Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-453-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-453-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Feb 2018
Research article |
| 06 Feb 2018
| 06 Feb 2018
Tidal influences on a future evolution of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica
Rachael D. Mueller
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth & Space Research, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA
Tore Hattermann
Akvaplan-niva, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Susan L. Howard
Earth & Space Research, Seattle, WA 98121, USA
Laurie Padman
Earth & Space Research, Corvallis, OR 97333, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Indrani Das, Jowan Barnes, James Smith, Renata Constantino, Sidney Hemming, and Laurie Padman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1564, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) on the Antarctic Peninsula is currently thinning and the glaciers feeding it are accelerating. Geologic evidence indicates that GVIIS had disintegrated several thousand years ago due to ocean and atmosphere warming. Here, we use remote sensing and numerical modeling to show that strain thinning reduces buttressing of grounded ice, creating a positive feedback of accelerated ice inflow to the southern GVIIS, likely making it more vulnerable than the northern sector.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Qiang Sun, Christopher M. Little, Alice M. Barthel, and Laurie Padman
Ocean Sci., 17, 131–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-131-2021, 2021
Andrey Pnyushkov, Igor V. Polyakov, Laurie Padman, and An T. Nguyen
Ocean Sci., 14, 1329–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1329-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1329-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 4 years of velocity and hydrography records from moored profilers over the Laptev Sea slope reveal multiple events of eddies passing through the mooring site. These events suggest that the advection of mesoscale eddies is an important component of ocean dynamics in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. Increased vertical shear of current velocities found within eddies produces enhanced diapycnal mixing, suggesting their importance for the redistribution of heat in the Arctic Ocean.
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Katrin J. Meissner, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Matthew H. England, Ralph Timmermann, Hartmut H. Hellmer, Tore Hattermann, and Jens B. Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1257–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MetROMS and FESOM are two ocean/sea-ice models which resolve Antarctic ice-shelf cavities and consider thermodynamics at the ice-shelf base. We simulate the period 1992–2016 with both models, and with two options for resolution in FESOM, and compare output from the three simulations. Ice-shelf melt rates, sub-ice-shelf circulation, continental shelf water masses, and sea-ice processes are compared and evaluated against available observations.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Related subject area
Antarctic
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200
A reconstruction of the ice thickness of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70° S
Inferring the seasonality of sea ice floes in the Weddell Sea using ICESat-2
Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica
Age–depth distribution in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and Antarctic-wide comparisons of internal reflection horizons
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance
Surface processes and drivers of the snow water stable isotopic composition at Dome C, East Antarctica – a multi-dataset and modelling analysis
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Dual-frequency radar observations of snowmelt processes on Antarctic perennial sea ice by CFOSCAT and ASCAT
Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss
Using deep learning and multi-source remote sensing images to map landlocked lakes in Antarctica
Satellite data reveal details of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
How do extreme ENSO events affect Antarctic surface mass balance?
The impact of regional-scale upper mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Contribution of blowing-snow sublimation to the surface mass balance of Antarctica
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Quantifying the influence of snow over sea ice morphology on L-band passive microwave satellite observations in the Southern Ocean
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
Employing automated electrical resistivity tomography for detecting short- and long-term changes in permafrost and active-layer dynamics in the maritime Antarctic
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A decade (2008–2017) of water stable isotope composition of precipitation at Concordia Station, East Antarctica
The role of atmospheric conditions in the Antarctic sea ice extent summer minima
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Review article: Feature tracing in radio-echo sounding products of terrestrial ice sheets and planetary bodies
Current reversal leads to regime change in Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the twenty-first century
A facet based numerical model to retrieve ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Viscoelastic mechanics of tidally induced lake drainage in the Amery grounding zone
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Kaian Shahateet, Johannes J. Fürst, Francisco Navarro, Thorsten Seehaus, Daniel Farinotti, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 1577–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the present work, we provide a new ice thickness reconstruction of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S using inversion modeling. This model consists of two steps: the first uses basic assumptions of the rheology of the glacier, and the second uses mass conservation to improve the reconstruction where the assumptions made previously are expected to fail. Validation with independent data showed that our reconstruction improved compared to other reconstructions that are available.
