Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6...
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 17 Sep 2020
Research article | 17 Sep 2020
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Hélène Seroussi et al.
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Cited
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Nonlinear Interactions and Some Other Aspects of Probabilistic Sea Level Projections M. Hieronymus 10.3390/w12113212
- The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
- Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System S. Morley et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.547188
- Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet M. Donat-Magnin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
- An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point A. AlMomani & E. Bollt 10.5194/npg-28-153-2021
- Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model G. Leguy et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021
- Using Camshift and Kalman Algorithm to Trajectory Characteristic Matching of Basketball Players S. Liang et al. 10.1155/2021/4728814
- Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets A. Payne et al. 10.1029/2020GL091741
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain M. Kreuzer et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
- Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
- Drygalski Ice Tongue stability influenced by rift formation and ice morphology C. Indrigo et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.99
- Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
- An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature J. Zhu et al. 10.3390/atmos12020217
- The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
- Implementation of the RCIP scheme and its performance for 1-D age computations in ice-sheet models F. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020
- Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
- Contrasting Response of West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment V. Coulon et al. 10.1029/2020JF006003
- Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record K. Lyu et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01151-1
- ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model W. Lipscomb et al. 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
- Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes A. Quiquet et al. 10.1029/2020GL092141
- Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate‐Change‐Driven Sea Level Rise I. Sepúlveda et al. 10.1029/2021EF002007
- Correlations Between Sea‐Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change E. Lambert et al. 10.1029/2020EF001825
- Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse L. Pan et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abf7787
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. 10.1029/2021JF006191
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2020GL091790
- A unified model for transient subglacial water pressure and basal sliding V. Tsai et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.103
- A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections N. Jourdain et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Could the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea‐Level Rise? D. Gilford et al. 10.1029/2019JF005418
- Assessment of numerical schemes for transient, finite-element ice flow models using ISSM v4.18 T. dos Santos et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021
- Past, Present, and Future Pacific Sea‐Level Change B. Hamlington et al. 10.1029/2020EF001839
- The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica R. DeConto et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
- Comparative analysis of snowfall accumulation over Antarctica in light of Ice discharge and gravity observations from space A. Behrangi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9926
- Ice shelf rift propagation: stability, three-dimensional effects, and the role of marginal weakening B. Lipovsky 10.5194/tc-14-1673-2020
- Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability M. Auger et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-20781-1
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Nonlinear Interactions and Some Other Aspects of Probabilistic Sea Level Projections M. Hieronymus 10.3390/w12113212
- The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
- Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System S. Morley et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.547188
- Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet M. Donat-Magnin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
- An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point A. AlMomani & E. Bollt 10.5194/npg-28-153-2021
- Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model G. Leguy et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021
- Using Camshift and Kalman Algorithm to Trajectory Characteristic Matching of Basketball Players S. Liang et al. 10.1155/2021/4728814
- Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets A. Payne et al. 10.1029/2020GL091741
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain M. Kreuzer et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
- Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
- Drygalski Ice Tongue stability influenced by rift formation and ice morphology C. Indrigo et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.99
- Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
- An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature J. Zhu et al. 10.3390/atmos12020217
- The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
- Implementation of the RCIP scheme and its performance for 1-D age computations in ice-sheet models F. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020
- Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
- Contrasting Response of West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment V. Coulon et al. 10.1029/2020JF006003
- Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record K. Lyu et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01151-1
- ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model W. Lipscomb et al. 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
- Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes A. Quiquet et al. 10.1029/2020GL092141
- Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate‐Change‐Driven Sea Level Rise I. Sepúlveda et al. 10.1029/2021EF002007
- Correlations Between Sea‐Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change E. Lambert et al. 10.1029/2020EF001825
- Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse L. Pan et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abf7787
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. 10.1029/2021JF006191
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2020GL091790
- A unified model for transient subglacial water pressure and basal sliding V. Tsai et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.103
- A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections N. Jourdain et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Could the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea‐Level Rise? D. Gilford et al. 10.1029/2019JF005418
- Assessment of numerical schemes for transient, finite-element ice flow models using ISSM v4.18 T. dos Santos et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021
- Past, Present, and Future Pacific Sea‐Level Change B. Hamlington et al. 10.1029/2020EF001839
- The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica R. DeConto et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
- Comparative analysis of snowfall accumulation over Antarctica in light of Ice discharge and gravity observations from space A. Behrangi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9926
- Ice shelf rift propagation: stability, three-dimensional effects, and the role of marginal weakening B. Lipovsky 10.5194/tc-14-1673-2020
- Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability M. Auger et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-20781-1
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Sep 2021
Special issue
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to...
