Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
13 Jul 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Jul 2022
| 13 Jul 2022
A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats
John Erich Christian
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78758, USA
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30318, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30318, USA
Ginny Catania
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78758, USA
Related authors
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Nicole Abib, David A. Sutherland, Rachel Peterson, Ginny Catania, Jonathan D. Nash, Emily L. Shroyer, Leigh A. Stearns, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-504, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of ice mélange, or dense packs of icebergs and sea ice in glacial fjords, can influence the water column by releasing cold, fresh water deep under the ocean surface. However, direct observations of this process have remained elusive. We use measurements of ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity bookending an episodic ice mélange event to show that this meltwater input changes the density profile of a glacial fjord and has implications for understanding tidewater glacier change.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-297, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long time-scale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Alexander Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat Ambelorun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2546, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this "drift" in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Enze Zhang, Ginny Catania, and Daniel T. Trugman
The Cryosphere, 17, 3485–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier termini are essential for studying why glaciers retreat, but they need to be mapped automatically due to the volume of satellite images. Existing automated mapping methods have been limited due to limited automation, lack of quality control, and inadequacy in highly diverse terminus environments. We design a fully automated, deep-learning-based method to produce termini with quality control. We produced 278 239 termini in Greenland and provided a way to deliver new termini regularly.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Evan Carnahan, Ginny Catania, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 16, 4305–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
Sophie Goliber, Taryn Black, Ginny Catania, James M. Lea, Helene Olsen, Daniel Cheng, Suzanne Bevan, Anders Bjørk, Charlie Bunce, Stephen Brough, J. Rachel Carr, Tom Cowton, Alex Gardner, Dominik Fahrner, Emily Hill, Ian Joughin, Niels J. Korsgaard, Adrian Luckman, Twila Moon, Tavi Murray, Andrew Sole, Michael Wood, and Enze Zhang
The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Terminus traces have been used to understand how Greenland's glaciers have changed over time; however, manual digitization is time-intensive, and a lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts. We have compiled a dataset of over 39 000 terminus traces for 278 glaciers for scientific and machine learning applications. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Alexander A. Robel, Christian Schoof, and Eli Tziperman
The Cryosphere, 10, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet edge that rest on upward-sloping beds have the potential to collapse irreversibly and raise global sea level. Using a numerical model, we show that changes in the slipperiness of sediments beneath fast-flowing ice streams can cause them to persist on upward-sloping beds for hundreds to thousands of years before reversing direction. This type of behavior is important to consider as a possibility when interpreting observations of ongoing ice sheet change.
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Climate Interactions
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run
CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica
Brief communication: Understanding solar geoengineering's potential to limit sea level rise requires attention from cryosphere experts
The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Peter J. Irvine, David W. Keith, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 2501–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, a form of solar geoengineering, is a proposal to add a reflective layer of aerosol to the upper atmosphere. This would reduce sea level rise by slowing the melting of ice on land and the thermal expansion of the oceans. However, there is considerable uncertainty about its potential efficacy. This article highlights key uncertainties in the sea level response to solar geoengineering and recommends approaches to address these in future work.
