Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Sep 2020
| 17 Sep 2020
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Hélène Seroussi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Sophie Nowicki
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Antony J. Payne
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Heiko Goelzer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Cécile Agosta
Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Xylar Asay-Davis
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USA
Alice Barthel
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USA
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Richard Cullather
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Christophe Dumas
Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Rupert Gladstone
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Jonathan M. Gregory
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
Matthew J. Hoffman
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USA
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Klagenfurter Straße 2-4, 28334 Bremen, Germany
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Thomas Kleiner
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Gunter R. Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Daniel P. Lowry
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Chistopher M. Little
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Tyler Pelle
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Stephen F. Price
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USA
Aurélien Quiquet
Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Ronja Reese
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Andrew Shepherd
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Erika Simon
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Fiammetta Straneo
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Luke D. Trusel
Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Jonas Van Breedam
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Chen Zhao
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Tong Zhang
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USA
Thomas Zwinger
CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland
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Latest update: 15 Nov 2025
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to...
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