Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

Hillebrand, Trevor R.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Han, Holly K.; Perego, Mauro; Hager, Alexander O.; Nolan, Andrew; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Price, Stephen F.; Watkins, Jerry; Carlson, Max

doi:10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 7

Research article

|

24 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 24 Jul 2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Holly K. Han, Mauro Perego, Alexander O. Hager, Andrew Nolan, Xylar Asay-Davis, Stephen F. Price, Jerry Watkins, and Max Carlson

Data sets

MPAS- Albany Land Ice simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300: Exp02–05 flux fields T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16803637

MPAS- Albany Land Ice simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300: Exp02–05 state fields T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16798097

MPAS- Albany Land Ice simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300: Exp11–14 flux fields T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16805185

MPAS- Albany Land Ice simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300: Exp11–14 state fields T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16805033

MPAS-Albany Land Ice simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300: time series T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16805241

Model code and software

Energy Exascale Earth System Model E3SM Team https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16809723

mali-ismip6-ais-2300-anova analysis scripts M. Hoffman https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16813658

Short summary

We present new simulations that complement our contribution to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 ensemble. We find significant mass loss after 2300 under both low-emissions and present-day forcing. Thermal evolution is extremely important, with fixed temperature yielding up to almost twice as much mass loss as simulations with evolving temperature. External forcing uncertainty, rather than parameter uncertainty, dominates the ensemble spread after 2050.