Mukund Gupta, Heather Regan, Younghyun Koo, Sean Minhui Tashi Chua, Xueke Li, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 19, 1241–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The sea ice cover is composed of floes, whose shapes set the material properties of the pack. Here, we use a satellite product (ICESat-2) to investigate these floe shapes within the Weddell Sea in Antarctica. We find that floes tend to become smaller during the melt season, while their thickness distribution exhibits different behavior between the western and southern regions of the pack. These metrics will help calibrate models and improve our understanding of sea ice physics across scales.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
The Cryosphere, 19, 1153–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents internal reflection horizons (IRHs) over an area of 450 000 km² from western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, spanning 4.8–91 ka. Using radar and ice core data, nine IRHs were dated and correlated with volcanic events. The data enhance our understanding of the ice sheet's age–depth architecture, accumulation, and dynamics. The findings inform ice flow models and contribute to Antarctic-wide comparisons of IRHs, supporting efforts toward a 3D age–depth ice sheet model.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vanderford Glacier is the fastest-retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice-shelf basal melting, in which warm ocean waters melt ice close to the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 19, 919–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.
Ella Gilbert, Denis Pishniak, José Abraham Torres, Andrew Orr, Michelle Maclennan, Nander Wever, and Kristiina Verro
The Cryosphere, 19, 597–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use three sophisticated climate models to examine extreme precipitation in a critical region of West Antarctica. We found that rainfall probably occurred during the two cases we examined and that it was generated by the interaction of air with steep topography. Our results show that kilometre-scale models are useful tools for exploring extreme precipitation in this region and that more observations of rainfall are needed.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
The Cryosphere, 19, 303–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples, and ground-penetrating radar) to assess the suitability for subglacial drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak (74.86°S, 99.77°W).
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 19, 173–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Rui Xu, Chaofang Zhao, Stefanie Arndt, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 18, 5769–5788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5769-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The onset of snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice is an important indicator of sea ice change. In this study, we used two radar scatterometers to detect the onset of snowmelt on perennial Antarctic sea ice. Results show that since 2007, snowmelt onset has demonstrated strong interannual and regional variabilities. We also found that the difference in snowmelt onsets between the two scatterometers is closely related to snow metamorphism.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Anyao Jiang, Xin Meng, Yan Huang, and Guitao Shi
The Cryosphere, 18, 5347–5364, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landlocked lakes are crucial to the Antarctic ecosystem and sensitive to climate change. Limited research on their distribution prompted us to develop an automated detection process using deep learning and multi-source satellite imagery. This allowed us to accurately determine the landlocked lake open water (LLOW) area in Antarctica, generating high-resolution time series data. We find that the changes in positive and negative degree days predominantly drive variations in the LLOW area.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GNSS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GNSS measurements. This can improve ice-sheet predictions.
Jessica M. A. Macha, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Felicity S. Mccormack, Benjamin J. Henley, Helen V. McGregor, Christiaan T. van Dalum, and Ariaan Purich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3425, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have global impacts but their Antarctic impacts are poorly understood. Examining Antarctic snow accumulation impacts of past observed extreme ENSO events, we show that accumulation changes differ between events & are unsignificant during most events. Remarkable changes occur during 2015/16 & in Enderby Land during all extreme El Niños. Historical data limits conclusions but future greater extremes could cause Antarctic accumulation changes.
