Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 07 Oct 2025
| 07 Oct 2025
Reinforced ridges in Thwaites Glacier yield insights into resolution requirements for coupled ice sheet and solid Earth models
Luc Houriez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Lambert Caron
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Surendra Adhikari
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Erik Ivins
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Tyler Pelle
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
Hélène Seroussi
Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Eric Darve
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Martin Fischer
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Related authors
Surendra Adhikari, Lambert Caron, Holly K. Han, Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, and Erik Ivins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We present an efficient way of coupling ice sheet and solid Earth models, targeting ice sheet modelers with little knowledge of and interest in glacial isostatic adjustment processes. We distill solid Earth response signals into "Green's functions," which can be convolved with the spatiotemporal pattern of modeled ice mass change using simple matrix multiplication. The manuscript is timely and encourages greater participation with coupled ice/Earth simulations in the ongoing ISMIP effort.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z. Miller
The Cryosphere, 19, 4237–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used L-band observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to quantify the surface and subsurface liquid water amounts (LWAs) in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The algorithm is described, and the validation results are provided. The results demonstrate the potential for creating an LWA data product across the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), which will advance our understanding of ice sheet physical processes for better projection of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise.
Surendra Adhikari, Lambert Caron, Holly K. Han, Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, and Erik Ivins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We present an efficient way of coupling ice sheet and solid Earth models, targeting ice sheet modelers with little knowledge of and interest in glacial isostatic adjustment processes. We distill solid Earth response signals into "Green's functions," which can be convolved with the spatiotemporal pattern of modeled ice mass change using simple matrix multiplication. The manuscript is timely and encourages greater participation with coupled ice/Earth simulations in the ongoing ISMIP effort.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackermann, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
The Cryosphere, 19, 3749–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet over the next 20–30 years but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Lauren Andrews, Jana Kolassa, Julie Z. Miller, and Richard Cullather
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2681, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Microwave L-band radiometry offers a promising tool for estimating the total surface-to-subsurface liquid water amount (LWA) in the snow and firn in polar ice sheets. An accurate modelling of wet snow effective permittivity is a key to this. Here, we evaluated the performance of ten commonly used microwave dielectric mixing models for estimating LWA in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet to help an appropriate choice of dielectric mixing model for LWA retrieval algorithms.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We present ISEFlow, a machine learning emulator that predicts how the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to sea level. ISEFlow is fast and accurate, allowing scientists to explore different climate scenarios with greater confidence. ISEFlow distinguishes between high and low emissions scenarios, helping us understand how today’s choices impact future sea levels. ISEFlow supports more reliable climate predictions and helps scientists study the future of ice sheets.
Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Helene L. Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4047, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Melting beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is key to future sea-level rise. We compare several different ocean simulations with satellite measurements, and provide the first multi-model average estimate of melting and refreezing driven by both ocean temperature and currents beneath ice shelves. The multi-model average can provide a useful tool for better understanding the role of ice shelf melting in present-day and future ice-sheet changes and informing coastal adaptation efforts.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Lambert Caron, Erik Ivins, Eric Larour, Surendra Adhikari, and Laurent Metivier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3414, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Presented here is a new model of the solid-Earth response to tides and mass changes in ice sheets, oceans, and groundwater, in of terms of gravity change and bedrock motion. The model is capable simulating mantle deformation including elasticity, transient and steady-state viscous flow. We detail our approach to numerical optimization, and report the accuracy of results with respect to community benchmarks. The resulting coupled system features kilometer-scale resolution and fast computation.
