Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2541-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2541-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A method for solving heat transfer with phase change in ice or soil that allows for large time steps while guaranteeing energy conservation
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Stephan Gruber
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada
Riccardo Rigon
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
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Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
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Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Niccolò Tubini and Riccardo Rigon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 75–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-75-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-75-2022, 2022
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This paper presents WHETGEO and its 1D deployment: a new physically based model simulating the water and energy budgets in a soil column. WHETGEO-1D is intended to be the first building block of a new customisable land-surface model that is integrated with process-based hydrology. WHETGEO is developed as an open-source code and is fully integrated into the GEOframe/OMS3 system, allowing the use of the many ancillary tools it provides.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Alessandro Cicoira, Samuel Weber, Andreas Biri, Ben Buchli, Reynald Delaloye, Reto Da Forno, Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, Stephan Gruber, Tonio Gsell, Andreas Hasler, Roman Lim, Philippe Limpach, Raphael Mayoraz, Matthias Meyer, Jeannette Noetzli, Marcia Phillips, Eric Pointner, Hugo Raetzo, Cristian Scapozza, Tazio Strozzi, Lothar Thiele, Andreas Vieli, Daniel Vonder Mühll, Vanessa Wirz, and Jan Beutel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5061–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5061-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5061-2022, 2022
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This paper documents a monitoring network of 54 positions, located on different periglacial landforms in the Swiss Alps: rock glaciers, landslides, and steep rock walls. The data serve basic research but also decision-making and mitigation of natural hazards. It is the largest dataset of its kind, comprising over 209 000 daily positions and additional weather data.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
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Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
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Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Élise G. Devoie, Stephan Gruber, and Jeffrey M. McKenzie
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3365–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3365-2022, 2022
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Soil freezing characteristic curves (SFCCs) relate the temperature of a soil to its ice content. SFCCs are needed in all physically based numerical models representing freezing and thawing soils, and they affect the movement of water in the subsurface, biogeochemical processes, soil mechanics, and ecology. Over a century of SFCC data exist, showing high variability in SFCCs based on soil texture, water content, and other factors. This repository summarizes all available SFCC data and metadata.
Niccolò Tubini and Riccardo Rigon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 75–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-75-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-75-2022, 2022
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This paper presents WHETGEO and its 1D deployment: a new physically based model simulating the water and energy budgets in a soil column. WHETGEO-1D is intended to be the first building block of a new customisable land-surface model that is integrated with process-based hydrology. WHETGEO is developed as an open-source code and is fully integrated into the GEOframe/OMS3 system, allowing the use of the many ancillary tools it provides.
John Mohd Wani, Renoj J. Thayyen, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, and Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 15, 2273–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2273-2021, 2021
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We study the surface energy balance from a cold-arid permafrost environment in the Indian Himalayan region. The GEOtop model was used for the modelling of surface energy balance. Our results show that the variability in the turbulent heat fluxes is similar to that reported from the seasonally frozen ground and permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Further, the low relative humidity could be playing a critical role in the surface energy balance and the permafrost processes.
Rupesh Subedi, Steven V. Kokelj, and Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 14, 4341–4364, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4341-2020, 2020
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Permafrost beneath tundra near Lac de Gras (Northwest Territories, Canada) contains more ice and less organic carbon than shown in global compilations. Excess-ice content of 20–60 %, likely remnant Laurentide basal ice, is found in upland till. This study is based on 24 boreholes up to 10 m deep. Findings highlight geology and glacial legacy as determinants of a mosaic of permafrost characteristics with potential for thaw subsidence up to several metres in some locations.
Bin Cao, Stephan Gruber, Donghai Zheng, and Xin Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 2581–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2581-2020, 2020
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This study reports that ERA5-Land (ERA5L) soil temperature bias in permafrost regions correlates with the bias in air temperature and with maximum snow height. While global reanalyses are important drivers for permafrost study, ERA5L soil data are not well suited for directly informing permafrost research decision making due to their warm bias in winter. To address this, future soil temperature products in reanalyses will require permafrost-specific alterations to their land surface models.
Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 14, 1437–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1437-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1437-2020, 2020
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A simple method to record heave and subsidence of the land surface at specific field locations is described. Hourly observations from three sites, over two winters and one summer, are analyzed and discussed. The data are rich in features that point to the influence of freezing and thawing and of wetting and drying of the soil. This type of observation may offer new insight into the processes of heat and mass transfer in soil and help to monitor climate change impacts.
Bin Cao, Xiaojing Quan, Nicholas Brown, Emilie Stewart-Jones, and Stephan Gruber
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4661–4679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4661-2019, 2019
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GlobSim is a tool for simulating land-surface processes and phenomena at point locations globally, even where no site-specific meteorological observations exist. This is important because simulation can add insight to the analysis of observations or help in anticipating climate-change impacts and because site-specific simulation can help in model evaluation.
