Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6221-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6221-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 02 Nov 2026
| 02 Nov 2026
Investigating the transition in ice dynamics from a land- to lake-terminating glacier using a simple glacier dynamics model
Jaime Otero
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
ETSI de Telecomunicación, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Daniel Goldberg
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Peter Nienow
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Yefan Wang
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3779, 2026
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Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise. Using multi-century, high-resolution coupled ice–ocean simulations of the region, we show that 21st century predictions depend strongly on how ice-sheet models are initialized, especially for Thwaites Glacier. By the 22nd century, however, ocean warming becomes the dominant driver, leading to much faster ice loss under high-emissions scenarios, highlighting the importance of improving coupled climate–ice models.
Laure Moinat, Florian Franziskakis, Christian Vérard, Daniel Nathan Goldberg, and Maura Brunetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4357–4384, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4357-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4357-2026, 2026
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We describe a new tool, BIG-MITgcm, that consistently reproduces the global-scale dynamics of the ocean, atmosphere, vegetation and ice on multimillennial timescales at a low computational cost. Evaluated against observations and state-of-the-art Earth system models, it includes asynchronous coupling to models of vegetation, hydrology and a newly developed global-scale ice sheet. Using arbitrary continental configurations, it enables studies of past and present climates on Earth or exoplanets.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-788, 2026
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Brad Reed, Jan De Rydt, Kaitlin A. Naughten, and Daniel N. Goldberg
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Melting beneath Antarctic ice shelves drives ice loss and raises sea levels, but the computer models we use to predict this are poorly constrained. We improved how these models are set up by using multiple real-world observations of ice thinning and glacier speed, rather than melt rates alone. This better captures how the ice and ocean interact. Our projections show this approach adds 14 mm of extra sea-level rise by 2100, which is more than switching to a warmer climate scenario alone.
Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Daniel N. Goldberg, and Philipp Gregor
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1301–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026, 2026
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The Cryosphere, 20, 777–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-777-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-777-2026, 2026
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Calving is where ice breaks off the front of glaciers. It has not been included widely in modelling as it is difficult to represent. We use our ice flow model to investigate the effects of calving floating ice shelves in West Antarctica. More calving leads to more ice loss and greater sea level rise, with local differences due to the shape of the bedrock. We find that ocean forcing and calving should be considered equally when trying to improve how models represent the real world.
Hamish D. Pritchard, Edward C. King, David J. Goodger, Douglas Boyle, Daniel N. Goldberg, Beatriz Recinos, Andrew Orr, and Dhananjay Regmi
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We present a new and uniquely extensive dataset of glacier thickness from the Khumbu Himal around Mount Everest that stretches for 119 km, doubling the extent of thickness measurements in High Mountain Asia. Such measurements are key inputs for models that estimate how much ice is stored on the whole mountain range scale and for models that predict how this ice reserve will change in future, and what impact this will have on water supply for the large populations living downstream.
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The Cryosphere, 19, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, 2025
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We report flow speed variations near the front of a tidewater glacier in Greenland. Ice flow near the glacier front is crucial for the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, but in situ data are hard to obtain. Our unique in situ GPS data revealed fine details of short-term speed variations associated with melting, ocean tides, and rain. The results are important for understanding the response of tidewater glaciers to changing environments, such as warming, more frequent rain, and ice thinning.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
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A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Beatriz Recinos, Daniel Goldberg, James R. Maddison, and Joe Todd
The Cryosphere, 17, 4241–4266, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models generate forecasts of ice sheet mass loss, a significant contributor to sea level rise; thus, capturing the complete range of possible projections of mass loss is of critical societal importance. Here we add to data assimilation techniques commonly used in ice sheet modelling (a Bayesian inference approach) and fully characterize calibration uncertainty. We successfully propagate this type of error onto sea level rise projections of three ice streams in West Antarctica.
Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, and Daniel Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3867–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, 2022
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Hills and valleys hidden under the ice of Thwaites Glacier have an impact on ice flow and future ice loss, but there are not many three-dimensional observations of their location or size. We apply a mathematical theory to new high-resolution observations of the ice surface to predict the bed topography beneath the ice. There is a good correlation with ice-penetrating radar observations. The method may be useful in areas with few direct observations or as a further constraint for other methods.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
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Short summary
As climate change creates new lakes at the front of retreating glaciers, these ice bodies often accelerate and lose mass more quickly. We used a computer model to study this process at an Icelandic glacier. Our results show that thinning ice is the main driver for recent acceleration, with 37 % of the total ice loss resulting from the presence of the lake. These findings imply that as lakes grow globally, glaciers could vanish more rapidly than predicted, enhancing the rate of sea level rise.
As climate change creates new lakes at the front of retreating glaciers, these ice bodies often...
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