Tyler Pelle, Paul G. Myers, Andrew Hamilton, Matthew Mazloff, Krista Soderlund, Lucas Beem, Donald D. Blankenship, Cyril Grima, Feras Habbal, Mark Skidmore, and Jamin S. Greenbaum
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3751, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we develop and run a high resolution ocean model of Jones Sound from 2003–2016 and characterize circulation into, out of, and within the sound as well as associated sea ice and productivity cycles. Atmospheric and ocean warming drive sea ice decline, which enhance biological productivity due to the increased light availability. These results highlight the utility of high resolution models in simulating complex waterways and the need for sustained oceanographic measurements in the sound.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sarah S. Thompson, Bernd Kulessa, Adrian Luckman, Jacqueline A. Halpin, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Tyler Pelle, Feras Habbal, Jingxue Guo, Lenneke M. Jong, Jason L. Roberts, Bo Sun, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use satellite imagery and ice penetrating radar to investigate the stability of the Shackleton system in East Antarctica. We find significant changes in surface structures across the system and observe a significant increase in ice flow speed (up to 50 %) on the floating part of Scott Glacier. We conclude that knowledge remains woefully insufficient to explain recent observed changes in the grounded and floating regions of the system.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Flavien Beaud, Saif Aati, Ian Delaney, Surendra Adhikari, and Jean-Philippe Avouac
The Cryosphere, 16, 3123–3148, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3123-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3123-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding sliding at the bed of glaciers is essential to understand the future of sea-level rise and glacier-related hazards. Yet there is currently no universal law to describe this mechanism. We propose a universal glacier sliding law and a method to qualitatively constrain it. We use satellite remote sensing to create velocity maps over 6 years at Shisper Glacier, Pakistan, including its recent surge, and show that the observations corroborate the generalized theory.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Blake A. Castleman, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Lambert Caron, Eric Larour, and Ala Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 16, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR) contribution from Thwaites Glacier in a 200-year period under an extreme ocean warming scenario. We derive the spatial and vertical resolutions needed for bedrock data acquisition missions in order to limit global mean SLR contribution from Thwaites Glacier to ±2 cm in a 200-year period. We conduct sensitivity experiments in order to present the locations of critical regions in need of accurate mapping.
Kevin Bulthuis and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present and implement a stochastic solver to sample spatially and temporal varying uncertain input parameters in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, such as ice thickness or surface mass balance. We represent these sources of uncertainty using Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function. We generate random samples of this random field using an efficient computational approach based on solving a stochastic partial differential equation.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2545–2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are routinely used to understand the past and future behavior of ice sheets in response to climate evolution. As is always the case with numerical modeling, one needs to minimize biases and numerical artifacts due to the choice of numerical scheme employed in such models. Here, we assess different numerical schemes in time-dependent simulations of ice sheets. We also introduce a new parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice sheet flow.
Daniel Cheng, Wayne Hayes, Eric Larour, Yara Mohajerani, Michael Wood, Isabella Velicogna, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 15, 1663–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tracking changes in Greenland's glaciers is important for understanding Earth's climate, but it is time consuming to do so by hand. We train a program, called CALFIN, to automatically track these changes with human levels of accuracy. CALFIN is a special type of program called a neural network. This method can be applied to other glaciers and eventually other tracking tasks. This will enhance our understanding of the Greenland Ice Sheet and permit better models of Earth's climate.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Mathieu Morlighem, Surendra Adhikari, Thomas Frederikse, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Erik Ivins, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Kopp, and Sophie Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems and improves the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the scientific community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
Cited articles
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Nowicki, S.: Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics, Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014. a
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., and Larour, E.: ISSM-SESAW v1.0: mesh-based computation of gravitationally consistent sea-level and geodetic signatures caused by cryosphere and climate driven mass change, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1087-2016, 2016. a, b
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Caron, L., and Seroussi, H.: A kinematic formalism for tracking ice–ocean mass exchange on the Earth's surface and estimating sea-level change, The Cryosphere, 14, 2819–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, 2020. a, b
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni, A., Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley, R., Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Caccamise, D. J., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A., and Wiens, D. A.: Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability, Science, 360, 1335–1339, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1447, 2018. a, b, c, d
Berdahl, M., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Urban, N. M., and Hoffman, M. J.: Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023. a
Book, C., Hoffman, M. J., Kachuck, S. B., Hillebrand, T. R., Price, S. F., Perego, M., and Bassis, J. N.: Stabilizing effect of bedrock uplift on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, at centennial timescales, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 597, 117798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117798, 2022. a, b, c, d