Joe R. Melton, Diana L. Verseghy, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Stephan Gruber
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4443–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019, 2019
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Soils in cold regions store large amounts of carbon that could be released to the atmosphere if the soils thaw. To best simulate these soils, we explored different configurations and parameterizations of the CLASS-CTEM model and compared to observations. The revised model with a deeper soil column, new soil depth dataset, and inclusion of moss simulated greatly improved annual thaw depths and ground temperatures. We estimate subgrid-scale features limit further improvements against observations.
Samuel Weber, Jan Beutel, Reto Da Forno, Alain Geiger, Stephan Gruber, Tonio Gsell, Andreas Hasler, Matthias Keller, Roman Lim, Philippe Limpach, Matthias Meyer, Igor Talzi, Lothar Thiele, Christian Tschudin, Andreas Vieli, Daniel Vonder Mühll, and Mustafa Yücel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1203–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1203-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1203-2019, 2019
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In this paper, we describe a unique 10-year or more data record obtained from in situ measurements in steep bedrock permafrost in an Alpine environment on the Matterhorn Hörnligrat, Zermatt, Switzerland, at 3500 m a.s.l. By documenting and sharing these data in this form, we contribute to facilitating future research based on them, e.g., in the area of analysis methodology, comparative studies, assessment of change in the environment, natural hazard warning and the development of process models.
Bin Cao, Stephan Gruber, and Tingjun Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2905–2923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2905-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2905-2017, 2017
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To derive the air temperature in mountain enviroments, we propose a new downscaling method with a spatially variable magnitude of surface effects. Our findings suggest that the difference between near-surface air temperature and upper-air temerpature is a good proxy of surface effects. It can be used to improve downscaling results, especially in valleys with strong surface effects and cold air pooling during winter.
Wuletawu Abera, Giuseppe Formetta, Luca Brocca, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3145–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, 2017
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This study documents a state-of-the-art estimation of the water budget (rainfall, evapotranspiration, discharge, and soil and groundwater storage) components for the Upper Blue Nile river. The budget uses various JGrass-NewAGE components, satellite data and all ground measurements available. The analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56 %, runoff is 33 %, and storage varies from minus 10 % to plus 17 % of the annual water budget.
Stephan Gruber, Renate Fleiner, Emilie Guegan, Prajjwal Panday, Marc-Olivier Schmid, Dorothea Stumm, Philippus Wester, Yinsheng Zhang, and Lin Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-81-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-81-2017, 2017
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We review what can be inferred about permafrost in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region. This is important because the area of permafrost exceeds that of glaciers in this region. Climate change will produce diverse permafrost-related impacts on vegetation, water quality, geohazards, and livelihoods. To mitigate this, a better understanding of high-elevation permafrost in subtropical latitudes as well as the pathways connecting environmental change and human livelihoods, is needed.
Riccardo Rigon, Marialaura Bancheri, and Timothy R. Green
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4929–4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4929-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4929-2016, 2016
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The goal of the paper is to analyze the theory of water age inside a catchment while accounting for multiple outflows. It tries to propose the material under a new perspective where it lines up concepts, cleans the notation, discusses some classical results, and offers some examples that help to relate the modern achievements to the theory of the IUH, clarifying assets of both of them. In doing all of this, it also produces various new results, and some regarding solute transport.
Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Olaf David, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4641–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4641-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4641-2016, 2016
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Ten algorithms for estimating DL and one for UL are integrated in a new model (LWRB) and connected to hydrological model JGrass-NewAge. The algorithms are tested against energy flux measurements available for 24 sites in North America to assess their reliability. We evaluated the performances of simplified models (SMs) of DL, as presented in literature formulations, and determined by automatic calibration the site-specific parameter sets for SMs of DL to improve model predictions.
V. Wirz, S. Gruber, R. S. Purves, J. Beutel, I. Gärtner-Roer, S. Gubler, and A. Vieli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 103–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-103-2016, 2016
M.-O. Schmid, P. Baral, S. Gruber, S. Shahi, T. Shrestha, D. Stumm, and P. Wester
The Cryosphere, 9, 2089–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2089-2015, 2015
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The extent and distribution of permafrost in the mountainous parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are largely unknown. This article provides a first-order assessment of the two available permafrost maps in the HKH region based on the mapping of rock glaciers in Google Earth. The Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions does not reproduce mapped conditions in the HKH region adequately, whereas the Global Permafrost Zonation Index does so with more success.
