Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5867-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Subseasonal forecast improvements from sea ice concentration data assimilation in the Antarctic
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- Final revised paper (published on 13 Oct 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Jul 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2807', Kenneth Hughes, 06 Aug 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yong-Fei Zhang, 03 Nov 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2807', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Sep 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Yong-Fei Zhang, 03 Nov 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Jan 2026) by Petra Heil
AR by Yong-Fei Zhang on behalf of the Authors (04 Feb 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (18 Apr 2026) by Petra Heil
AR by Yong-Fei Zhang on behalf of the Authors (14 May 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (02 Aug 2026) by Petra Heil
AR by Yong-Fei Zhang on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2026)
Author's response
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This paper deals with applied problem of subseasonal prediction of Antarctic sea ice concentration/extent/volume. It looks in detail at two reforecast experiments, one with and one without data assimliation, and compares this to an observational sea ice record (plus a few other reference datasets). Results are discussed in terms of seasons and sectors of the Southern Ocean. A comparison to similar existing studies for the Arctic show a few interesting differences. For example, that sea ice predictability as a function of initialization season is not the same in the Antarctic as it is in the Arctic.
I don't know enough about the immediately adjacent literature to comment on the novelty or need for this study, but the paper seems solid. With a few exceptions (my comments below), the paper is organized well, the writing is easy to follow, the figures are clear, and the length seems appropriate.
Detailed comments:
Defining the two main datasets. This paper is focused on SPEAR vs SICDA, but this isn't made explicit early enough. It only started to become clear as I made my way through Section 2. The last paragraph of Section 1 hints at this comparison being important. And the end of Section 2.3 reiterates it a bit. But I'd suggest being more explicit. One option would be to move a couple of sentences from end of Sections 1 and 2.3 to the start of Section 2 (before Section 2.1 even). Make it very clear in one place. Another option would be to add a Table or Figure that summarizes Section 2 (what models will be used, what quantities will be compared, etc). Although it wouldn't add anything new, this Table/Figure would be a quick way for the reader to refer back and check the details quickly.
Add sector lines to all map figures. Figures 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11, and 12 would benefit from having five lines radiating out from the south pole that separate the maps into the five sectors defined in Section 2.6. To make sense of Section 3, I found that I had to draw these lines on myself (at least onto the top left map in each figure). Consider labeling the sectors in Figure 2a, then just repeating the lines thereafter.
The paper uses a small number of acronyms, but uses them a lot. I'm not sure it's a problem that has a good solution, but it does make a lot of the sentences stilted. A couple of egregious cases are the definition of EAFK on L97 (which is never subsequently used) and DART on L67 and L96 (which is only used twice, but defined in full both times). Also, avoid acronyms in headings (subsections of 3.1). Just write out each phrase in full.
Vague quantification in the Abstract: There is an overuse of vague adjectives in this part, rather than concrete numbers. Examples include 'significantly' (L5), 'considerable' (L6), 'mostly' (L6), 'improved the most' vs 'minor differences' (L11), 'more significant' (L12). Since many readers only interact with papers via the abstract, make sure to include at least some key metrics.
There is also some vague quantification in other parts as well:
- 'skillful predictions' at L48 (how skillful?)
- 'improved' at L49 (by how much?)
- 'outperformed' at L64 (by how much?)
- 'reasonably represent' at L122
- 'underestimate' at L124 (by how much)
- 'noticeably' at L164
15. 'Steady increase' is not the correct description of Antarctic sea ice from late 70s to 2015. It didn't decrease over this period, but it wasn't clearly increasing, and it certainly wasn't doing so steadily.
26, 30. Unclear what 'perfect' means here.
161. Define the months for each season earlier in Section 3. You do define these later (at L169), but at least for L161-167, I was left wondering exactly what, say, 'summer' corresponded to.
194. Section 3.1.2 seems just as much about Thickness as it is about Volume. Perhaps this should be reflected in the heading.
197. 'thickest' seems like a weird adjective for describing sea ice volume.
215. Replace 'from the West Weddell Sea to the East Weddell Sea' with just 'across the Weddell sector'?
243. 'first month' seems a weird description. To me, 5–10 days would be a more appropriate description. Yes, some cases extend beyond 10 days, but a month is too much of an upper bound to be relevant for this sentence, right?
261. If I'm reading this sentence right, you're inferring that SICDA has the 'most considerable skill improvement' because it is better than SPEAR. But you're only comparing two cases. If so, the word 'most' is inappropriate as it should be reserved for comparing three or more cases.
282. Not clear what 'This' refers to. Is it the underprediction in Dec–Jan? Or is it referring to the merging of skill values (from an earlier sentence).
303. Unclear how Figure 12j has 'no noticeable bias'. Are you implying that, say, the 0.07 average value is ≈0?
310-317. The last paragraph before the Conclusion only cites results that are shown in the Supplementary material. Why? One would think the last paragraph of a 'Results and Discussion' section is a good place for a key result. But relegating it to the Supplementary gives the opposite impression. Is there a 12-figure limit for this journal, so you decided putting the figure in the Supplementary was a good workaround? If so, it isn't.
377-379. Remove the last three sentences. They're a repetitive and weak way to finish the paper. Finish with what you showed, not what didn't work.
Figures
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Figures 1 and 5: set the bottom axis at exactly zero
Figures 5 and 6: what is sea ice volume measured in? Is it actually a thickness?
Figures 1 and 5: remove redundant decimal places in y axes (e.g., 6.00, 4.00, 2.00 → 6, 4, 2)
Figure 3:
- Why is the colormap so saturated? Increase color limit to 0.5, say?
- Redefine the acronym ACC here, since it isn't an intuitive acronym.
Figure 8:
- Add x label ('Time (days)'?) directly to panel e, rather than just stating it in the caption.
- Make the 'DP' line for the Arctic a black dashed line. This would follow the pattern of the red and blue lines.
- Then consider making the legend two columns by three rows to make it really explicit how the line color/style system works.
- Consider replacing 'red dot' and 'red circle' with 'filled red circle' and 'open red circle'? since the open circles aren't obvious. I couldn't initially figure out how a 'dot' was different to a 'circle'.
- Remove the '(red dashed lines)', '(red solid lines)' etc from the caption, which aren't necessary since these details are in the legend already.
Figure 9: Same as for Figure 8
Figure 5 error bars:
The error bars for this figure aren't appropriate. Each error bar is derived from five values. You've chosen to use ±2 standard deviations. But datasets of five are awfully small for standard deviation to be meaningful. Further, ±2 standard deviations is typically taken to be approximately equal to a 95% confidence interval (1.96 standard deviations). Of course, with only five values, you can't estimate a confidence interval that well. Could you solve all this by just using the minima and maxima of the five cases for the error bars?
Figure 10:
- Different colored lines are unnecessary here since it's obvious which months are relevant from where the lines begin.
- The caption is incorrect and appears to have been copy/pasted from a different figure.
Figure S7: Same as for first comment for Figure 10.
Typos:
330: 'from' is repeated
Captions of Figures 7 and S6: 'forcast'