The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4605-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4605-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Research article
 | 
21 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 21 Aug 2026

On the reliability of seasonal snow forecasts

Ekaterina Vorobeva, Yvan Orsolini, Patricia de Rosnay, Jonathan Day, Retish Senan, Damien Decremer, and Frederic Vitart

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Short summary
How reliable are probabilistic seasonal snow forecasts in winter? Although they are routinely issued by operational prediction centres, their reliability has never been evaluated. We close this gap by analyzing 30 years of seasonal snow re-forecasts and evaluating them against two snow datasets. Our results provide comprehensive assessment of seasonal snow forecast reliability and offer new insights into their performance in different parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
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