A. Hasler, M. Geertsema, V. Foord, S. Gruber, and J. Noetzli
The Cryosphere, 9, 1025–1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1025-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1025-2015, 2015
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In this paper we describe surface and thermal offsets derived from distributed measurements at seven field sites in British Columbia. Key findings are i) a small variation of the surface offsets between surface types; ii) small thermal offsets at all sites; iii) a clear influence of the micro-topography due to snow cover effects; iv) a north--south difference of the surface offset of 4°C in vertical bedrock and of 1.5–-3°C on open gentle slopes; v) only small macroclimatic differences.
J. Fiddes, S. Endrizzi, and S. Gruber
The Cryosphere, 9, 411–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-411-2015, 2015
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This paper demonstrates a new land surface modelling approach that uses globally available data sets to generate high-resolution simulation results of land surface processes. We successfully simulate a highly resolution-dependent variable, ground surface temperatures, over the entire Swiss Alps at high resolution. We use a large evaluation data set to test the model. We suggest that this scheme represents a useful step in application of numerical models over large areas in heterogeneous terrain.
S. Endrizzi, S. Gruber, M. Dall'Amico, and R. Rigon
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2831–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2831-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2831-2014, 2014
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GEOtop is a fine scale grid-based simulator that represents the heat and water budgets at and below the soil surface, reproduces the highly non-linear interactions between the water and energy balance during soil freezing and thawing and simulates snow cover. The core components of GEOtop 2.0. are described. Based on a synthetic simulation, it is shown that the interaction of processes represented in GEOtop 2.0. can result in phenomena that are relevant for applications involving frozen soils.
V. Wirz, J. Beutel, S. Gruber, S. Gubler, and R. S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2503–2520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2503-2014, 2014
G. Formetta, S. K. Kampf, O. David, and R. Rigon
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 725–736, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-725-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-725-2014, 2014
J. Fiddes and S. Gruber
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-387-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-387-2014, 2014
S. Gubler, S. Endrizzi, S. Gruber, and R. S. Purves
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1319-2013, 2013
G. Formetta, R. Rigon, J. L. Chávez, and O. David
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 915–928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-915-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-915-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Frozen ground | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Coupled thermo–geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring
Modeling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting-rates in frozen rock-clefts
Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model
Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
Simulating the current and future northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Evaluating simplifications of subsurface process representations for field-scale permafrost hydrology models
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change
Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway
Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions
Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model
Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications
The physical properties of coarse-fragment soils and their effects on permafrost dynamics: a case study on the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
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We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2349, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook the free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude higher than conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructures.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
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The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Jianting Zhao, Lin Zhao, Zhe Sun, Fujun Niu, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Erji Du, Chong Wang, Lingxiao Wang, Yongping Qiao, Jianzong Shi, Yuxin Zhang, Junqiang Gao, Yuanwei Wang, Yan Li, Wenjun Yu, Huayun Zhou, Zanpin Xing, Minxuan Xiao, Luhui Yin, and Shengfeng Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 4823–4846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, 2022
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Permafrost has been warming and thawing globally; this is especially true in boundary regions. We focus on the changes and variability in permafrost distribution and thermal dynamics in the northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) by applying a new permafrost model. Unlike previous papers on this topic, our findings highlight a slow, decaying process in the response of permafrost in the QTP to a warming climate, especially regarding areal extent.
Bo Gao and Ethan T. Coon
The Cryosphere, 16, 4141–4162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, 2022
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Representing water at constant density, neglecting cryosuction, and neglecting heat advection are three commonly applied but not validated simplifications in permafrost models to reduce computation complexity at field scale. We investigated this problem numerically by Advanced Terrestrial Simulator and found that neglecting cryosuction can cause significant bias (10%–60%), constant density primarily affects predicting water saturation, and ignoring heat advection has the least impact.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
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Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
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Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Shuhua Yi, Yujie He, Xinlei Guo, Jianjun Chen, Qingbai Wu, Yu Qin, and Yongjian Ding
The Cryosphere, 12, 3067–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, 2018
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Coarse-fragment soil on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has different thermal and hydrological properties to soils commonly used in modeling studies. We took soil samples and measured their physical properties in a laboratory, which were used in a model to simulate their effects on permafrost dynamics. Model errors were reduced using the measured properties, in which porosity played an dominant role.
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Short summary
We present a new method to compute temperature changes with melting and freezing – a fundamental challenge in cryosphere research – extremely efficiently and with guaranteed correctness of the energy balance for any time step size. This is a key feature since the integration time step can then be chosen according to the timescale of the processes to be studied, from seconds to days.
We present a new method to compute temperature changes with melting and freezing – a fundamental...