Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5763-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5763-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2025
| 14 Nov 2025
Winter sea ice edge shaped by Antarctic Circumpolar Current pathways
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Stephy Libera
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Benjamin Richaud
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Alessandro Silvano
Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Martin Vancoppenolle
Sorbonne Université, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN-IPSL), CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
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This study examines 180 years of drought variability in western Central Europe and its links to atmospheric circulation using three evaluated reanalysis datasets. Results reveal strong multidecadal variability, winter wetting, summer drying, and a growing influence of atmospheric evaporative demand through warming. Four circulation patterns are identified, with recent droughts increasingly tied to the European High, marking a shift toward dynamics that intensify drought under climate change.
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How does increased horizontal resolution impact the skills of an ice-ocean numerical model to simulate sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic? We address this question using the NEMO-SI3 model at three different resolutions. While some regional improvements are noticeable in winter in both Arctic and Antarctic, particularly where the ocean is known to influence sea ice, the overall added benefits of using a higher resolution are not systematic.
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The variability of the winter sea ice edge is much higher in regions close to the main topographic features of the Southern Ocean than over the smoother abyssal plain. The oceanic bathymetry influences mesoscale eddy activity and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current jets, affecting both oceanic heat transport and sea ice velocity and subsequently sea ice variability.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1301, 2026
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The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
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We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
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Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Evridiki Chrysagi, Lars Umlauf, Ulf Gräwe, Hans Burchard, and Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
Ocean Sci., 22, 3037–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3037-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-3037-2026, 2026
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High-resolution numerical simulations of the Baltic Sea reveal that fine-scale features known as submesoscales are widespread in the deeper layers of the basin, especially near its boundaries. These features are linked to strong mixing and, in this wind-driven system, are found to intensify during storms, with wind reversals shifting the location of mixing hotspots. Our results suggest that storm-modulated submesoscales may be important in other wind-driven coastal seas and lakes.
Augustin Lambotte, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Jean-François Lemieux, Frédéric Dupont, Martin Vancoppenolle, Antoine Barthélemy, and Pierre-Yves Barriat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3861, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Arctic fast ice influences the ocean and is important for Arctic communities and animals. Using the ocean and sea ice model NEMO-SI3, we study the interactions between sea ice mechanical formulation and grounding scheme. While the grounding scheme is the most important mechanism, its effect varies with the mechanical formulation. Our results highlight the importance of accurately simulating fast ice thickness and point to future developments for sea ice mechanical frameworks in numerical models.
Matilda Weatherley, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Sindhu Ramanath, and Alessandro Silvano
The Cryosphere, 20, 5509–5532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5509-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5509-2026, 2026
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Parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet rest on a bed below sea level, making them vulnerable to ice dynamic changes and instability, but few glaciers have been studied in detail. Here we report on glaciers draining into Porpoise Bay, Wilkes Land, overlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin. We find ice surface thinning, grounding line retreat and ice surface velocity increase over recent decades, consistent with warm ocean waters intrusion. This highlights this region's vulnerability to future warming.
Emile Neimry, Hugues Goosse, and Mathieu Jonard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1759-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1759-2026, 2026
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This study examines 180 years of drought variability in western Central Europe and its links to atmospheric circulation using three evaluated reanalysis datasets. Results reveal strong multidecadal variability, winter wetting, summer drying, and a growing influence of atmospheric evaporative demand through warming. Four circulation patterns are identified, with recent droughts increasingly tied to the European High, marking a shift toward dynamics that intensify drought under climate change.
Annelies Sticker, Francois Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Alexandra Jahn, David A. Bailey, and Benjamin Richaud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4173, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Arctic sea ice has been shrinking for decades, and climate projections suggest this decline will continue, punctuated by episodes of rapid and abrupt sea ice loss. Using a climate model ensemble, our results show that thermodynamic processes, particularly melting at the base of the ice, are the dominant driver of these events. Dynamic processes contribute only a minor fraction. These findings lay the groundwork for developing early warning indicators of rapid Arctic sea ice loss.
Isabelle F. M. White, Oana Dragomir, Alessandro Silvano, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Anna E. Hogg, Pierre Dutrieux, Laura Herraiz-Borreguero, and Jennifer Cocks
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4414, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
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We present a 22-year sea surface height product in the ice-covered Southern Ocean from Envisat and CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data. Our product is 1° longitude by 0.5° latitude from 50° S to the Antarctic coast. Validation with in-situ, independent satellite and reanalysis data shows it captures seasonal and interannual variability. This supports long-term study of large-scale sea level trends and processes in the Southern Ocean, a region that is observing rapid sea ice and ice sheet melting.