Caron, L. and Ivins, E. R.: A baseline Antarctic GIA correction for space gravimetry, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 531, 115957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115957, 2020. a
Caron, L., Métivier, L., Greff-Lefftz, M., Fleitout, L., and Rouby, H.: Inverting Glacial Isostatic Adjustment signal using Bayesian framework and two linearly relaxing rheologies, Geophys. J. Int., 209, 1126–1147, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx083, 2017. a
Caron, L., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Adhikari, S., Nilsson, J., and Blewitt, G.: GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2203–2212, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076644, 2018. a
Coulon, V., Bulthuis, K., Whitehouse, P. L., Sun, S., Haubner, K., Zipf, L., and Pattyn, F.: Contrasting Response of West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2020JF006003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF006003, 2021. a
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J. F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet–sea-level model: algorithm and applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014. a
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., Whitehouse, P. L., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 169, 13–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.05.013, 2017. a
dos Santos, T. D., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., Devloo, P. R. B., and Simões, J. C.: Implementation and performance of adaptive mesh refinement in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM v4.14), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 215–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-215-2019, 2019. a
Dziewonski, A. M. and Anderson, D. L.: Preliminary reference Earth model, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 25, 297–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(81)90046-7, 1981. a
Farrell, W. E. and Clark, J. A.: On Postglacial Sea Level, Geophys. J. Roy. Astr. S., 46, 647–667, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1976.tb01252.x, 1976. a
Faul, U. and Jackson, I.: Transient creep and strain energy dissipation: An experimental perspective, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 43, 541–569, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054732, 2015. a
Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., and Zwinger, T.: A three-dimensional full Stokes model of the grounding line dynamics: effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 6, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-101-2012, 2012. a
Fretwell, P., Fremand, A., Bodart, J., Pritchard, H., Vaughan, D., Bamber, J., Barrand, N., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R., Blankenship, D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A., Corr, H., Damaske, D., Damn, V., and Zirizzotti, A.: BEDMAP2 – Ice thickness, bed and surface elevation for Antarctica – standardised data points (Version 1.0), NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre [data set], https://doi.org/10.5285/2FD95199-365E-4DA1-AE26-3B6D48B3E6AC (last access: 11 September 2025), 2022. a
Gomez, N., Mitrovica, J. X., Tamisiea, M. E., and Clark, P. U.: A new projection of sea level change in response to collapse of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Geophys. J. Int., 180, 623–634, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04419.x, 2010. a
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., Mitrovica, J. X., Huybers, P., and Clark, P. U.: Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet–sea level model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002128, 2012. a
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Holland, D.: Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss, Nat. Commun., 6, 8798, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9798, 2015. a, b
Gomez, N., Latychev, K., and Pollard, D.: A Coupled Ice Sheet–Sea Level Model Incorporating 3D Earth Structure: Variations in Antarctica during the Last Deglacial Retreat, J. Climate, 31, 4041–4054, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0352.1, 2018. a
Gomez, N., Weber, M. E., Clark, P. U., Mitrovica, J. X., and Han, H. K.: Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing, Nature, 587, 600–604, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2916-2, 2020. a
Gomez, N., Yousefi, M., Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., Sadai, S., Lloyd, A., Nyblade, A., Wiens, D. A., Aster, R. C., and Wilson, T.: The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica's contribution to future global sea levels, Science Advances, 10, eadn1470, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn1470, 2024. a, b, c, d
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019. a
Han, H. K., Gomez, N., and Wan, J. X. W.: Capturing the interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth on a range of timescales: a new “time window” algorithm, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, 2022. a
Hecht, F.: bamg: Bidimensional anisotropic mesh generator, https://www.ljll.fr/hecht/ftp/bamg/bamg.pdf (last access: 10 September 2025), 1998. a
Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Reese, R., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P. M.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry, The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023. a
Houriez, L.: Supporting data for “Capturing Solid Earth and Ice Sheet Interactions: Insights from Reinforced Ridges in Thwaites Glacier”, Zenodo [data set] and [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14548604, 2024. a, b
Ivins, E. R., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Larour, E., and Scheinert, M.: A linear viscoelasticity for decadal to centennial time scale mantle deformation, Rep. Prog. Phys., 83, 106801, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/aba346, 2020. a, b, c
Ivins, E. R., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., and Larour, E.: Notes on a compressible extended Burgers model of rheology, Geophys. J. Int., 228, 1975–1991, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab452, 2022. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a
Kachuck, S. B., Martin, D. F., Bassis, J. N., and Price, S. F.: Rapid Viscoelastic Deformation Slows Marine Ice Sheet Instability at Pine Island Glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086446, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086446, 2020. a, b
Konrad, H., Sasgen, I., Pollard, D., and Klemann, V.: Potential of the solid-Earth response for limiting long-term West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in a warming climate, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 432, 254–264, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.10.008, 2015. a
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Rignot, E.: Continental scale, high order, high spatial resolution, ice sheet modeling using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002140, 2012. a, b, c
