Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Sep 2026
Research article |
| 21 Sep 2026
| 21 Sep 2026
Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections
Deparment of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Alexander Robinson
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek
Deparment of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Javier Blasco
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Geosciences Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Marisa Montoya
Deparment of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
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Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
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We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Natalie J. Burls, Nicky M. Wright, R. Paul Acosta, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Edward Gasson, Lennert B. Stap, Gilles Ramstein, Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Agatha M. De Boer, Funda Akgün, David J. Cantrill, Manuel Casas-Gallego, Nela Doláková, Boglarka Erdei, Alex Farnsworth, Sarah Feakins, Ran Feng, Tamara Fletcher, Frédéric Fluteau, J. A. Mattias Green, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, David K. Hutchinson, Dimiter Ivanov, Mine Sezgül Kayseri-Özer, Gregor Knorr, Marianna Kováčová, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Shufeng Li, Xiaoqing Liu, Daniel J. Lunt, Katrin Meissner, Yunfa Miao, Trusha J. Naik, Javier B. Navarro, Joseph B. Novak, Diana Ochoa, Guy J.G. Paxman, Matthew J. Pound, James W. B. Rae, Tammo Reichgelt, Martin Renoult, Francesca Sangiorgi, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Diane Segalla, Pierre Sepulchre, Amelia Shevenell, Sebastian Steinig, Eivind Straume, Caroline A. E. Strömberg, Clay Tabor, Torsten Utescher, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Elżbieta Worobiec, Yurui Zhang, Feng Zhu, Jiang Zhu, Alexandra Auderset, Florence Colleoni, Aisling Dolan, Rachel Havranek, Ann Holbourn, Nicholas Herold, Daeun Lee, James W. Marschalek, Bryce Mitsunaga, Sevi Modestou, Lina Perez-Angel, Mae Saslaw, Sinda Sosdian, Elena Stiles, Yong Sun, Ning Tan, Zhongshi Zhang, and Yan Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3595, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Simulating warm paleoclimates increases our understanding of the mechanisms that drive climatic change and tipping points. The Miocene Epoch, specifically the Miocene Climatic Optimum, has been identified as a particularly valuable past warm climate to simulate, meriting the design of a coordinated Miocene Model Intercomparison Project. Here we synthesize the latest available literature and present the experimental design for coordinated Miocene simulations and sensitivity studies.
Lucía Gutiérrez-González, Ilaria Tabone, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Álvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Britta Grusdt, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3331, 2026
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Britta Grusdt, Mahé Perrette, and Alexander Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2320, 2026
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We provide practical guidelines for producing weighted ensembles of climate models. We distinguish between two approaches, the individual- and the ensemble performance weighting approach, and formulate both in probabilistic terms, making the underlying assumptions transparent. Using constructed examples, we show the advantage of the ensemble weighting approach to account for model co-dependencies and examine how methodological choices affect the climate projections of the weighted ensemble.
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 769–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026, 2026
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This model study sets out to investigate how the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet to a virtually ice-free state due to increasing temperatures depends on the rate of this increase. We find oscillations in ice volume on millennial timescales that impact the time it takes before the ice sheet collapses, concluding that there is a mode of deterministic chaos internal to the ice sheet dynamics.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Erica M. Lucas, Natalya Gomez, Andrew J. Lloyd, Konstantin Latychev, and Jerry X. Mitrovica
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2640, 2026
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Projections of Antarctic ice loss and associated sea level contributions over the coming centuries are linked to glacial isostatic adjustment, a process by which changing ice sheets deform the solid Earth and sea surface. We show that FastIsostasy, a computationally efficient glacial isostatic adjustment model, offers a viable approach for ice sheet modellers to accurately capture solid Earth – ice sheet feedbacks at multi-century timescales.
James R. Jordan, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Abele, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jowan M. Barnes, Tijn Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Javier Blasco, Gong Cheng, Youngmin Choi, Stephen L. Cornford, Cruz Garcia-Molina, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Angelika Humbert, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Marisa Montoya, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Mathieu Morlighem, Tyler Pelle, Alexander Robinson, Martin Rückamp, Hélène Seroussi, Yanmei Tian, Luisa Wagner, Roderick S. W. van de Wal, Liyun Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
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Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
Nils Bochow, Philipp Hess, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 20, 1841–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1841-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1841-2026, 2026
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Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 22, 625–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-625-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-625-2026, 2026
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Almost 3 million years ago, the planet began to experience a succession of cold and warm periods every 40,000 years. However, about 1 million years ago, they began to occur every 100,000 years. In this paper we explore how the change in the basal velocity of the ice sheets could have produced this change in behavior. On the other hand, we also see that in our model, decreasing in time the sensitivity of snowfall to temperature is also an effective mechanism with which to reproduce the records.
Lucía Gutiérrez-González, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Ilaria Tabone, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 20, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026, 2026
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Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Lucía Gutiérrez-González, and Marisa Montoya
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Yanjun Li, Violaine Coulon, Javier Blasco, Gang Qiao, Qinghua Yang, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 19, 4373–4390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, 2025
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We incorporate ice damage processes into an ice-sheet model and apply the new model to Thwaites Glacier. The upgraded model more accurately captures the observed ice mass loss of Thwaites Glacier over 1990–2020. Our simulations show that ice damage has a notable impact on the ice mass loss, grounding-line retreat, ice velocity, and ice thickness of the Thwaites Glacier basin. This study highlights the necessity for incorporating ice damage into ice-sheet models.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3895–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, 2025
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We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix is a computer programme that simulates the movement and temperature evolution in ice sheets. It helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that ice temperatures play an essential role in determining the motion and stability of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
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The climate of the last 3 Myr has varied between cold and warm periods. Numerous independent mechanisms have been proposed to explain this; however, no effort has been made to study their competing effects. Here we present a simple but physically motivated model that includes these mechanisms in a modular way. We identify ice-sheet dynamics and lithosphere displacement as main triggers, but reproducing the climate records additionally requires the natural darkening of ice.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
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We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 20, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, 2024
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In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
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Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023
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We have reconstructed the Laurentide Ice Sheet, located in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago). The absence of direct measurements raises a number of uncertainties. Here we study the impact of different physical laws that describe the friction as the ice slides over its base. We found that the Laurentide Ice Sheet is closest to prior reconstructions when the basal friction takes into account whether the base is frozen or thawed during its motion.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
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In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
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Short summary
Tidal-water intrusions can cause warm ocean water to extend beneath grounded Antarctic ice, increasing submarine melting beyond the grounding line. Here, a new parameterization representing this effect is introduced and tested in the Yelmo ice-sheet model, revealing that tides could amplify ice loss and sea-level rise. This new parameterization shows good agreement with inferred grounding zones.
Tidal-water intrusions can cause warm ocean water to extend beneath grounded Antarctic ice,...