Benjamin Richaud, Dániel Topál, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Antoine Barthélemy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3552, 2026
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How does increased horizontal resolution impact the skills of an ice-ocean numerical model to simulate sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic? We address this question using the NEMO-SI3 model at three different resolutions. While some regional improvements are noticeable in winter in both Arctic and Antarctic, particularly where the ocean is known to influence sea ice, the overall added benefits of using a higher resolution are not systematic.
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O'Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Oluwayemi Garuba, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6043–6078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026, 2026
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The ocean and sea ice are central to Earth's climate system, influencing global heat and carbon cycles, weather patterns, and sea level rise. Here the earth system model variables needed for studies of the ocean and sea ice are prioritized and requested. These requested variables were developed through an international, community-based process.
Léna Champiot-Bayard, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Biogeosciences, 23, 4735–4758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026, 2026
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To investigate the future of primary production, we analyzed outputs from several climate models. Changes vary greatly from one region to another: some areas show large increases, while others experience little change or even declines. These differences reflect the balance between water temperature, light availability, and nutrient supply. We also found that the newer generation of climate models projects a much stronger increase than previous models, but with greater uncertainty.
Hugues Goosse, Cecile Davrinche, Benjamin Richaud, Dániel Topál, Stephy Libera, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Alessandro Silvano, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1823, 2026
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The variability of the winter sea ice edge is much higher in regions close to the main topographic features of the Southern Ocean than over the smoother abyssal plain. The oceanic bathymetry influences mesoscale eddy activity and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current jets, affecting both oceanic heat transport and sea ice velocity and subsequently sea ice variability.
Rohit Ghosh, Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela, Sebastian Beyer, Nikolay Koldunov, Stella Berzina, Audrey Delpech, Svetlana Loza, Chathurika Wikramage, Stephy Libera, Matthias Aengenheyster, Amal John, Armelle Remedio, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Fabian Wachsmann, and Thomas Jung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1289, 2026
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Understanding climate change requires detailed computer simulations of the Earth system. Here we present one of the first century-long global simulations in which both the atmosphere and ocean are represented at kilometre-scale resolution. Such simulations are extremely computationally demanding, but we demonstrate their feasibility and show that they can capture key climate patterns while representing important small-scale ocean processes.
Miriam F. Sterl, Carlo J. Mans, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, and Sjoerd Groeskamp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2566, 2026
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Large oceanic 'whirls', called eddies, can mix ocean properties such as heat or salt. The mixing strength is tricky to measure directly. We present a new method to derive the mixing strength based on data from a mooring; a cable from the seafloor to the surface, with instruments along it. We apply our method to a mooring in the Southern Ocean and show that it confirms some important features predicted from theory. The method can be a valuable tool to increase our understanding of ocean mixing.
Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Carl P. Spingys, Andrew J. Lucas, Tiago S. Dotto, Christian T. Wild, Scott W. Tyler, Ted A. Scambos, Christopher B. Kratt, Giuseppe Cappelli, Ethan F. Williams, Mariona Claret, Hannah E. Glover, Meagan E. Wengrove, Madison M. Smith, Michael G. Baker, Giuseppe Marra, Max Tamussino, Zitong Feng, David Lloyd, Liam Taylor, Mikael Mazur, Maria-Daphne Mangriotis, Aaron Micallef, Jennifer Ward Neale, Oleg A. Godin, Matthew H. Alford, Emma P. M. Gregory, Michael A. Clare, Hamid Shiri, Angel Ruiz Angulo, Kathryn L. Gunn, Ben I. Moat, Isobel A. Yeo, Afonso Loureiro, Alessandro Silvano, Arthur Hartog, and Mohammad Belal
Ocean Sci., 22, 1129–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1129-2026, 2026
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Distributed optical fibre sensing (DOFS) is a technology that enables continuous, real-time measurements of environmental parameters along a fibre optic cable. Here, we review the recently emerged applications of DOFS in physical oceanography, and offer a perspective on the technology’s potential for future growth in the field.
Jinfei Wang, Maike Sonnewald, Noé Pirlet, François Massonnet, Hugues Goosse, Dake Chen, and Qinghua Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1301, 2026
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Antarctic sea ice has shifted from expansion to rapid decline since 2016. Using model outputs and data mining, we identified six sea ice regimes, shaped by different dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. A coastal regime, featured by sea ice transport and new ice formation, has shown area loss since 1979, accelerating after 2016. This coastal regime and a pack ice regime together control overall sea ice variability. Our work offers a new framework for understanding Antarctic sea ice changes.
