Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4605-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4605-2026
Research article
 | 
21 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 21 Aug 2026

On the reliability of seasonal snow forecasts

Ekaterina Vorobeva, Yvan Orsolini, Patricia de Rosnay, Jonathan Day, Retish Senan, Damien Decremer, and Frederic Vitart

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ESA Snow Climate Change Initiative (Snow_cci): Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) level 3C daily global climate research data package (CRDP) (1979-2023) K. Luojus et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/edf8abd23f4a40aabd4d52e48dec06ea

Download
Short summary
How reliable are probabilistic seasonal snow forecasts in winter? Although they are routinely issued by operational prediction centres, their reliability has never been evaluated. We close this gap by analyzing 30 years of seasonal snow re-forecasts and evaluating them against two snow datasets. Our results provide comprehensive assessment of seasonal snow forecast reliability and offer new insights into their performance in different parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
Share