The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
Research article
 | 
02 Dec 2025
Research article |  | 02 Dec 2025

Lessons for multi-model ensemble design drawn from emulator experiments: application to a large ensemble for 2100 sea level contributions of the Greenland ice sheet

Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand

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Short summary
Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
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Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...