Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5423-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5423-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Estimation of the state and parameters in ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter and Observing System Simulation Experiments
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Alek Petty
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Denis Felikson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Jonathan Poterjoy
Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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The Cryosphere, 19, 3749–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet over the next 20–30 years but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2683, 2025
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We compared satellite measurements of ice surface height in Greenland with ground-based observations, revealing sub-centimeter accuracy of the satellite instrument. We also demonstrated a new autonomous method using reflected radio signals to measure the surface without human traverses. This method produces comparable results, and we find no long-term changes in satellite performance to date.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 2625–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2625-2024, 2024
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Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
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We present upgrades to winter Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from NASA's ICESat-2. Our new thickness results show better agreement with independent data from ESA's CryoSat-2 compared to our first data release, as well as new, very strong comparisons with data collected by moorings in the Beaufort Sea. We analyse three winters of thickness data across the Arctic, including 50 cm thinning of the multiyear ice over this 3-year period.
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Christian J. Taubenberger, Denis Felikson, and Thomas Neumann
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Outlet glaciers are projected to account for half of the total ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet over the 21st century. We classify patterns of seasonal dynamic thickness changes of outlet glaciers using new observations from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Our results reveal seven distinct patterns that differ across glaciers even within the same region. Future work can use our results to improve our understanding of processes that drive seasonal ice sheet changes.
Ron Kwok, Alek A. Petty, Marco Bagnardi, Nathan T. Kurtz, Glenn F. Cunningham, Alvaro Ivanoff, and Sahra Kacimi
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The Cryosphere, 15, 345–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, 2021
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Snow on sea ice plays an important role in the Arctic climate system. Large spatial and temporal discrepancies among the eight snow depth products are analyzed together with their seasonal variability and long-term trends. These snow products are further compared against various ground-truth observations. More analyses on representation error of sea ice parameters are needed for systematic comparison and fusion of airborne, in situ and remote sensing observations.
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Short summary
We combined numerical models with satellite observations using the ensemble Kalman filter to improve predictions of glacier states and their basal conditions. Our simulations show that incorporating more data generally improves prediction accuracy. We also tested different types of data and found that the high-resolution observations provide the greatest improvements. This method can help guide the design of future observing systems and improve long-term projections of ice sheet change.
We combined numerical models with satellite observations using the ensemble Kalman filter to...