Erica Margaret Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2957, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of incorporating regional-scale lateral variability (~50–100 km) in upper mantle structure into models of Earth deformation and sea level change associated with ice mass changes in West Antarctica. Regional-scale variability in upper mantle structure is found to impact relative sea level and crustal rate predictions for modern (last ~25–125 years) and projected (next ~300 years) ice mass changes, especially in coastal regions that undergo rapid ice mass loss.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Srinidhi Gadde and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 18, 4933–4953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blowing-snow sublimation is the major loss term in the mass balance of Antarctica. In this study we update the blowing-snow representation in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). With the updates, results compare well with observations from East Antarctica. Also, the continent-wide variation of blowing snow compares well with satellite observations. Hence, the updates provide a clear step forward in producing a physically sound and reliable estimate of the mass balance of Antarctica.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Shiming Xu, Weixin Zhu, Sahra Kacimi, Stefanie Arndt, and Zifan Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4399–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow over Antarctic sea ice, influenced by highly variable meteorological conditions and heavy snowfall, has a complex stratigraphy and profound impact on the microwave signature. We employ advanced radiation transfer models to analyse the effects of complex snow properties on brightness temperatures over the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Great potential lies in the understanding of snow processes and the application to satellite retrievals.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
Mohammad Farzamian, Teddi Herring, Gonçalo Vieira, Miguel Angel de Pablo, Borhan Yaghoobi Tabar, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4197–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An automated electrical resistivity tomography (A-ERT) system was developed and deployed in Antarctica to monitor permafrost and active-layer dynamics. The A-ERT, coupled with an efficient processing workflow, demonstrated its capability to monitor real-time thaw depth progression, detect seasonal and surficial freezing–thawing events, and assess permafrost stability. Our study showcased the potential of A-ERT to contribute to global permafrost monitoring networks.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Hameed Moqadam and Olaf Eisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1674, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This is an overview on methodologies that have been applied to map the internal reflection horizons, or ice-layer boundaries, of ice sheets on earth and other planets. We briefly explain radar applications in glaciology and the methods which have been used and published. There are summaries of the published work of the last two decades. Finally, we conclude by introducing the gaps and opportunities for further advancement in this field, and present possible future directions.
Jing Jin, Antony J. Payne, and Christopher Y. S. Bull
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Amery Ice Shelf cavity is one of the largest cold cavities filled by relatively cold Dense Shelf Water. However, in this study, we show that warm intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water flushes the Amery cavity, which changes it from a cold cavity to a warm cavity and leads to an abrupt increase in basal melt rate in the 2060s. The shift to the warm cavity is attributed to a freshening-driven current reversal in front of the ice shelf.
Jérémie Aublanc, François Boy, Franck Borde, and Pierre Féménias
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed an innovative algorithm to derive the ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry measurements. The processing chain is named the “Altimeter data Modelling and Processing for Land Ice” (AMPLI). The performance improvement is substantial compared to the official data generated by the ESA ground segment. With AMPLI, we show that Sentinel-3 is able to estimate the Surface Elevation Change of the Antarctic ice sheet with a high level of agreement to ICESat-2.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
David B. Bonan, Jakob Dörr, Robert C. J. Wills, Andrew F. Thompson, and Marius Årthun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of gradual expansion and a period of sudden decline. We use a novel statistical method to identify sources of variability in observed Antarctic sea ice changes. We find that the gradual increase in sea ice is likely related to large-scale temperature trends, and periods of abrupt sea ice decline are related to specific flavors of equatorial tropical variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Hanwen Zhang, Richard F. Katz, and Laura A. Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In Antarctica, supraglacial lakes are formed by melting near the grounding lines, where grounded ice sheets transition to floating ice shelves. We model the tidal flexure near the grounding lines and analyse its contribution to lake drainage through hydrofracturing. We show that tidal flexure and lake water pressure together control lake drainage in the Amery Ice Shelf, which indicates the importance of tidal stress to processes associated with hydrofracturing near the grounding lines.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
Cited articles
Beckmann, A. and Haidvogel, D. B.: Numerical simulation of flow around a tall
isolated seamount. Part 1: Problem formulation and model accuracy, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 23, 1736–1753, 1993.
