Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1857-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1857-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jun 2020
Research article |
| 11 Jun 2020
| 11 Jun 2020
The current state and 125 kyr history of permafrost on the Kara Sea shelf: modeling constraints
Anatoliy Gavrilov
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Vladimir Pavlov
Rosneft Oil Company, Moscow, Russia
Alexandr Fridenberg
Rosneft Oil Company, Moscow, Russia
Mikhail Boldyrev
Arctic Research Center LLC, Moscow, Russia
Vanda Khilimonyuk
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Elena Pizhankova
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Sergey Buldovich
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Natalia Kosevich
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Ali Alyautdinov
Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Mariia Ogienko
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Alexander Roslyakov
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Maria Cherbunina
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
Evgeniy Ospennikov
Faculty of Geology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow,
Russia
National Intellectual Resource Foundation, Moscow, Russia
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With climate change, Arctic hillslopes above ice-rich permafrost are vulnerable to enhanced carbon mobilization. In this work elevation change estimates generated from satellite observations reveal a substantial acceleration of carbon mobilization on the Taymyr Peninsula in Siberia between 2010 and 2021. The strong increase occurring in 2020 coincided with a severe Siberian heatwave and highlights that carbon mobilization can respond sharply and non-linearly to increasing temperatures.
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Recent research indicates the importance of lateral transport of dissolved carbon in the polygonal tundra, suggesting that the freeze-up period could further promote lateral carbon transport. We conducted subsurface tracer simulations on high-, flat-, and low-centered polygons to test the importance of the freeze–thaw cycle and freeze-up time for tracer mobility. Our findings illustrate the impact of hydraulic and thermal gradients on tracer mobility, as well as of the freeze-up time.
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In the present study, we analysed geochemical and sedimentological properties of relict permafrost and ground ice exposed at the Sobo-Sise Yedoma cliff in the eastern Lena delta in NE Siberia. We obtained insight into permafrost aggradation and degradation over the last approximately 52 000 years and the climatic and morphodynamic controls on regional-scale permafrost dynamics of the central Laptev Sea coastal region.
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Improved subsurface parameterization and benchmarking data are needed to reduce current uncertainty in predicting permafrost response to a warming climate. We developed a subsurface parameter estimation framework that can be used to estimate soil properties where subsurface data are available. We utilize diverse geophysical datasets such as electrical resistance data, soil moisture data, and soil temperature data to recover soil porosity and soil thermal conductivity.
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Knowledge about permafrost extent is required with respect to climate change. We used borehole temperature records from across the Arctic for the assessment of surface status information (frozen or unfrozen) derived from space-borne microwave sensors for permafrost extent mapping. The comparison to mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the coldest sensor depth revealed that not only extent but also temperature can be obtained from C-band-derived surface state with a residual error of 2.22 °C.
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Short summary
The geocryological study of the Arctic shelf remains insufficient for economic activity. The article presents a study of its evolution by methods of math modeling of heat transfer in rocks. As a result, a model of the evolution and current state of the cryolithozone of the Kara shelf was created based on ideas about the history of its geocryological development over the past 125 kyr. The modeling results are correlated to the available field data and are presented as a geocryological map.
The geocryological study of the Arctic shelf remains insufficient for economic activity. The...