Benjamin Richaud, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Dániel Topál, Antoine Barthélemy, and David Docquier
The Cryosphere, 20, 791–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-791-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-791-2026, 2026
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Sea ice covers in the Arctic and Antarctic experienced intense reduction during specific recent years. Using an ocean-sea ice model, we found similarities between hemispheres and years to explain the ice reduction, such as ice melt (or lack of growth) at the ice-ocean interface. Differences between years and regions are also evident, such as increased ice transport or snow precipitation. Our analysis highlights the importance of the ice-ocean interface to understand the sea ice mass budget.
Letizia Tedesco, Giulia Castellani, Pedro Duarte, Meibing Jin, Sebastien Moreau, Eric Mortenson, Benjamin Tobey Saenz, Nadja Steiner, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere, 20, 723–736, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-723-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-723-2026, 2026
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Sea ice hosts tiny algae that support polar marine life, yet their growth remains challenging to simulate. We tested six computer models using data from a 2015 Arctic drifting ice expedition to see how well they reproduced spring algae blooms and nutrient changes. While tuning helped models better match algae growth, nutrients remained difficult to capture. Our results highlight key challenges in representing fragile sea‑ice habitats that are expected to become more common as the Arctic warms.
Lu Zhou, Holly Ayres, Birte Gülk, Aditya Narayanan, Casimir de Lavergne, Malin Ödalen, Alessandro Silvano, Xingchi Wang, Margaret Lindeman, and Nadine Steiger
The Cryosphere, 20, 285–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-285-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-285-2026, 2026
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Polynyas are large openings in polar sea ice that can influence global climate and ocean circulation. After disappearing for 40 years, major polynyas reappeared in the Weddell Sea in 2016 and 2017, sparking new scientific questions. Our review explores how ocean currents, atmospheric conditions, and deep ocean heat drive their formation. These polynyas impact ecosystems, carbon exchange, and deep water formation, but their future remains uncertain, requiring better observations and models.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
The Cryosphere, 19, 6483–6492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6483-2025, 2025
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Ice cores are influenced by local processes that alter SMB (surface mass balance) records. To evaluate if atmospheric circulation on large spatial scales can explain differing snowfall trends at 8 East Antarctic ice rises, we assimilated their ice core SMB records within a high-resolution downscaled atmospheric model with quantified local errors from radar constraints. The reconstruction captures the SMB records’ variability but may over-fit by introducing unrealistic spatial heterogeneity.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
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We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Ting-Chen Chen, Hugues Goosse, Cécile Davrinche, Stephy Libera, Christopher Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Kristian Strommen, Malcolm Roberts, Rohit Ghosh, and Jin-Song von Storch
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1179–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1179-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1179-2025, 2025
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Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a leading mode of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, but global models often overestimate its persistence in summer. Bias in SAM persistence is reduced and jet latitude improved using high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST)-prescribed models, pointing to the central role of SSTs. Control experiments explore the influence of model resolution and mesoscale ocean features on SAM persistence, highlighting the complex and subtle nature of air-sea coupling.
Théo Brivoal, Virginie Guemas, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, and Bertrand Decharme
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6885–6902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6885-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6885-2025, 2025
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Snow in polar regions is key to sea ice formation and the Earth's climate, but current climate models simplify snow cover on sea ice. This study integrates an intermediate-complexity snow-physics scheme into a sea ice model designed for climate applications. We show that modeling the temporal changes in properties such as the density and thermal conductivity of the snow layers leads to a more accurate representation of heat transfer between the underlying sea ice and the atmosphere.