Chapman, D.: Numerical treatment of cross-shelf open boundaries in a
barotropic coastal ocean model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 384–391, 1985.
Darelius, E., Fer, I., and Nicholls, K. W.: Observed vulnerability of
Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf to wind-driven inflow of warm deep water, Nat. Commun., 7, 12300, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12300, 2016.
Depoorter, M., Bamber, J., Griggs, J., Lenaerts, J., Ligtenberg, S., van
den Broeke, M., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of
Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567,
2013.
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M., and Smith Jr., W. O.: Influence of sea ice
cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical
circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11013,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004036, 2007.
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M., and Smith Jr., W. O.: A model study of
Circumpolar Deep Water on the West Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea
continental shelves, Deep-Sea Res. II., 58, 1508–1523,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.11.013, 2011.
Dupont, T. K. and Alley, R. B.:
Assessment of the importance of ice-shelf buttressing to ice-sheet flow,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022024, 2005.
Flather, R.: A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf,
Memoires de la Societé Royale des Sciences de Liége, 6, 141–164,
1976.
Foldvik, A. and Kvinge, T.: Conditional instability of sea water at the
freezing point, Deep Sea Res., 21, 169–174, 1974.
Foldvik, A., Gammelsrød, T., and Tørresen, T.: Circulation and water
masses on the Southern Weddell Sea Shelf, in: Oceanology of the Antarctic
Continental Shelf, Antarct. Res. Ser., vol. 43, edited by: Jacobs, S. S.,
5–20, AGU, Washington, DC, 1985.
Foldvik, A., Gammelsrød, T., Nygaard, E., and Østerhus, S.: Current
meter measurements near Ronne Ice Shelf, Weddell Sea: Implications for
circulation and melting underneath the Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, J.
Geophys. Res., 106, 4463–4477, 2001.
Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Zwinger, T., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., and Le Meur,
E.: Coupling of ice shelf melting and buttressing is a key process in
ice-sheet dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14501,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043334, 2010.
Gammelsrød, T., Foldvik, A., Nøst, O. A., Foldvik, Ø.,
Anderson, L. G, Fogelqvist, E., Olsson, K., Tanhua, T. , Jones, E. P., and Østerhus, S.: Distribution of water masses on the continental
shelf in the southern Weddell Sea, in: Polar oceans and their role in shaping
the global environment, edited by: Johannessen, M., Muench, R. D., and
Overland, J. E., 159–175, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1994.
Gerdes, R., Determann, J., and Grosfeld, K.: Ocean circulation beneath
Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf from three-dimensional model results, J. Geophys.
Res., 104, 15827–15842, 1999.
Groh, A. and Horwath, M.: The method of tailored sensitivity kernels for
GRACE mass change estimates, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 18, EGU2016–12065, 2016.
Haney, R. L.: On the pressure-gradient force over steep topography in sigma
coordinate ocean models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 21, 610–619, 1991.
Harig, C. and Simons, F. J.: Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss
continues to outpace East Antarctic gains, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 415,
134–141, 2015.
Hellmer, H. H.: Impact of antarctic ice shelf basal melting on sea ice and
deep ocean properties, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L10307,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019506, 2004.
Hellmer, H. H. and Olbers, D. J.: A two-dimensional model for the
thermohaline circulation under an ice shelf, Antarct. Sci., 1, 325–336,
1989.
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J., and Rae, J.:
Twentyfirst–century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a
redirected coastal current, Nature, 485, 225–228, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11064,
2012.
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., and Hattermann, T.: The fate of
the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf in a warming climate, J. Climate,
30, 4337–4350,
2017.
Holland, D. M. and Jenkins, A.: Modeling thermodynamic ice–ocean
interactions at the base of an ice shelf, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29,
1787–1800, 1999.
Holland, P. R., Feltham, D. L., and Jenkins, A.: Ice Shelf Water plume flow
beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C05044,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003915, 2007.
Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Holland, D. M.: The Response of Ice Shelf Basal
Melting to Variations in Ocean Temperature, J. Climate, 21, 2558–2572,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1909.1, 2008.
Jacobs, S. S., Hellmer, H. H., Doake, C. S. M., Jenkins, A., and Frolich, R.
M.: Melting of ice shelves and the mass balance of Antarctica, J. Glaciol.,
38, 375–387, 1992.
Jacobs, S., Giulivi, C., Dutrieux, P., Rignot, E., Nitsche, F., and Mouginot,
J.: Getz Ice Shelf melting response to changes in ocean forcing, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 4152–4168, 2013.
Jenkins, A.: A one-dimensional model of ice shelf–ocean interaction, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 96, 20671–20677, 1991.
Jenkins, A. and Jacobs, S.: Circulation and melting beneath George VI Ice
Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C04013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004449,
2008.
Jenkins, A., Hellmer, H. H., and Holland, D. M.: The role of meltwater
advection in the formulation of conservative boundary conditions at an
ice-ocean interface, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 285–296, 2001.
Jenkins, A., Nicholls, K. W., and Corr, H. F. J.: Observations and
parameterization of ablation at the base of Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J.
Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 2298–2312, 2010a.
Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S. S., McPhail, S. D., Perrett, J. R., Webb,
A. T., and White, D.: Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica
and implications for its retreat, Nat. Geosci., 3, 468–472,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo890, 2010b.
Joughin, I. and Padman, L.: Melting and freezing beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice
Shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1477,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016941, 2003.
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine ice sheet collapse
potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier basin, West Antarctica,
Science, 344, 735–738, 2014.
Khazendar, A., Rignot, E., Schroeder, D. M., Seroussi, H., Schodlok, M. P.,
Scheuchl, B., Mouginot, J., Sutterley, T. C., and Velicogna, I.: Rapid
submarine ice melting in the grounding zones of ice shelves in West
Antarctica, Nat. Commun., 7, 13243, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13243,
2016.
Kulessa, B., Jansen, D., Luckman, A. J., King, E., and Sammonds, P. R.: Marine ice
regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf, Nat. Commun.,
5, 3707, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4707, 2014.
Li, R., Xiao, H., Liu, S., and Tong, X.: A Systematic Study of the Fracturing
of Ronne–Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using Multisource Satellite Data
from 2001 to 2016, The Cryosphere Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-178, in review, 2017.
MacAyeal, D. R: Thermohaline circulation below the Ross Ice Shelf: A
consequence of tidally induced vertical mixing and basal melting, J. Geophys.
Res., 89, 597–606, 1984.
Makinson, K. and Nicholls, K.: Modeling Tidal currents beneath Filchner-Ronne
Ice Shelf and on the adjacent continental shelf: Their effect on mixing and
transport, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 13449–13465, 1999.
Makinson, K., Schröder, M., and Østerhus, S.: Effect of critical
latitude and seasonal stratication on tidal current profiles along Ronne Ice
Front, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C03022,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003062, 2006.
Makinson, K., Holland, P., Jenkins, A., Nicholls, K. W., and Holland, D. M.:
Influence of tides on melting and freezing beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf,
Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046462, 2011.
Marchesiello, P., McWilliams, J. C., and Shchepetkin, A.: Open boundary
conditions for long–term integration of regional oceanic models, Ocean Model., 3, 1–20, 2001.
Martin, M. A., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: Comparing ice discharge
through West Antarctic Gateways: Weddell vs. Amundsen Sea warming, The
Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, 2015.
McGrath, D., Steffen, K., Holland, P. R., Scambos, T., Rajaram, H., Abdalati,
W., and Rignot, E.: The structure and effect of suture zones in the Larsen C
Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 588–602,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JF002935, 2014.
McPhee, M. G., Morison, J. H., and Nilsen, F.: Revisiting heat and salt
exchange at the ice-ocean interface: Ocean flux and modeling considerations,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 113, C06014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004383, 2008.