Marcus Lofverstrom and Johan Liakka
The Cryosphere, 12, 1499–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1499-2018, 2018
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., McGregor, H. V., Tierney, J. E., Evans, M. N., McKay, N. P.,
Kaufman, D. S., Thirumalai, K., Martrat, B., Goosse, H., Phipps, S. J.,
Steig, E. J., Kilbourne, K. H., Saenger, C. P., Zinke, J., Leduc, G.,
Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Seidenkrantz, M. S., Sicre, M. A., Selvaraj,
K., Filipsson, H. L., Neukom, R., Gergis, J., Curran, M. A., and Gunten,
L. V.: Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and
continents, Nature, 536, 411–418, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082, 2016. a
Andresen, C. S., Straneo, F., Ribergaard, M. H., Bjørk, A. A., Andersen,
T. J., Kuijpers, A., Nørgaard-Pedersen, N., Kjær, K. H., Schjøth, F.,
Weckström, K., and Ahlstrøm, A. P.: Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in
Greenland to climate variability over the past century, Nat. Geosci., 5,
37–41, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1349, 2012. a, b, c, d
Andresen, C. S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Harden, B., Nørgaard-Pedersen, N., and
Kjær, K. H.: Outlet glacier dynamics and bathymetry at Upernavik Isstrøm
and Upernavik Isfjord, North-West Greenland, Geol. Surv. Den. Greenl., 31,
79–82, https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v31.4668, 2014. a
Applegate, P. J., Kirchner, N., Stone, E. J., Keller, K., and Greve, R.: An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior, The Cryosphere, 6, 589–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-589-2012, 2012. a
Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and Roe, G. H.: Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity
from Regional Feedbacks, J. Climate, 26, 4518–4534,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00544.1, 2013. a
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R.,
Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice
Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Bjørk, A. A., Kjær, K. H., Korsgaard, N. J., Khan, S. A., Kjeldsen, K. K.,
Andresen, C. S., Box, J. E., Larsen, N. K., and Funder, S.: An aerial view of
80 years of climate-related glacier fluctuations in southeast Greenland,
Nat. Geosci., 5, 427–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1481, 2012. a, b
Catania, G. A., Stearns, L. A., Sutherland, D. A., Fried, M. J., Bartholomaus,
T. C., Morlighem, M., Shroyer, E., and Nash, J.: Geometric Controls on
Tidewater Glacier Retreat in Central Western Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 123, 2024–2038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004499, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Catania, G. A., Stearns, L. A., Moon, T. A., Enderlin, E. M., and Jackson,
R. H.: Future Evolution of Greenland's Marine-Terminating Outlet Glaciers,
J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 125, 2,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004873, 2020. a
Christian, J. E.: Marine-terminating-glacier stochastic retreat (release of
code for publication), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6525750, 2022. a, b
Christian, J. E., Robel, A. A., Proistosescu, C., Roe, G., Koutnik, M., and Christianson, K.: The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing, The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Cook, A. J., Vaughan, D. G., Luckman, A. J., and Murray, T.: A new Antarctic
Peninsula glacier basin inventory and observed area changes since the 1940s,
Antarct. Sci., 26, 614–624, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102014000200, 2014. a
Csatho, B., Schenk, T., der Veen, C. J. V., and Krabill, W. B.: Intermittent
thinning of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice age,
J. Glaciol., 54, 131–144, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308784409035, 2008. a
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez,
N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li, D.,
and Dutton, A.: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from
Antarctica, Nature, 593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0, 2021. a
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate
change projections: The role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38,
527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012. a
Dutrieux, P., Rydt, J. D., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H.,
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Abrahamsen, E. P., and Schröder, M.: Strong
sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability,
Science, 343, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244341, 2014. a
Enderlin, E. M., Howat, I. M., and Vieli, A.: High sensitivity of tidewater outlet glacier dynamics to shape, The Cryosphere, 7, 1007–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1007-2013, 2013. a
England, M. R., Eisenman, I., Lutsko, N. J., and Wagner, T. J.: The Recent
Emergence of Arctic Amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, 15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094086, 2021. a
Fried, M. J., Catania, G. A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Duncan, D., Davis, M.,
Stearns, L. A., Nash, J., Shroyer, E., and Sutherland, D.: Distributed
subglacial discharge drives significant submarine melt at a Greenland
tidewater glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9328–9336,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065806, 2015. a
Fyfe, J. C., Salzen, K. V., Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Flato, G. M., and
McConnell, J. R.: One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation
due to anthropogenic influence, Sci. Rep.-UK, 3, 2645,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02645, 2013. a
Fyke, J. G., Vizcaíno, M., and Lipscomb, W. H.: The pattern of anthropogenic
