Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, 2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, 2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
13 Jul 2022
Research article  | Highlight paper | 13 Jul 2022

A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats

John Erich Christian et al.


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-394', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Feb 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on tc-2021-394', Jeremy Bassis, 02 Mar 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (04 May 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by John Erich Christian on behalf of the Authors (07 May 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 May 2022) by Alexander Robinson
This paper provides a complete and novel perspective on how to attribute changes in glaciers to anthropogenic warming. It is accessible, well written with clear figures, and will certainly be of interest to the wider community.
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.