Mengel, M., Feldmann, J., and Levermann, A.: Linear sea–level response to
abrupt ocean warming of major West Antarctic ice basin, Nat. Clim. Change, 6,
71–74, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2808, 2016.
Moholdt, G., Padman, L., and Fricker, A.: Basal mass budget of Ross and
Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, Antarctica, derived from Lagrangian analysis of
ICESat altimetry, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 2361–2380, 2014.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., and Scheuchl, B.: Sustained increase in ice
discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to
2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1576–1584, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059069, 2014.
Mueller, R. D.: The effects of thermodynamic parameterizations, ice shelf
geometry, and tides on modeled basal melting of Weddell Sea ice shelves,
doctoral dissertation, Oregon State University, available at:
http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/3x816s04t
(last access: 30 January 2018), 2014.
Mueller, R. D., Padman, L., Dinniman, M. S., Erofeeva, S. Y., Fricker, H. A.,
and King, M. A.: Impact of tide–topography interactions on basal melting of
Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C05005,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007263, 2012.
Nicholls, K. W. and Østerhus, S.: Interannual variability and ventilation
timescales in the ocean cavity beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica,
J. Geophys. Res., 109, C04014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC002149, 2004.
Nicholls, K. W., Østerhus, S., Makinson, K., and Johnson, M. R.:
Oceanographic conditions south of Berkner Island, beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice
Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 106, 11481–11492, 2001.
Nicholls, K. W., Padman, L., Schröder, M., Woodgate, R. A., Jenkins, A.,
and Østerhus, S.: Water Mass Modification Over the Continental Shelf North
of Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 108, 3260,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001713, 2003.
Nicholls, K. W., Østerhus, S., Makinson, K., and Gammelsrød, T., and
Fahrbach, E.: Ice-ocean processes over the continental shelf of the southern
Weddell Sea, Antarctica: A review, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG3003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000250, 2009.
Padman, L., Fricker, H. A., Coleman, R., Howard, S., and Erofeeva, S.: A new
tidal model for the Antarctic ice shelves and seas, J. Glaciol., 34,
247–254, 2002.
Padman, L., Costa, D. P., Dinniman, M. S., Fricker, H. A., Goebel, M. E.,
Huckstadt, L. A., Humbert, A., Joughin, I., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg,
S. R. M., Scambos, T., and Van den Broeke, M. R.: Oceanic controls on mass
balance of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C01010,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007301, 2012.
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice
shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, 2015.
Padman, L., Siegfried, M. R., and Fricker, H. A.: Ocean Tide Influences on
the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, Rev. Geophys., 56,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000546, 2018.
Pritchard, H. D., Arthern, R. J., Vaughan, D. G., and Edwards, L. A.:
Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets, Nature, 461, 971–975, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08471, 2009.
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van
den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal
melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012.
Raymond, W. H. and Kuo, H. L.: A radiation boundary condition for
multi-dimensional flows, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 110, 535–551,
1984.
Rignot, E. and Jacobs, S. S.: Rapid bottom melting widespread near Antarctic
Ice Sheet grounding lines, Science, 296, 2020–2023,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1070942, 2002.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-shelf melting around
Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798, 2013.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.:
Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and
Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
3502–3509, 2014.
Robertson, R., Padman, L., and Egbert, G.: Tides in the Weddell Sea, in:
Oceanology of the Antarctic Continental Shelf, Antarct. Res. Ser., vol. 75,
edited by: Jacobs, S. and Weiss, R., 341–369, AGU, Washington, DC, 1998.
Rosier, S. H. R., Green, J. A. M., Scourse, J. D., and Winkelmann, R.:
Modeling Antarctic tides in response to ice shelf thinning and retreat, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 87–97, 2014.