signal emergence in Greenland Ice Sheet surfacemass balance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6002–6008, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060735, 2014. a
Gillett, N. P., Stone, D. A., Stott, P. A., Nozawa, T., Karpechko, A. Y.,
Hegerl, G. C., Wehner, M. F., and Jones, P. D.: Attribution of polar warming
to human influence, Nat. Geosci., 1, 750–754, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo338, 2008. a
Goliber, S., Black, T., Catania, G., Lea, J. M., Olsen, H., Cheng, D., Bevan, S., Bjørk, A., Bunce, C., Brough, S., Carr, J. R., Cowton, T., Gardner, A., Fahrner, D., Hill, E., Joughin, I., Korsgaard, N., Luckman, A., Moon, T., Murray, T., Sole, A., Wood, M., and Zhang, E.: TermPicks: A century of Greenland glacier terminus data for use in machine learning applications, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-311, in review, 2021. a
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Holland, D.: Sea-level feedback lowers projections
of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss, Nat. Commun., 6, 8798,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9798, 2015. a
Gudmundsson, G. H.: Transmission of basal variability to a glacier surface,
J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 108, B5,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jb002107, 2003. a
Gudmundsson, G. H., Krug, J., Durand, G., Favier, L., and Gagliardini, O.: The stability of grounding lines on retrograde slopes, The Cryosphere, 6, 1497–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, 2012. a, b
Hasselmann, K.: Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory, Tellus, 28, 473–485,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v28i6.11316, 1976. a
Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E., Mitchell, D. M.,
Matthews, H. D., and Frame, D. J.: A real-time Global Warming Index,
Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 15417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5, 2017. a
Hegerl, G. C., Karl, T. R., Allen, M., Bindoff, N. L., Gillett, N., Karoly, D.,
Zhang, X., and Zwiers, F.: Climate change detection and attribution: Beyond
mean temperature signals, J. Climate, 19, 5058–5077, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3900.1,
2006. a
Holland, D. M., Thomas, R. H., Young, B. D., Ribergaard, M. H., and Lyberth,
B.: Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbr triggered by warm subsurface ocean
waters, Nat. Geosci., 1, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316, 2008. a
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., and Steig,
E. J.: West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and
anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718–724,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9, 2019. a, b, c
Howat, I. M., Joughin, I., Fahnestock, M., Smith, B. E., and Scambos, T. A.:
Synchronous retreat and acceleration of southeast Greenland outlet glaciers
2000-06: Ice dynamics and coupling to climate, J. Glaciol., 54,
646–660, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570908, 2008. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021. a, b, c, d
Jordan, T. M., Cooper, M. A., Schroeder, D. M., Williams, C. N., Paden, J. D., Siegert, M. J., and Bamber, J. L.: Self-affine subglacial roughness: consequences for radar scattering and basal water discrimination in northern Greenland, The Cryosphere, 11, 1247–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1247-2017, 2017. a, b
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine ice sheet collapse
potentially under way for the thwaites glacier basin, West Antarctica,
Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a, b
Kanafi, M. M.: Surface generator: artificial randomly rough surfaces, MATLAB Central File Exchange [code],
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/60817-surface-generator-artificial-randomly-rough-surfaces (last access: 7 July 2022),
2021. a
Khan, S. A., Kjeldsen, K. K., Kjær, K. H., Bevan, S., Luckman, A., Aschwanden, A., Bjørk, A. A., Korsgaard, N. J., Box, J. E., van den Broeke, M., van Dam, T. M., and Fitzner, A.: Glacier dynamics at Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers, southeast Greenland, since the Little Ice Age, The Cryosphere, 8, 1497–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, 2014. a
Khazendar, A., Fenty, I. G., Carroll, D., Gardner, A., Lee, C. M., Fukumori,
I., Wang, O., Zhang, H., Seroussi, H., Moller, D., Noël, B. P., van den
Broeke, M. R., Dinardo, S., and Willis, J.: Interruption of two decades of
Jakobshavn Isbrae acceleration and thinning as regional ocean cools, Nat. Geosci., 12, 277–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0329-3, 2019. a
King, M. D., Howat, I. M., Jeong, S., Noh, M. J., Wouters, B., Noël, B., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Seasonal to decadal variability in ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018. a, b
MacKie, E. J., Schroeder, D. M., Zuo, C., Yin, Z., and Caers, J.: Stochastic
modeling of subglacial topography exposes uncertainty in water routing at
Jakobshavn Glacier, J. Glaciol., 67, 75–83, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.84,
2021. a
Mann, M. E., Steinman, B. A., and Miller, S. K.: Absence of internal
multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations,
Nat. Commun., 11, 49, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w, 2020. a
Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K., and Parkes, D.: Attribution of global
glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes, Science, 345, 919–921,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254702, 2014. a
Mckinnon, K. A., Dunn-Sigouin, E., and Deser, C.: An “Observational Large
Ensemble” to Compare Observed and Modeled Temperature Trend Uncertainty due
to Internal Variability, J. Climate, 30,
