The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Holly K. Han, Mauro Perego, Alexander O. Hager, Andrew Nolan, Xylar Asay-Davis, Stephen F. Price, Jerry Watkins, and Max Carlson

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Short summary
We present new simulations that complement our contribution to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 ensemble. We find significant mass loss after 2300 under both low-emissions and present-day forcing. Thermal evolution is extremely important, with fixed temperature yielding up to almost twice as much mass loss as simulations with evolving temperature. External forcing uncertainty, rather than parameter uncertainty, dominates the ensemble spread after 2050.
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