Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6087-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6087-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 26 Oct 2026
| 26 Oct 2026
Probability indication maps for avalanche runout for decision support in daily traffic rout risk management
Julia Glaus
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
Jan Kleinn
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Lukas Stoffel
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Pia Ruttner
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
Katreen Wikstrom Jones
Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Anchorage, AK, USA
Johan Gaume
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
Yves Bühler
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland
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Adrian Ringenbach, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, and Andrin Caviezel
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Adrian Ringenbach, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, and Andrin Caviezel
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John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
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Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Patrick Barton, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
The Cryosphere, 16, 3517–3530, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3517-2022, 2022
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Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
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Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
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Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
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To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
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This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Natalie Brožová, Tommaso Baggio, Vincenzo D'Agostino, Yves Bühler, and Peter Bebi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3539–3562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3539-2021, 2021
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Surface roughness plays a great role in natural hazard processes but is not always well implemented in natural hazard modelling. The results of our study show how surface roughness can be useful in representing vegetation and ground structures, which are currently underrated. By including surface roughness in natural hazard modelling, we could better illustrate the processes and thus improve hazard mapping, which is crucial for infrastructure and settlement planning in mountainous areas.
Cited articles
Aaron, J., McDougall, S., Kowalski, J., Mitchell, A., and Nolde, N.: Probabilistic prediction of rock avalanche runout using a numerical model, Landslides, 19, 2853–2869, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01939-y, 2022. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: Description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Bartelt, P. and Christen, M.: Snow Avalanche Dynamics with RAMMS::Extended, Technical manual, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland, https://ramms.ch/wp-content/uploads/RAMMS_EXT_Manual.pdf (last access: 20 October 2026), 2025. a
Bartelt, P. and Lehning, M.: A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part I: numerical model, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 35, 123–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(02)00074-5, 2002. a, b
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Short summary
Snow avalanches threaten roads, ski areas, and communities in mountain regions. We present a practical method to create daily maps showing where avalanches are likely to travel and how strong they may be. By combining weather data, snow measurements, and computer simulations, our approach supports safer decisions on road closures and avalanche control and helps protect people and infrastructure.
Snow avalanches threaten roads, ski areas, and communities in mountain regions. We present a...
