Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
13 Jul 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Jul 2022
| 13 Jul 2022
A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats
John Erich Christian
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78758, USA
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30318, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30318, USA
Ginny Catania
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78758, USA
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We predicted how sea level changed in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) due to glacial isostatic adjustment, or solid Earth ice sheet interactions, over the last deglaciation (20 000 years ago to present) and calculated how these changes in bathymetry impacted ice stream stability. Glacial isostatic adjustment shifts stability from where ice reached its maximum 20 000 years ago, at the continental shelf edge, to the modern grounding line today, reinforcing ice-age climate endmembers.
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Glaciers respond slowly to changes in climate, meaning that they are not yet adjusted to the present-day level of warming. Using a simple model, we find that the median Alaskan glacier has undergone only 27 % of the retreat necessary to equilibrate to the current climate. Our findings hold even when accounting for large uncertainties, suggesting that substantial retreat is inevitable even if future warming slows or stabilizes.
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The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
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Kevin Shionalyn, Ginny Catania, Daniel Trugman, Michael Shahin, Leigh Stearns, and Denis Felikson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3483, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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The ocean-facing front of a glacier changes with the seasons. We know this cycle is controlled by the shape and speed of the glacier as well as by the climate, but we do not have a full understanding of these processes. Our study uses 20 years of data and a machine learning model to predict this pattern and identifies which factors matter most. We find that while several factors influence the seasonal cycle, the shape of the glacier plays a key role in how much a glacier changes annually.
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We predicted how sea level changed in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) due to glacial isostatic adjustment, or solid Earth ice sheet interactions, over the last deglaciation (20 000 years ago to present) and calculated how these changes in bathymetry impacted ice stream stability. Glacial isostatic adjustment shifts stability from where ice reached its maximum 20 000 years ago, at the continental shelf edge, to the modern grounding line today, reinforcing ice-age climate endmembers.
Paul T. Summers, Rebecca H. Jackson, and Alexander A. Robel
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We develop a method that allows numerical ocean models to include drag from icebergs, even for icebergs smaller than the model grid scale. This builds upon previous models that have either neglected iceberg drag, or required higher resolution to model individual icebergs. We test our model against higher resolution models, as well as models without iceberg drag, and show that including drag from icebergs is important for capturing realistic ocean circulation, temperature, and ice melt rates.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
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Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
The Cryosphere, 19, 1599–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, 2025
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The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Paul T. Summers, Jenny Suckale, Knut Christianson, Ginny Catania, and Howard Conway
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1239, 2025
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In Antarctica, fast-flowing ice streams drive most ice loss. Radar data from Conway Ice Ridge reveal that the van der Veen and Mercer Ice Streams were wider ~3000 years ago and narrowed progressively. Numerical modeling demonstrates that small thickness changes can rapidly alter shear-margin locations. These findings offer crucial insights into Late Holocene Ice Sheet readvance.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackerman, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet over the next 20–30 years, but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
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Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long-timescale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Daniel R. Otto, Gerard H. Roe, and John Erich Christian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3309, 2024
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Glaciers respond slowly to changes in climate, meaning that they are not yet adjusted to the present-day level of warming. Using a simple model, we find that the median Alaskan glacier has undergone only 27 % of the retreat necessary to equilibrate to the current climate. Our findings hold even when accounting for large uncertainties, suggesting that substantial retreat is inevitable even if future warming slows or stabilizes.
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Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
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The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
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The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Enze Zhang, Ginny Catania, and Daniel T. Trugman
The Cryosphere, 17, 3485–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3485-2023, 2023
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Glacier termini are essential for studying why glaciers retreat, but they need to be mapped automatically due to the volume of satellite images. Existing automated mapping methods have been limited due to limited automation, lack of quality control, and inadequacy in highly diverse terminus environments. We design a fully automated, deep-learning-based method to produce termini with quality control. We produced 278 239 termini in Greenland and provided a way to deliver new termini regularly.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Evan Carnahan, Ginny Catania, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 16, 4305–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, 2022
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The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
Sophie Goliber, Taryn Black, Ginny Catania, James M. Lea, Helene Olsen, Daniel Cheng, Suzanne Bevan, Anders Bjørk, Charlie Bunce, Stephen Brough, J. Rachel Carr, Tom Cowton, Alex Gardner, Dominik Fahrner, Emily Hill, Ian Joughin, Niels J. Korsgaard, Adrian Luckman, Twila Moon, Tavi Murray, Andrew Sole, Michael Wood, and Enze Zhang
The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022
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Terminus traces have been used to understand how Greenland's glaciers have changed over time; however, manual digitization is time-intensive, and a lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts. We have compiled a dataset of over 39 000 terminus traces for 278 glaciers for scientific and machine learning applications. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
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Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
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Co-editor-in-chief
This paper provides a complete and novel perspective on how to attribute changes in glaciers to anthropogenic warming. It is accessible, well written with clear figures, and will certainly be of interest to the wider community.
This paper provides a complete and novel perspective on how to attribute changes in glaciers to...
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic...