Ross, N., Bingham, R. G., Corr, H. F., Ferraccioli, F., Jordan, T. A., Le
Brocq, A., Rippin, D. M., Young, D., Blankenship, D. D., and Siegert, M. J.:
Steep reverse bed slope at the grounding line of the Weddell Sea sector in
West Antarctica, Nat. Geosci., 5, 393–396, 2012.
Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A., and Skvarca, P.: Glacier
acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment,
Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020670, 2004.
Schlosser, P., Bayer, R., Foldvik, A., Gammelsrød, T., Rohardt, G., and
Münnich, K. O.: Oxygen 18 and Helium as tracers of ice shelf water and
water/ice interactions in the Weddell Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 95,
3253–3263, 1990.
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal
warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231, 2014.
Schodlok, M. P., Menemenlis, D., Rignot, E., and Studinger, M.: Sensitivity
of the ice-shelf/ocean system to the sub-ice-shelf cavity shape measured by
NASA IceBridge in Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol.,
53, 156–162, 2012.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: A method for computing horizontal
pressure–gradient force in an oceanic model with a nonaligned vertical
coordinate, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 108, 3090, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001047,
2003.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: Correction and commentary for
“Ocean forecasting in terrain–following coordinates: Formulation and skill
assessment of the regional ocean modeling system” by Haidvogel et al., J.
Comp. Phys., 227, 3595–3624, J. Comp. Phys., 228, 8985–9000,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2009.09.002, 2009.
Sutterley, T. C., Velicogna, I., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Flament, T., van
den Broeke, M. R., van Wessem, J. M., and Reijmer, C. H.: Mass loss of the
Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica from four independent techniques,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8421–8428, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061940, 2014.
Timmermann, R. and Goeller, S.: Response to Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity
warming in a coupled ocean–ice sheet model – Part 1: The ocean perspective,
Ocean Sci., 13, 765–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-765-2017, 2017.
Timmermann, R. and Hellmer, H.: Southern Ocean warming and increased ice
shelf basal melting in the twenty–first and twenty–second centuries based
on coupled ice-ocean finite–element modelling, Ocean Dynam., 63, 1011–1026,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0642-0, 2013.
Timmermann, R., Le Brocq, A., Deen, T., Domack, E., Dutrieux, P.,
Galton-Fenzi, B., Hellmer, H., Humbert, A., Jansen, D., Jenkins, A.,
Lambrecht, A., Makinson, K., Niederjasper, F., Nitsche, F., Nøst, O. A.,
Smedsrud, L. H., and Smith, W. H. F.: A consistent data set of Antarctic ice
sheet topography, cavity geometry, and global bathymetry, Earth Syst. Sci.
Data, 2, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2-261-2010, 2010.
Timmermann, R., Wang, Q., and Hellmer, H. H.: Ice-shelf basal melting in a
global finite–element sea-ice/ice-shelf/ocean model, Ann. Glaciol., 53,
303–314, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A156, 2012.
Walker, R. T., Dupont, T. K., Parizek, B. R., and Alley, R. B.: Effects of
basal–melting distribution on the retreat of ice-shelf grounding lines,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 350, L17503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034947, 2008.
Wright, A. P., Le Brocq, A. M., Cornford, S. L., Bingham, R. G., Corr, H. F.
J., Ferraccioli, F., Jordan, T. A., Payne, A. J., Rippin, D. M., Ross, N.,
and Siegert, M. J.: Sensitivity of the Weddell Sea sector ice streams to
sub-shelf melting and surface accumulation, The Cryosphere, 8, 2119–2134,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2119-2014, 2014.
Short summary
There is evidence that climate change in the Weddell Sea will cause warmer water to flow toward the icy continent and into the ocean cavity circulating beneath a thick (~ 1000 m) ice sheet extension that floats over the Weddell Sea, called the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS). This paper addresses the impact of this potential warming on the melting of FRIS. It evaluates the previously unexplored feedbacks between ice melting, changes in cavity geometry, tides, and circulation.
There is evidence that climate change in the Weddell Sea will cause warmer water to flow toward...
