Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-495-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Inferring the ice sheet sliding law from seismic observations: A Pine Island Glacier case study
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Robert J. Arthern
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
C. Rosie Williams
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Alex M. Brisbourne
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Andrew M. Smith
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
James A. Smith
Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Anna Wåhlin
Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Sridhar Anandakrishnan
Department of Geoscience, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, 16802, USA
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Lev Tarasov, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Kevin Hank, and David Pollard
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9565–9603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9565-2025, 2025
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We document the glacial system model (GSM), a 3D glaciological ice sheet systems model specifically designed for large ensemble modelling in glacial cycle contexts. The model is distinguished by the breadth of relevant processes represented for this context. This ranges from meltwater surface drainage with proglacial lake formation to state-of-the-art subglacial sediment production/transport/deposition. The other key distinguishing design feature is attention to addressing process uncertainties.
Kevin Hank and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 20, 2499–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, 2024
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The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Tom A. Jordan, Karen J. Heywood, Anna Wåhlin, Rob A. Hall, Atsuhiro Muto, Pierre Dutrieux, Kelly Hogan, James Girton, Karen E. Alley, and Erin Pettit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6001, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Solid Earth (SE).
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The shape of the water filled cavity hidden beneath ice shelves is extremely important, but hard to measure. Gravity data collected from aircraft can be used to predict the shape. However, in the Dotson Crosson ice shelves in West Antarctica, new direct observations from autonomous platforms sent beneath the ice, and seismic observations from the ice surface showed gravity models were systematically too shallow. We explain why and provide a solution applicable her and in other ice shelves.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Lev Tarasov, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Kevin Hank, and David Pollard
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9565–9603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9565-2025, 2025
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We document the glacial system model (GSM), a 3D glaciological ice sheet systems model specifically designed for large ensemble modelling in glacial cycle contexts. The model is distinguished by the breadth of relevant processes represented for this context. This ranges from meltwater surface drainage with proglacial lake formation to state-of-the-art subglacial sediment production/transport/deposition. The other key distinguishing design feature is attention to addressing process uncertainties.
Felipe Napoleoni, Michael J. Bentley, Neil Ross, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, José A. Uribe, Jonathan Oberreuter, Rodrigo Zamora, Andrés Rivera, Andrew M. Smith, Robert G. Bingham, and Kenichi Matsuoka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4670, 2025
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We mapped buried layers inside West Antarctic ice using ice penetrating radar across 13,000 km² near the Amundsen–Weddell divide. Some layers may be as old as 17k years. They appear neat in slow ice and warped where ice speeds up, yet can be followed across most of the area. Snowfall has long been higher on one side, suggesting the divide has remained stable for millennia. Our work links records from the Weddell and Amundsen seas and helps target future climate archives and models.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
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We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Álvaro Arenas-Pingarrón, Alex M. Brisbourne, Carlos Martín, Hugh F. J. Corr, Carl Robinson, Tom A. Jordan, and Paul V. Brennan
The Cryosphere, 19, 4657–4670, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4657-2025, 2025
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Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging is essential for deep englacial observations. Each pixel is formed by averaging the radar echoes within an antenna beamwidth, but the echo diversity is lost after the average. We improve the SAR interpretation if three sub-images are formed with different sub-beamwidths: each is coloured in red, green, or blue, and they are overlapped, creating a coloured image. Interpreters will better identify the slopes of internal layers, crevasses, and layer roughness.
Ole Zeising, Álvaro Arenas-Pingarrón, Alex M. Brisbourne, and Carlos Martín
The Cryosphere, 19, 2355–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2355-2025, 2025
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Ice crystal orientation influences how glacier ice deforms. Radar polarimetry is commonly used to study the bulk ice crystal orientation, but the often used coherence method only provides information of the shallow ice in fast-flowing areas. This study shows that reducing the bandwidth of high-bandwidth radar data significantly enhances the depth limit of the coherence method. This improvement helps us to better understand ice dynamics in fast-flowing ice streams.
Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Bryne, and Tamsin L. Edwards
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2315, 2025
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At least since we started measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know if climate change is responsible. In this work, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.
Asmara A. Lehrmann, Rebecca L. Totten, Julia S. Wellner, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Svetlana Radionovskaya, R. Michael Comas, Robert D. Larter, Alastair G. C. Graham, James D. Kirkham, Kelly A. Hogan, Victoria Fitzgerald, Rachel W. Clark, Becky Hopkins, Allison P. Lepp, Elaine Mawbey, Rosemary V. Smyth, Lauren E. Miller, James A. Smith, and Frank O. Nitsche
J. Micropalaeontol., 44, 79–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-44-79-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-44-79-2025, 2025
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Thwaites Glacier's retreat is driven by warm ocean water melting its ice shelf. Seafloor-dwelling marine protists, benthic foraminifera, reflect their environment. Here, ice margins, oceanography, and sea ice cover control live foraminiferal populations. Including dead foraminifera in the analyses shows the calcareous test preservation's role in the assemblage make-up. Understanding these modern communities helps interpret past glacial retreat controls through foraminifera in sediment records.
Kevin Hank and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 20, 2499–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, 2024
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The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
Benjamin A. Keisling, Joerg M. Schaefer, Robert M. DeConto, Jason P. Briner, Nicolás E. Young, Caleb K. Walcott, Gisela Winckler, Allie Balter-Kennedy, and Sridhar Anandakrishnan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2427, 2024
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Understanding how much the Greenland ice sheet melted in response to past warmth helps better predicting future sea-level change. Here we present a framework for using numerical ice-sheet model simulations to provide constraints on how much mass the ice sheet loses before different areas become ice-free. As observations from subglacial archives become more abundant, this framework can guide subglacial sampling efforts to gain the most robust information about past ice-sheet geometries.