7585–7598, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0905.s1, 2017. a
Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed,
A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M.,
Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E.: Chapter 3: Polar Regions, in:
IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by:
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J.,
Rama, B., Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 203–320, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.005, 2019. a, b
Miles, B. W., Stokes, C. R., Vieli, A., and Cox, N. J.: Rapid, climate-driven
changes in outlet glaciers on the Pacific coast of East Antarctica, Nature,
500, 563–566, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12382, 2013. a
Moon, T. and Joughin, I.: Changes in ice front position on Greenland's outlet
glaciers from 1992 to 2007, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F02022,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000927, 2008. a
Motyka, R. J., Truffer, M., Fahnestock, M., Mortensen, J., Rysgaard, S., and
Howat, I.: Submarine melting of the 1985 Jakobshavn Isbræ floating tongue
and the triggering of the current retreat, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 116, F1, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001632, 2011. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Scheuchl, B., Fenty, I., Khazendar, A., Morlighem,
M., Buzzi, A., and Paden, J.: Fast retreat of Zachariæ Isstrøm, northeast
Greenland, Science, 350, 1357–1361, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac7111, 2015. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjørk, A. A., van den Broeke, M., Millan, R.,
Morlighem, M., el, B. N., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M.: Forty-six years of
Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, Dryad Data, 116, 9239–9244,
https://doi.org/10.7280/D1MM37, 2019. a
Mulder, T. E., Baars, S., Wubs, F. W., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Stochastic marine
ice sheet variability, J. Fluid Mech., 843, 748–777,
https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.148, 2018. a
Murray, T., Scharrer, K., Selmes, N., Booth, A. D., James, T. D., Bevan, S. L.,
Bradley, J., Cook, S., Llana, L. C., Drocourt, Y., Dyke, L., Goldsack, A.,
Hughes, A. L., Luckman, A. J., and McGovern, J.: Extensive Retreat of
Greenland Tidewater Glaciers, 2000–2010, Taylor & Francis Online, https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0014-049, 2015. a, b
Nias, I. J., Cornford, S. L., Edwards, T. L., Gourmelen, N., and Payne, A. J.:
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the
Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11253–11260,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084941, 2019. a
Nick, F. M., Vieli, A., Howat, I. M., and Joughin, I.: Large-scale changes in
Greenland outlet glacier dynamics triggered at the terminus, Nat. Geosci., 2, 110–114, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo394, 2009. a
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
O'Connor, G. K., Steig, E. J., and Hakim, G. J.: Strengthening Southern
Hemisphere westerlies and Amundsen Sea Low deepening over the 20th century
revealed by proxy-data assimilation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48,
e2021GL095999, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095999, 2021. a, b
Parizek, B. R., Christianson, K., Anandakrishnan, S., Alley, R. B., Walker,
R. T., Edwards, R. A., Wolfe, D. S., Bertini, G. T., Rinehart, S. K.,
Bindschadler, R. A., and Nowicki, S. M.: Dynamic (in)stability of Thwaites
Glacier, West Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf.,
118, 638–655, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20044, 2013. a, b
Pegler, S. S.: Suppression of marine ice sheet instability, J. Fluid
Mech., 857, 648–680, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.742, 2018. a
Percival, D. B., Overland, J. E., and Mofjeld, H. O.: Interpretation of North
Pacific Variability as a Short-and Long-Memory Process, J. Climate,
14, 4545–4559, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4545:IONPVA>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.: A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020. a
Ribergaard, M. H. and Buch, E.: Oceanographic investigations off west Greenland
2007, NAFO Scientific Council Documents, 7, 2008. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.:
Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and
Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014. a, b
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Broeke, M. V. D., Wessem, M. J. V., and
Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance from
1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019. a
Robel, A. A.: aarobel/SSAsimpleM: Release of SSAsimpleM for publication, Zenodo [code],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5245271, 2021. a
Robel, A. A., Seroussi, H., and Roe, G. H.: Marine ice sheet instability
amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14887–14892, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904822116, 2019. a, b, c
Roe, G. H. and Baker, M. B.: The response of glaciers to climatic persistence,
J. Glaciol., 62, 440–450, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.4, 2016. a
Roe, G. H., Baker, M. B., and Herla, F.: Centennial glacier retreat as
categorical evidence of regional climate change, Nat. Geosci., 10,
95–99, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2863, 2017. a, b, c, d
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., and Marzeion, B.: On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change, The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021. a, b
Roemmich, D., Gould, W. J., and Gilson, J.: 135 years of global ocean warming
between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme, Nat. Clim.
