The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5131-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5131-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Research article
 | 
14 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 14 Sep 2026

Evaluation of meltwater-over-accumulation ratio as a predictor of surface ponding on Antarctic ice shelves

Emily C. Glazer and Kirsty J. Tinto

Data sets

Data set: Yearly RACMO2.3p2 variables, threshold temperature and Sentinel-2 melt pond volume J. van Wessem et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7334047

Monthly RACMO2.4p1 data for Antarctica (11 km) for SMB, SEB and near-surface variables (1979-2023) C. van Dalum et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14217232

Data set: "Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution" B. Noël et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10007855

Research data supporting “Substantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves” R. Dell et al. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.108421

Antarctic-wide surface meltwater data P. Tuckett https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14865075

MEaSUREs Antarctic Boundaries for IPY 2007-2009 from Satellite Radar J. Mouginot et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/AXE4121732AD

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Short summary
Surface meltwater ponds on Antarctic ice shelves can trigger ice break-up. Using satellite records of observed ponds along with temperatures, snowfall rates, and melt rates from climate models, we show that ponding occurs more widely than theory predicts. Our calibrated method identifies vulnerable areas more accurately and suggests pond coverage could be over double what standard methods predict by 2100, highlighting the need for careful evaluation of climate thresholds used to predict ponding.
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