Indrani Das, Jowan Barnes, James Smith, Renata Constantino, Sidney Hemming, and Laurie Padman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1564, 2024
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George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) on the Antarctic Peninsula is currently thinning and the glaciers feeding it are accelerating. Geologic evidence indicates that GVIIS had disintegrated several thousand years ago due to ocean and atmosphere warming. Here, we use remote sensing and numerical modeling to show that strain thinning reduces buttressing of grounded ice, creating a positive feedback of accelerated ice inflow to the southern GVIIS, likely making it more vulnerable than the northern sector.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
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A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Allison P. Lepp, Lauren E. Miller, John B. Anderson, Matt O'Regan, Monica C. M. Winsborrow, James A. Smith, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Julia S. Wellner, Lindsay O. Prothro, and Evgeny A. Podolskiy
The Cryosphere, 18, 2297–2319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2297-2024, 2024
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Shape and surface texture of silt-sized grains are measured to connect marine sediment records with subglacial water flow. We find that grain shape alteration is greatest in glaciers where high-energy drainage events and abundant melting of surface ice are inferred and that the surfaces of silt-sized sediments preserve evidence of glacial transport. Our results suggest grain shape and texture may reveal whether glaciers previously experienced temperate conditions with more abundant meltwater.
Thomas Samuel Hudson, Alex M. Brisbourne, Sofia-Katerina Kufner, J.-Michael Kendall, and Andy M. Smith
The Cryosphere, 17, 4979–4993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4979-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes (or icequakes) at glaciers can shed light on fundamental glacier processes. These include glacier slip, crevassing, and imaging ice structure. To date, most studies use networks of seismometers, primarily sensitive to icequakes within the spatial extent of the network. However, arrays of seismometers allow us to detect icequakes at far greater distances. Here, we investigate the potential of such array-processing methods for studying icequakes at glaciers.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Michael J. Bentley, James A. Smith, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Margaret R. Lindeman, Brice R. Rea, Angelika Humbert, Timothy P. Lane, Christopher M. Darvill, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Fiamma Straneo, Veit Helm, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1821–1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, 2023
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Some of its outlet glaciers and ice shelves have been breaking up and retreating, with inflows of warm ocean water identified as the likely reason. Here we report direct measurements of warm ocean water in an unusual lake that is connected to the ocean beneath the ice shelf in front of the 79° N Glacier. This glacier has not yet shown much retreat, but the presence of warm water makes future retreat more likely.
James A. Smith, Louise Callard, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Timothy P. Lane, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Erin L. McClymont, Christopher M. Darvill, Brice R. Rea, Colm O'Cofaigh, Pauline Gulliver, Werner Ehrmann, Richard S. Jones, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1247–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, 2023
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The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerating rate. To understand the significance of these changes we reconstruct the history of one of its fringing ice shelves, known as 79° N ice shelf. We show that the ice shelf disappeared 8500 years ago, following a period of enhanced warming. An important implication of our study is that 79° N ice shelf is susceptible to collapse when atmospheric and ocean temperatures are ~2°C warmer than present, which could occur by the middle of this century.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Alex M. Brisbourne, Michael Kendall, Sofia-Katerina Kufner, Thomas S. Hudson, and Andrew M. Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 3443–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3443-2021, 2021
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How ice sheets flowed in the past is written into the structure and texture of the ice sheet itself. Measuring this structure and properties of the ice can help us understand the recent behaviour of the ice sheets. We use a relatively new technique, not previously attempted in Antarctica, to measure the seismic vibrations of a fibre optic cable down a borehole. We demonstrate the potential of this technique to unravel past ice flow and see hints of these complex signals from the ice flow itself.
Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Erin L. McClymont, Nicole J. Bale, Ellen C. Hopmans, Stefan Schouten, Juliane Müller, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Claire Allen, Torsten Bickert, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Elaine Mawbey, Victoria Peck, Aleksandra Svalova, and James A. Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, 2021
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Long-term ocean temperature records are needed to fully understand the impact of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are powerful tools for reconstructing ocean temperature but can be difficult to apply to the Southern Ocean. Our results show active GDGT synthesis in relatively warm depths of the ocean. This research improves the application of GDGT palaeoceanographic proxies in the Southern Ocean.
Huw J. Horgan, Laurine van Haastrecht, Richard B. Alley, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Lucas H. Beem, Knut Christianson, Atsuhiro Muto, and Matthew R. Siegfried
The Cryosphere, 15, 1863–1880, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1863-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1863-2021, 2021
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The grounding zone marks the transition from a grounded ice sheet to a floating ice shelf. Like Earth's coastlines, the grounding zone is home to interactions between the ocean, fresh water, and geology but also has added complexity and importance due to the overriding ice. Here we use seismic surveying – sending sound waves down through the ice – to image the grounding zone of Whillans Ice Stream in West Antarctica and learn more about the nature of this important transition zone.
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Co-editor-in-chief
This study uses a novel approach to extract information on the subglacial system, one of the least observed regions on our planet. The central idea is to combine satellite-derived information on ice-flow velocities with numerical models of subglacial conditions, and then test the results against seismic observations. In this way, the study introduces a direct, testable link between model predictions of effective pressure and independent constraints derived from seismic acoustic impedance data. This conceptually significant step forward advances our ability to constrain basal conditions of ice streams.
This study uses a novel approach to extract information on the subglacial system, one of the...
Short summary
The slipperiness at the ice base is a key uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Alternative formulations of the sliding law exist, but limited access to the ice base makes it difficult to validate them. We introduce a new approach using observations and model output to infer a basal sliding law. For Pine Island Glacier, currently the largest single contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica, the results provide support for a Coulomb-type sliding law and widespread low effective pressures.
The slipperiness at the ice base is a key uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Alternative...