Change, 2, 425–428, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1461, 2012. a
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 112, 6261–6268,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007. a, b, c, d
Sergienko, O. V. and Wingham, D. J.: Bed topography and marine ice-sheet
stability, J. Glaciol., 68, 124–138, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.79, 2021. a
Shepherd, T. G.: Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in
climate-change science, Clim. Change, 169, 2, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6,
2021. a
Smith, J. A., Andersen, T. J., Shortt, M., Gaffney, A. M., Truffer, M.,
Stanton, T. P., Bindschadler, R., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., Hillenbrand,
C. D., Ehrmann, W., Corr, H. F., Farley, N., Crowhurst, S., and Vaughan,
D. G.: Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of
Pine Island Glacier, Nature, 541, 77–80, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20136, 2017. a, b
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D. S., and Jenkins, A.: Tropical forcing of
circumpolar deep water inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the amundsen sea
embayment, west antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 19–28,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A110, 2012. a
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., and Allen, M. R.: Human contribution to the
European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, 610–614, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089, 2004. a
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J. P., van
Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and
Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events,
WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.380,
2016. a
Straneo, F., Curry, R. G., Sutherland, D. A., Hamilton, G. S., Cenedese, C.,
Våge, K., and Stearns, L. A.: Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on
the circulation near Helheim Glacier, Nat. Geosci., 4, 23–41,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1109, 2011. a, b, c
Straneo, F., Heimbach, P., Sergienko, O., Hamilton, G., Catania, G., Griffies,
S., Hallberg, R., Jenkins, A., Joughin, I., Motyka, R., Pfeffer, W. T.,
Price, S. F., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Truffer, M., and Vieli, A.: Challenges
to understanding the dynamic response of Greenland's marine terminating
glaciers to oc eanic and atmospheric forcing, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1131–1144, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00100.1,
2013.
a, b, c, d
Thoma, M., Jenkins, A., Holland, D., and Jacobs, S.: Modelling Circumpolar Deep
Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034939, 2008. a
Trusel, L. D., Das, S. B., Osman, M. B., Evans, M. J., Smith, B. E., Fettweis,
X., McConnell, J. R., Noël, B. P., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Nonlinear rise
in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming, Nature,
564, 104–108, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0752-4, 2018. a
Tsai, C. Y., Forest, C. E., and Pollard, D.: Assessing the contribution of
internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6261–6268, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073443, 2017. a
Tsai, C. Y., Forest, C. E., and Pollard, D.: The role of internal climate
variability in projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level
rise, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1875–1892, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05354-8, 2020. a
van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Kew, S., Philip, S., Otto, F.,
Vautard, R., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.:
Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution, Clim. Change, 166, 13,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7, 2021. a
Vermassen, F., Wangner, D. J., Dyke, L. M., Schmidt, S., Cordua, A. E., Kjær,
K. H., Haubner, K., and Andresen, C. S.: Evaluating ice-rafted debris as a
proxy for glacier calving in Upernavik Isfjord, NW Greenland, J.
Quaternary Sci., 34, 258–267, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3095, 2019. a, b
Vinther, B. M., Andersen, K. K., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Cappelen, J.:
Extending Greenland temperature records into the late eighteenth century,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006810,
2006. a
Weertman, J.: Stability of the Junction of an Ice Sheet and an Ice Shelf,
J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000023327, 1974. a
Wills, R. C., Battisti, D. S., Armour, K. C., Schneider, T., and Deser, C.:
Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal
Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations, J. Climate,
33, 8693–8719, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0855.1, 2020. a
Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M.,
Mouginot, J., and Seroussi, H.: Ocean-Induced Melt Triggers Glacier Retreat
in Northwest Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8334–8342,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078024, 2018. a, b
Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., An, L., Bjørk, A., Broeke, M. V. D., Cai, C.,
Kane, E., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Noël, B.,
Scheuchl, B., Velicogna, I., Willis, J. K., and Zhang, H.: Ocean forcing
drives glacier retreat in Greenland,
Sci. Adv., eaba7282, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282, 2021. a, b
Co-editor-in-chief
This paper provides a complete and novel perspective on how to attribute changes in glaciers to anthropogenic warming. It is accessible, well written with clear figures, and will certainly be of interest to the wider community.
This paper provides a complete and novel perspective on how to attribute changes in glaciers to...
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic...
