The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5131-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5131-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Research article
 | 
14 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 14 Sep 2026

Evaluation of meltwater-over-accumulation ratio as a predictor of surface ponding on Antarctic ice shelves

Emily C. Glazer and Kirsty J. Tinto

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Short summary
Surface meltwater ponds on Antarctic ice shelves can trigger ice break-up. Using satellite records of observed ponds along with temperatures, snowfall rates, and melt rates from climate models, we show that ponding occurs more widely than theory predicts. Our calibrated method identifies vulnerable areas more accurately and suggests pond coverage could be over double what standard methods predict by 2100, highlighting the need for careful evaluation of climate thresholds used to predict ponding.
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