Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024
Research article
 | 
14 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 14 Jun 2024

Sensitivity to forecast surface mass balance outweighs sensitivity to basal sliding descriptions for 21st century mass loss from three major Greenland outlet glaciers

J. Rachel Carr, Emily A. Hill, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson

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Cited articles

Åkesson, H., Morlighem, M., O’Regan, M., and Jakobsson, M.: Future projections of Petermann Glacier under ocean warming depend strongly on friction law, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2020JF005921, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005921, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Åkesson, H., Morlighem, M., Nilsson, J., Stranne, C., and Jakobsson, M.: Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup, Nat. Commun., 13, 2519, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5, 2022. a, b, c
Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016. a, b
Barnes, J. M. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 16, 4291–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Barnett, J., Holmes, F. A., and Kirchner, N.: Modelled dynamic retreat of Kangerlussuaq Glacier, East Greenland, strongly influenced by the consecutive absence of an ice mélange in Kangerlussuaq Fjord, J. Glaciol., 69, 433–444, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.70, 2022. a
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Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the world's largest glaciers and is melting quickly in response to climate change. It contains fast-flowing channels of ice that move ice from Greenland's centre to its coasts and allow Greenland to react quickly to climate warming. As a result, we want to predict how these glaciers will behave in the future, but there are lots of uncertainties. Here we assess the impacts of two main sources of uncertainties in glacier models.