposition can drastically change the snow color, turning mountain landscapes into sepia scenes. Dust increases the absorption of solar energy by the snow cover and thus modifies the snow evolution and potentially the avalanche risk. Here we show that dust can lead to increased or decreased snowpack stability depending on the snow and meteorological conditions after the deposition event. We also show that wet-snow avalanches happen earlier in the season due to the presence of dust.
Philipp Weißgraeber and Philipp L. Rosendahl
The Cryosphere, 17, 1475–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, 2023
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The work presents a mathematical model that calculates the behavior of layered snow covers in response to loadings. The information is necessary to predict the formation of snow slab avalanches. While sophisticated computer simulations may achieve the same goal, they can require weeks to run. By using mathematical simplifications commonly used by structural engineers, the present model can provide hazard assessments in milliseconds, even for snowpacks with many layers of different types of snow.
Stephanie Mayer, Alec van Herwijnen, Frank Techel, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
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Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
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Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Arnaud Caiserman, Roy C. Sidle, and Deo Raj Gurung
The Cryosphere, 16, 3295–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, 2022
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Snow avalanches cause considerable material and human damage in all mountain regions of the world. We present the first model to automatically inventory avalanche deposits at the scale of a catchment area – here the Amu Panj in Afghanistan – every year since 1990. This model called Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) is available online on the Google Engine. SAFE has been designed to be simple and universal to use. Nearly 810 000 avalanches were detected over the 32 years studied.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
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Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
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Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in snow-covered mountain regions. To mitigate the effects of avalanches, warnings are issued by public forecasting services. Presently, the five danger levels are described in qualitative terms. We aim to characterize the avalanche danger levels based on expert field observations of snow instability. Our findings contribute to an evidence-based description of danger levels and to improve consistency and accuracy of avalanche forecasts.
Pascal Haegeli, Bret Shandro, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 15, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, 2020
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Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
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This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
Short summary
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Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Yves Bühler, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Benjamin Zweifel, Mathias Zesiger, and Holger Heisig
The Cryosphere, 13, 3225–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, 2019
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We manually map 18 737 avalanche outlines based on SPOT6 optical satellite imagery acquired in January 2018. This is the most complete and accurate avalanche documentation of a large avalanche period covering a big part of the Swiss Alps. This unique dataset can be applied for the validation of other remote-sensing-based avalanche-mapping procedures and for updating avalanche databases to improve hazard maps.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
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Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
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Short summary
Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and...
