Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022
Research article
04 Jan 2022
Research article | 04 Jan 2022

Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models

Fredrik Boberg et al.

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Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Cited articles

Agosta, C., Favier, V., Krinner, G., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., and Genthon, C.: High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1903-9, 2013. 
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. 
Anthoff, D., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., and Vafeidis, A.: Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea level: A sensitivity analysis, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 96, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK, 2006. 
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. 
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020. 
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).