Verónica González-Gambau, Estrella Olmedo, Aina García-Espriu, Cristina González-Haro, Antonio Turiel, Carolina Gabarró, Alessandro Silvano, Aditya Narayanan, Alberto Naveira-Garabato, Rafael Catany, Nina Hoareau, Marta Umbert, Giuseppe Aulicino, Yuri Cotroneo, Roberto Sabia, and Diego Fernández-Prieto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5089–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5089-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces a new Sea Surface Salinity product for the Southern Ocean, based on SMOS data and developed by the Barcelona Expert Center. It offers 9 d maps on a 25 km EASE-SL grid, from 2011 to 2023, covering areas south of 30° S. The product is accurate beyond 150 km from sea ice, with nearly zero bias and a ~0.22 STD. It tracks well seasonal and interannual changes and will contribute to the understanding of processes influenced by upper-ocean salinity, including ice formation/melt.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
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We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Jennifer Cocks, Alessandro Silvano, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Oana Dragomir, Noémie Schifano, Anna E. Hogg, and Alice Marzocchi
Ocean Sci., 21, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1609-2025, 2025
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Heat and freshwater fluxes in the Southern Ocean mediate global ocean circulation and abyssal ventilation. These fluxes manifest as changes in steric height: sea level anomalies from changes in ocean density. We compute the steric height anomaly of the Southern Ocean using satellite data and validate it against in situ observations. We analyse trends and variability in steric height, drawing links to climate variability, and discuss the effectiveness of the method, highlighting issues with its application.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
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This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
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We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Clara Celestine Douglas, Nathan Briggs, Peter Brown, Graeme MacGilchrist, and Alberto Naveira Garabato
Ocean Sci., 20, 475–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-475-2024, 2024
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We use data from satellites and robotic floats to assess what drives year-to-year variability in primary production in the Weddell Gyre. We find that the maximum area of ice-free water in the summer is important in determining the total primary production in the region but that areas that are ice free for longer than 120 d become nutrient limited. This has potential implications for ecosystem health in a warming world, where a decline in sea ice cover will affect total primary production.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
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The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Crispin Halsall
The Cryosphere, 17, 3193–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, 2023
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A recent study showed that pollutants can be enriched in growing sea ice beyond what we would expect from a perfectly dissolved chemical. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the specific properties of the pollutants working in combination with fluid moving through the sea ice. To test our hypothesis, we replicate this behaviour in a sea-ice model and show that this type of modelling can be applied to predicting the transport of chemicals with complex behaviour in sea ice.
Benjamin Richaud, Katja Fennel, Eric C. J. Oliver, Michael D. DeGrandpre, Timothée Bourgeois, Xianmin Hu, and Youyu Lu
The Cryosphere, 17, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is a dynamic carbon reservoir. Its seasonal growth and melt modify the carbonate chemistry in the upper ocean, with consequences for the Arctic Ocean carbon sink. Yet, the importance of this process is poorly quantified. Using two independent approaches, this study provides new methods to evaluate the error in air–sea carbon flux estimates due to the lack of biogeochemistry in ice in earth system models. Those errors range from 5 % to 30 %, depending on the model and climate projection.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Dani C. Jones, Maike Sonnewald, Shenjie Zhou, Ute Hausmann, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Isabella Rosso, Lars Boehme, Michael P. Meredith, and Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
Ocean Sci., 19, 857–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-857-2023, 2023
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Machine learning is transforming oceanography. For example, unsupervised classification approaches help researchers identify underappreciated structures in ocean data, helping to generate new hypotheses. In this work, we use a type of unsupervised classification to identify structures in the temperature and salinity structure of the Weddell Gyre, which is an important region for global ocean circulation and for climate. We use our method to generate new ideas about mixing in the Weddell Gyre.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
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The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
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The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
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The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere, 17, 1935–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, 2023
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This study provides clues on how improved atmospheric reanalysis products influence sea ice simulations in ocean–sea ice models. The summer ice concentration simulation in both hemispheres can be improved with changed surface heat fluxes. The winter Antarctic ice concentration and the Arctic drift speed near the ice edge and the ice velocity direction simulations are improved with changed wind stress. The radiation fluxes and winds in atmospheric reanalyses are crucial for sea ice simulations.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
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We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Stefanie L. Ypma, Quinten Bohte, Alexander Forryan, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Andy Donnelly, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 18, 1477–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1477-2022, 2022
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In this research we aim to improve cleanup efforts on the Galapagos Islands of marine plastic debris when resources are limited and the distribution of the plastic on shorelines is unknown. Using a network that describes the flow of macroplastic between the islands we have identified the most efficient cleanup locations, quantified the impact of targeting these locations and showed that shorelines where the plastic is unlikely to leave are likely efficient cleanup locations.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
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Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6331–6354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, 2021
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This study introduces a new Sea Ice Evaluation Tool (SITool) to evaluate the model skills on the bipolar sea ice simulations by providing performance metrics and diagnostics. SITool is applied to evaluate the CMIP6 OMIP simulations. By changing the atmospheric forcing from CORE-II to JRA55-do data, many aspects of sea ice simulations are improved. SITool will be useful for helping teams managing various versions of a sea ice model or tracking the time evolution of model performance.
Cited articles
Abernathey, R. P., Cerovecki, I., Holland, P. R., Newsom, E., Mazloff, M., and Talley, L. D.: Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning, Nature Geosci., 9, 596–601, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2749, 2016.
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Short summary
The position of the winter sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean is strongly linked to the one of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and thus to ocean bathymetry. This is due to the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current on the southward heat flux that limits sea ice expansion, directly through oceanic processes and indirectly through its influence on atmospheric heat transport.
The position of the winter sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean is strongly linked to the one of...