Larour, E., Ivins, E. R., and Adhikari, S.: Should coastal planners have concern over where land ice is melting?, Science Advances, 3, e1700537, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700537, 2017. a
Larour, E., Caron, L., Morlighem, M., Adhikari, S., Frederikse, T., Schlegel, N.-J., Ivins, E., Hamlington, B., Kopp, R., and Nowicki, S.: ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020, 2020. a
Lau, H. C.: Transient rheology in sea level change: Implications for Meltwater Pulse 1A, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 609, 118106, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118106, 2023. a, b
Lau, H. C. and Faul, U. H.: Anelasticity from seismic to tidal timescales: Theory and observations, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 508, 18–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.12.009, 2019. a, b
Le Brocq, A. M., Payne, A. J., and Vieli, A.: An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.734145 (last access: 11 September 2025), 2010. a
Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., and Asay-Davis, X. S.: Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021. a
Lucas, E. M., Gomez, N., and Wilson, T.: The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 19, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, 2025. a
Maule, C. F., Purucker, M. E., Olsen, N., and Mosegaard, K.: Heat Flux Anomalies in Antarctica Revealed by Satellite Magnetic Data, Science, 309, 464–467, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106888, 2005. a
Meijgaard, E., Ulft, L., Berg, W., Bosvelt, F., Hurk, B., Lenderink, G., and Siebesma, A.: The KNMI regional atmospheric model RACMO version 2.1, Tech. Rep. 302, KNMI, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6602723, 2008. a
Morlighem, M.: MEaSUREs BedMachine Antarctica (NSIDC-0756, Version 3), Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/FPSU0V1MWUB6, last access: 11 September 2025, 2022. a
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., v. d. Broeke, M. R., v. Ommen, T. D., v. Wessem, M., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a, b
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Aschwanden, A., Breuer, B., de Smedt, B., Gagliardini, O., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Hubbard, A., Johnson, J. V., Kleiner, T., Konovalov, Y., Martin, C., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Price, S., Rückamp, M., Saito, F., Souček, O., Sugiyama, S., and Zwinger, T.: Benchmark experiments for higher-order and full-Stokes ice sheet models (ISMIP–HOM), The Cryosphere, 2, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-95-2008, 2008. a
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Durand, G., Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Zwinger, T., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Docquier, D., Fürst, J. J., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Humbert, A., Hütten, M., Huybrechts, P., Jouvet, G., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rückamp, M., Rybak, O., Seroussi, H., Thoma, M., and Wilkens, N.: Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 59, 410–422, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J129, 2013. a
Pelle, T., Morlighem, M., and Bondzio, J. H.: Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model, The Cryosphere, 13, 1043–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, 2019. a, b
Pollard, D., Gomez, N., and Deconto, R. M.: Variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in a Coupled Ice Sheet-Earth-Sea Level Model: Sensitivity to Viscoelastic Earth Properties, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 122, 2124–2138, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004371, 2017. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014. a, b
Robel, A. A., Wilson, E., and Seroussi, H.: Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice, The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022. a
Seroussi, H. and Morlighem, M.: Representation of basal melting at the grounding line in ice flow models, The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018. a
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., Rignot, E., and Khazendar, A.: Hydrostatic grounding line parameterization in ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 8, 2075–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, 2014. a, b
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Larour, E., Schodlok, M., and Khazendar, A.: Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years, The Cryosphere, 8, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, 2014. a
Seroussi, H., Verjans, V., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Van Katwyk, P., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty, The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023. a
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., and Zwinger, T.: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004561, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561, 2024. a
Simon, K. M., Riva, R. E. M., and Broerse, T.: Identifying Geographical Patterns of Transient Deformation in the Geological Sea Level Record, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 127, e2021JB023693, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023693, 2022. a
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Mitrovica, J.: FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024. a, b
van Calcar, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Blank, B., de Boer, B., and van der Wal, W.: Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023. a
van den Akker, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Leguy, G. R., Bernales, J., Berends, C. J., van de Berg, W. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025. a
Wan, J. X. W., Gomez, N., Latychev, K., and Han, H. K.: Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Whitehouse, P. L., Gomez, N., King, M. A., and Wiens, D. A.: Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nat. Commun., 10, 503, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08068-y, 2019. a
Williams, C. R., Thodoroff, P., Arthern, R. J., Byrne, J., Hosking, J. S., Kaiser, M., Lawrence, N. D., and Kazlauskaite, I.: Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution, Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 60, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02010-z, 2025. a
Short summary
This work examines how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface affect the future of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. We find that small features in the bedrock play a major role in these interactions which can delay the glacier’s retreat by decades or even centuries. This can significantly reduce sea-level rise projections. Our study highlights resolution requirements for similar ice–earth models and the importance of bedrock mapping efforts in Antarctica.
This work examines how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface...
